No serious economists believe the GOP's tax bill will drive economic growth. N(one). Almost twice as many Americans oppose the bill as support it, with support flagging in multiple polls. Yet Republicans are barreling toward passage at warp speed, ignoring North Korea's missile launch, the collapse of the State Department and American diplomacy, and the anti-Muslim Trump tweets that caused an international incident. Why?
Almost entirely because their fundraising coffers are starting to run dry. It's not the economy, stupid, it's the donors. Check out this “Mad as Hell” reporting from Mother Jones' Russ Choma documenting the complete collapse of the GOP fundraising pipeline.
The Bundler: Republican lobbyist Bill Miller from Austin, TX
“I’m not saying they’ve cut them off for good, but they have cut them off temporarily,” Miller says. “This conversation has been repeated more than a few times, ‘Not going to give right now, Bill, I’m just mad. Nah, not going to give right now.'”
The Donor: Arizona-based oil drilling CEO, Dan Eberhart
He donated about $200,000 in the last election to campaigns and super-PACs. Much of that, he directed to the Republican Party itself: $70,000 to the Republican National Committee and $15,000 to the National Republican Senatorial Committee, the party’s campaign arm supporting Senate candidates. This year, he’s holding back. [...]
“I don’t know why donors should give to the NRSC until tax reform is passed,” Eberhart says. “Thanks for [Supreme Court Justice Neil] Gorsuch, but you haven’t otherwise used the majority.”
The Machine: The National Republican Senatorial Committee & Republican National Committee
Through the first six months of 2017, the NRSC raised an average of $4.6 million per month. But since July, after the GOP’s effort to repeal Obamacare flopped, it has raised an average of $2.1 million.
The Republican National Committee has fared better but also appears to be suffering. In October, the RNC raised about $9.1 million, far more than the $3.9 million raised by its Democratic equivalent. But it was the committee’s second-lowest month of fundraising this year, making up less than half of what it raised in January, when enthusiasm for President Donald Trump and a GOP-controlled Congress was at its peak.
The Dark Money:
Miller says the anger from donors he knows is wider and deeper—and worse than the numbers reflect. There are too many “black holes,” such as super-PACs and dark-money groups, to fully grasp the scale of the drop-off, he says, but it is significant.
“I just know in my experience, the people I’ve talked to write big checks, and big checks to a lot of different places and a lot of different people, and they’re not writing any checks to anybody—to anyone, anywhere,” he says.
The Poacher:
Perhaps more dangerous for Republican leaders is that Stephen Bannon, Trump’s ousted strategist who has declared war on the GOP establishment, has been sidling up to donors, including Eberhart, who says he’s spoken to the Breitbart head numerous times. Eberhart says Bannon hasn’t hit him up for cash yet, but he’s been impressed with Bannon’s vision. [...]
Bannon’s pivot to fundraising mode may already be happening. Axios reported last week that Bannon had established a politically active nonprofit—a dark-money group—to fundraise and promote his agenda.
Congressional Republicans are running scared for their political lives. Dragging the country down a dark, unexplored rabbit hole that will decimate the middle class is of no concern to them.