POST FINAL!!! UPDATE (7) 9;28PM Jones is running ahead of his benchmarks in the big counties. What I suggest you do is go to this NY Times link and you can click on the map of counties to compare percentages to the benchmarks David Jarman set up.
More important, there is if you scroll down a live prediction that gets adjusted as result come in. As I post this it has Jones at 76% chance of winning and a margin of 4.6%. Keep hope alive!!!
And this is my FINAL update, for real. It has been fun. And since I get up for school at 4 AM, I will be around no later than 10:30.
FINAL UPDATE (6) 9:16 PM at least so far it looks at percentages being reported show Jones running ahead of benchmarks set by David Jarman in this post. If those numbers were to hold, and if in fact the turnout is up in Dem strongholds, Jones will pull out. And Steve Kornacki is reporting that Moore is running behind what he did in 2012 in several rural Republican counties. Keep hoping.
UPDATE 5 8:30 PM putting this here to make it easier to see. I note MSNBC has it as “too early” and not “too close.” Looking at the additional data in the exit polls I am sad to say it seems to tilt narrowly towards Moore
Women 57-42 Jones, Men 57-40 Moore — that may be a wash, BUT the exit polls say the electorate was evenly split between M and W, which would give Moore a slight edge
BUT while 30% in Black,and Jones is winning 95% of those, the Whites are breaking 70-27 for Moore. While the Black vote being up is hopeful, the White vote is not. Projecting out that Whites are 65% of electorate
.30 X .95 = .285
.65 x .27 = .1755
ADDED TOGETHER IS .4605
Doing the same on the Moore side
.30 x .05 = .015
.65 x .70 = .455 .470
STILL — on either M v W or Black v White I am surprised it is not too close to call, since each projects out to be about a 1% margin.
Some reporting on exits say late deciders broke for Moore. I wonder if the mess over the yearbook not having been clear might have been just enough to put Moore over.
Still holding hope. For example, what Steve Kornacki reported in the one rural county with significant returns Moore is not doing any better than he did in his last chief Justice race.
should make people here hopeful, or even more so.
On Morning Joe this morning there was commentary about how heavy absentees were in areas where the vote is going to favor Jones, such as Tuscaloosa and in Madison County (Huntsvlle).
We are are hearing multiple reports of turnout that is approaching Presidential (2016) levels, both in traditionally more Dem areas and especially in the African American Community.
And then I commend to your attention the following Twitter thread by Al Giordano:
I stand on what I said a few days ago- I still think Jones wins
we’ll see. But I would not be surprised at an earlier than expected call.
UPDATE 6:18 PM First, surprised at the traffic. Just threw up there to provide a little anecdotal information.
Second, sorry but just getting back to this now — I had to interview an interesting young man applying to my alma mater, Haverford College.
Third, what I have seen of the exit polls does not tell me a heck of a lot. That a lot of people did not think the allegations mattered much in their deciding their vote can be misleading — a chunk of those voting against Moore will have done so for reasons having nothing to do with the allegations. That 40% did ….well, I actually view that as a possible positive as much as a positive negative.
Fourth, the even split (48-48) on approval of Trump is in my opinion good news for Jones, since we know that some of those supporting Jones will still approve of Trump.
Fifth — I am most fascinated by the polling on desire for which party controls the Senate — 43% Democrat versus 51% Republican. That is VERY LOW for Republicans given the normal patterns in Alabama. Again, there will be those who want Republican control who will be voting for Jones, among other reasons that if Jones wins it does not flip the Senate.
I have a ton of papers to grade and get into the computer tonight, so I won’t have much time for this. I will scan the comments as I can.
Peace.
UPDATE 2 6:49 PM: thought people might want to see this tweet:
Yes, it is a couple of hours ago, but it is congruent with the other anecdotal evidence I am hearing/seeing.
Also worth noting that Birmingham is base for Jones.
UPDATE 3 6:55 PM: courtesy from a tweet by Mark Murray of NBC:
An interesting factoid, for whatever it means.
UPDATE 4 7:13 PM take a look at this
key takeaway — In very Republican Shelby County, the increase in turnout is apparently driven by young people and Blacks. Make of it what you will