Since DRA recently released PVI’s for Arizona here’s a 10 district map for 2020 redistricting. The goal of this redistrict was to shore up the 1st, make the 2nd more democratic and make sure the newest district would be democratic. This was a result of about 7 other experimental redistricts, many of which looked quite ugly. This one seemed to achieve a nice combination between compactness and democratic partisan lean.
District 1 (blue): The new first district has both a lot in common with a lot different from the old first. The primary difference is shortening the arm into Maricopa County into just parts of Pinal County. I also added the entirety of Cochise and Santa Cruz County. I also cleaned up the one precinct in Mohave since it bugged me and didn’t make a dramatic difference. The result of this made it a bit closer then the current first with a PVI of about R+1, one point closer than the old first. Even though Trump likely still one this district I imagine it moving to the left more and more making O’Halleran and his eventual successor fairly safe if they remain popular and if they can keep Hispanic and Native American turnout up.
District 2 (green): This district is now entirely within Pima County thus making it more democrat leaning and what can only be perceived as a purely Tucson based district. If Kirkpatrick wins in 2018 (which I expect she will) I have no doubt she can hold it for a while after. However in the case of a republican winning here I doubt they could hold it in this new map.
District 3 (purple): This is the district on this map that I’m least happy about. The reason for this is I made it more competitive by taking out very democratic parts of Tucson and added a small amount more of Maricopa County. With a PVI of only about 6 I’m just slightly concerned about Grijalva since he’s a raging liberal in a potentially competitive district. The one factor that makes me feel a bit more confident is that it’s near majority hispanic and I’m almost sure moved to the left. It also looks a lot cleaner than the old third since it lost the arm into Yuma.
District 4 (red): This has little difference from the old fourth with the simple removal of the more suburban Phoenix areas while adding the rest of Yuma County. Paul Gosar will be fine since he’s very conservative in a very conservative district.
District 5 (yellow): This is almost the exact same I just took away a few precincts in the north. Biggs will run and be fine.
District 6 (teal): The new sixth lost areas closer to the inner city part of Phoenix and gained the outer areas of Maricopa County that used to be in the fourth. The largest cities or suburban areas here are Scottsdale and Apache Junction as well as David Schweikert’s home of Fountain Hills. He’ll sail to victory in what’s the state’s whitest district and quite republican at R+14.
District 7 (gray): This new district isn’t all too different aside from the fact it lost areas in the north as well as gaining a large amount of Pinal County. It isn’t as democratic as the old seventh or hispanic but it’s still pretty safe for the democrats. I think Gallego can win fairly easier even though it’s now only 47% hispanic and has a PVI of D+7.
District 8 (lavender): Trent Franks should be fine since the PVI has barely changed and kept almost the exact same shape.
District 9 (cyan): This district hasn’t changed dramatically since it’s still Tempe based and whoever wins in 2018 (likely Stanton) should safely hold it even though it’s technically more competitive. It also gained Paradise Valley while losing the arm that reached into the center of Phoenix.
District 10 (pink): This new 10th is a combination of all the more democratic or swingy areas of the suburban republican areas and parts of the old 7th and 10th. It has the same PVI as the 9th at D+3. This one’s also a bit more Hispanic at about 40%.
I actually think this is a redistrict that could appeal to all current incumbents except for maybe Grijalva. Seeing how McSally is running for the senate I and I expect Kirkpatrick to win, Arizona will have a 5D-4R delegation. This redistrict should appeal to all republican incumbents since all of their districts are made safer.