One of the key things pundits were noting about the AL Senate race is the remarkable change, county by county, from Trump’s margins to what were the margins for Doug Jones. We saw swings of up to 40 points, and this was largely attributed to the flaws of Moore as a candidate.
But what if we saw similar swings in multiple districts in a state where there was no candidate with the kind of flaws Moore was carrying?
Try Iowa.
Try reading It’s Time For Iowa Republicans To Start Panicking, at Iowa Starting Line, which bills itself as “Your Home for Iowa Political News.”
Allow me to share the beginning of the piece:
The 2018 election may still be a long ways off in a political climate that can change rapidly on a daily basis, but all the data points for a good Democratic year in Iowa are starting to stack up. A string of special elections for state legislative seats have consistently seen massive margin swings to Democrats, culminating in last night’s Northwest Iowa race where a Democrat pulled within ten points in a district Donald Trump won by 41 points. Add that to the national political mood with a deeply unpopular president, a stunning victory by a Democrat in Alabama and Governor Kim Reynolds’ concerning reelection numbers, and you’ve got the recipe for a potential blue wave in Iowa in 2018.
The party in complete control of government often faces difficult challenges in non-presidential year elections, but things really are starting to look very good for Democrats in the state that swung the hardest to Trump. Consider the vote margins in four Iowa special elections since the 2016 presidential race. In a district where Trump won by 21 points, a Democrat took the special election by 10. In another one where Hillary Clinton won by 11 points, the Democrat dominated with a 45-point win in the special election.
And what’s so remarkable about the margin shifts over 2016 is just how consistent they are.
A 32-point shift for Democrats in Davenport’s Senate District 45.
A 34-point shift for Democrats in Davenport’s House District 89.
A 31-point shift for Democrats in the Fairfield-based House District 82.
A 31-point shift for Democrats in Northwest Iowa’s Senate District 3.
Now we have a clear trend. (There was a fifth special election in Southwest Iowa, but a paperwork snafu kept the Democrat off the ballot – he still got 20% with write-ins.)
Yes, it is true that we have not YET won a special election for a vacant Republican leaning House seat, although we have in the four so far significantly outperformed the results in those districts from 2016.
And then there are the special elections we have won in Deep Red districts in Deep Red Oklahoma.
We are seeing a major shift across the country, a shift in the direction of the Democrats.
I think the wave has already begun, and as we get closer to next November, it is getting larger.
Could this be a tsunami election?
Stay tuned.
UPDATE 8:22 PM and now this from the Des Moines Register:
Iowa Poll: 60 percent of Iowans disapprove of Donald Trump's job performance
from which I quote
Sixty percent of respondents to this month’s Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll say the United States has gotten off on the wrong track, and 60 percent likewise disapprove of the job Trump, a Republican, is doing as president.
Two more snips. First this:
The Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer and Co. of Des Moines, questioned 802 Iowa adults Dec. 3-6 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
Seltzer is considered the gold standard of polling in Iowa.
And this:
Sixty-nine percent of women, 68 percent of Iowans making less than $50,000 a year, 67 percent of city-dwellers and 62 percent of independents disapprove of his performance.