Bear with me. Unlike Virginia, where I live, I have no special expertise in the politics of Alabama.
But I am seeing a number of things that remind me of November. Then, like now, the polls were mixed and pundits were saying they were expecting Gillespie would win, rather than Northam. Oh, and Jones is in some ways very much like Northam, in that he is not viewed as being an exciting candidate (of course neither was Gillespie). One can say the Moore excites people but there is some evidence that the resulting excitement is more negative towards him than positive.
Alabama has restored the voting rights of some 60,000 former felons. I do not know how many of them will vote, but I am guessing that in a relatively low turn-out election (more about turnout anon) it could be enough to make a small difference, and I expect those of the 60,000 who vote will tilt fairly substantally Democratic, just as they did in Virginia.
From what I am reading and hearing, Moore has almost no ground game, and Jones has put a LOT of money and effort into a ground game. That is also similar to what we saw in Virginia.
There are some difference from Virginia. Jones and his supporters are doing a lot more advertising, at least a 5-1 ratio. That helps raise familiarity with the voters, which is important.
I remember that in 2016 Moore ran more than 20 points behind Romney, and won his election back to the Chief Justice position by less than 4% — and that was before he was removed from that position for the 2nd time, and before the stories about his predatory behavior.
We are seeing evidence of some notable Republican either refusing to vote for Moore (think Sen. Richard Shelby, whose decision not to support Moore is now featured in an ad by Jones), or visibly supporting Jones — think not only of the contribution tweeted by Sen. Jeff Flake, but also a number of notable Republican consultants who are supporting Jones. That won’t matter to the vast majority of Trump supporters, but political elites will be aware, and it may give them some justification not only not to support Moore but rather to support Jones.
Evan McMullin controls a PAC which has just dumped $500,000 into advertising against Moore. McMullin was NOT on the ballot in AL in 2016, but Gary Johnson drew 2.1%. Somehow I do not see those Libertarian supporters as likely to support a theocrat like Moore.
Recent news stories having nothing to do with Moore’s predatory sexual behavior also might hurt him — I am pretty sure his comments seeming to indicate he thought America was best when we still had slaves will resonate in the African-American community and might result in a larger turnout there. His comments about women not being fit to hold office will contribute to the gender gap even beyond his sexual behavior.
And from what I can ascertain, there seems to be indications of a larger than expected turnout. While I suppose that can be interpreted a number of ways, my sense is the additional turnout is likely to favor Jones — people who are embarrassed by Moore. The business community is indicating they are worried what Moore’s election could mean for the stage’s economy. Some Young Republicans have indicated their displeasure with Moore. At least some major newspapers in the state have made clear they do not want Moore, for whatever impact that might have.
So I have no expertise. But when I hear of a surfeit of Jones yard signs in one wealthy traditionally Republican community, and an almost total lack of Moore signs in another, I think we are seeing indications that also remind me of Virginia.
And then there is this, also like Virginia. The likely voter screens will be eliminating people who did not vote in the last election, but chose to get registered to vote this time. The increase in requests for absentee ballots indicating a higher turnout is also similar to what we saw in Virginia. I have not analyzed where those increases are as I did in Virginia, but somehow I remember how narrowly Moore won in 2016, and given recent news am inclined to think more people coming out to vote are far more likely to be doing so to vote AGAINST Moore than for him.
So in a few days we will see. If you push me to make a prediction, I would guess Jones wins by 3%, but the margin could be larger.
Of course, I could be totally wrong.
And now I am going to have a bourbon and watch Rachel.
Peace?
BRIEF UPDATE 10.9 10:32 AM I have read through all the comments, have listened to more Moore commentary and I have not changed my mind. I am quite well aware that I do not know Alabama the way I do Virginia. And I am quite well aware I could be wrong. I made both of those points in what I originally posted.
BUT — I actually think Trump actively campaigning for Moore helps Jones. It reminds a lot of people of why they don’t like Trump. And I note that the latest Pew polls shows White Evangelical support for Trump has dropped 17 points, now only 70%. And his active entry into the race does nationalize it a bit.
Are there things Jones could have done better in the campaign? Yep. The same was said of Northam. Are there legitimate concerns of whether the Black community will turn out? Perhaps, but the same was said about Northam. The one legitimate difference is the lack of down ballot candidates actively organizing on their own behalf who in Virginia did make a difference, one I would estimate as perhaps 2 or at most 3% statewide. But Northam won by almost 9%. Oh, and despite the predictions of pundits that it would be the other way,those deciding late broke heavily for Northam. And I think that the mix of poll results might well motivated people who might otherwise have felt that Jones had no chance to turn out and vote for him.
We’ll see in a couple of days, won’t we? If I am wrong, people will remind me of this post. If I am right, I will be just satisfied that we got a decent man to the US Senate instead of a dominionist (I refuse to consider Moore a Christian), islamophobe, homophobe, misogynist.