Leading Off
● TN-Gov: After his nomination to become secretary of the Army failed, GOP state Sen. Mark Green said he would decide whether to reenter the race after Memorial Day. As we previously wrote, Green's bid to serve in Trump's administration ran aground over his long history of disparaging remarks about Muslims and LGBT people, but it seems to have only raised his profile with prominent religious conservatives back home. However, one of Green's likeminded colleagues decided to act before Green did, and her gamble may actually pay off.
State Sen. Mae Beavers, an ardent social conservative who is still trying to define marriage in Tennessee as between one man and one woman, announced on Saturday that she would seek the GOP nomination. Earlier this year, Beavers also led the successful drive to pass a resolution declaring that pornography is a "public health crisis" is part because it "has a detrimental effect on the family as it is linked to lessening desire in young men to marry, dissatisfaction in marriage, and infidelity." It's unclear if Beavers has the connections to run a serious campaign, but she definitely would be competing for the same pool of religious conservative primary voters as Green, and Green seems to recognize that. Both state senators also hail from Middle Tennessee, so they could also cost each other votes if geography is a major factor in the primary.
On Sunday, right after Beavers entered the race, Green told Clarksvillenow.com that her campaign "kind of makes us have to recalculate the numbers," and added that "[t]he question is, do we still have a path? My team is looking at that now." Green still insists that he has made a decision, but he won't announce it until the end of the week. Two wealthy Republicans, state Higher Education Commission member Bill Lee and ex-Economic and Community Development Commissioner Randy Boyd, are already running, while a number of others are considering.
Senate
● AL-Sen: Last week, appointed Sen. Luther Strange earned an endorsement from the National Rifle Association ahead of the August GOP special election primary. It's unclear how much the NRA plans to get involved here, but their backing carries plenty of weight with GOP voters.
● OH-Sen: Earlier this month, GOP state Treasurer Josh Mandel got some good news when well-funded Rep. Pat Tiberi announced that he would not enter the primary. However, while Sen. Rob Portman proceeded to urge Republicans to consolidate behind Mandel, who is seeking a second shot at Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, plenty of Ohio Republicans simply do not want Mandel as their standard bearer. Mandel lost to Brown 51-45 in 2012, something Tiberi made sure to note after he decided not to run, and allies of Gov. John Kasich aren't fans of the Trumpesque state treasurer either.
Mandel's intra-party skeptics are hoping someone will step up to challenge him in the primary, and BuzzFeed's Henry Gomez reports that they're encouraging J.D. Vance, the author of the best-selling memoir Hillbilly Elegy, to run. Vance, whose book discussed growing up poor in working-class Appalachia, has been working with Jai Chabria, a former top Kasich advisor. Gomez also says there has been "more casual talk" of Vance running for governor. However, a number of influential Republicans are already campaigning to succeed the termed-out Kasich, and it sounds far less likely that Vance will seek that office.
Chabria did nothing to shoot down any speculation that Vance may run for the Senate or possibly for governor, simply saying that "[t]here is plenty of time to have that conversation at the right time." While Vance may appeal to GOP donors, he could have an incredibly tough time adjusting to modern day GOP politics. Vance volunteered that he backed conservative independent Evan McMullin over Donald Trump last year, which would likely be a huge black mark against him in a primary. It's unclear if any other noteworthy Republicans are eyeing this race. In April, Politico reported that investment banker Michael Gibbons was considering, but we've heard nothing from him since.
Gubernatorial
● AK-Gov: Next year's race for governor of Alaska may be the most unpredictable contest in America. While independent Gov. Bill Walker sounds likely to seek a second term, he hasn't committed to it, and his team says he won't make any announcements before the special legislative session ends in mid-June. And if Walker does run again, no one has any idea if he'd campaign as an independent again, or if he'd instead seek the GOP or Democratic nomination.
If Walker does seek a second term, his prospects are from clear even without factoring in his party affiliation. As we've mentioned before, Walker has spent his whole term fighting legislative Republicans who refuse to face up to Alaska's extraordinary budget crisis brought on by falling oil prices. Walker has pushed for policies like reinstating the state income tax that are likely unpopular, but may be the only way to fix Alaska's budget. Alaska doesn't get polled very often, so we don't have a good sense for how voters are reacting to Walker.
According to the Alaska Dispatch News' Nathaniel Herz, there's plenty of speculation that Walker will run under a party banner… but it's anyone's guess which party banner. Walker was a longtime Republican who challenged GOP Gov. Sean Parnell in the 2010 primary and lost 50-33. Four years later, Walker ran against Parnell as an independent. Late in the race, Democratic nominee Byron Mallott dropped out of the race and became Walker's running mate, making Walker the de facto Democratic candidate: The Walker-Mallott ticket ended up unseating Parnell 48-46. Mallott himself isn't saying much about what the governor is planning, only telling Herz that the two are "very happy together," and that "[w]hen the special session is over, we'll likely have an announcement of some kind."
If Walker does run again as an independent, it's not clear if he could count on the same type of Democratic support he got in 2014. The state party recently changed their rules to allow an independent to run in the Democratic primary, and they've filed a lawsuit against the state to try and implement this change. The Alaska Democratic Party's executive director says that they're not sure how they'd work with Walker in a 2018 campaign if he decides to run as an independent again.
A few Republicans are considering running in what is usually a conservative state. State Sen. Mike Dunleavy, who represents the Anchorage suburb of Wasilla (aka Sarah Palin's old stomping grounds) didn't rule out a bid a few months ago, and he told Herz that he expects to decide in June. Dunleavy recently left the Republican caucus after he refused to support the state budget, which Dunleavy said didn't have enough cuts.
Two new Republicans also tell Herz that they're considering. Businessman Scott Hawkins, whose company works with mining and oil and gas companies, says he'll spend the rest of 2017 exploring a bid. Hawkins has worked with a business-backed GOP super PAC called the Accountability Project, which just happens to be headquartered in the offices of Hawkins' company. Last year, the Accountability Project targeted two moderate Republican state House members in primaries largely over their support for an oil tax credit that was anathema to the oil industry, and also to stop them from joining a coalition with the Democratic state House minority. One of those targeted Republicans lost his primary, but state Rep. Paul Seaton survived and ended up forming that dreaded coalition with four other Republicans and the chamber's 17 Democrats.
GOP state Rep. Mike Chenault, who spent eight years as speaker before the bipartisan coalition took control last year, also says he's considering a run for governor. Chenault, who now serves as the chamber's minority whip, didn't provide much detail to Herz, just saying that he's thinking about it but "not a lot right now because we're in session."
A few other GOP names have also surfaced over the past few months. Back in February, the local blog Midnight Sun wrote that there was "a lot of chatter" that Loren Leman, who served as lieutenant governor from 2002 to 2006, was assembling a campaign, but we've heard nothing since then. In May, the conservative Must Read Alaska reported that state Senate President Pete Kelly was being encouraged to run, but there have been no new developments. Parnell also didn't quite rule out a comeback bid about a month ago.
On the Democratic side, most of the speculation is revolving around ex-Sen. Mark Begich, a former Anchorage mayor. Begich narrowly lost re-election during the 2014 GOP wave, and he briefly considered running a write-in campaign against GOP Sen. Lisa Murkowski last year. Begich hasn't ruled out running for governor, and he didn't rule anything out when he spoke to Herz.
● IL-Gov: Billionaire venture capitalist J.B. Pritzker is up with yet another commercial very far ahead of the March 2018 Democratic primary. (Get used to a variation of that sentence for some time to come.) This one features an African American man named Dana Holland describing how he was falsely convicted of rape. After 10 years in prison, a DNA test acquitted Holland, and he proceeds to praise Pritzker as one of the people who stood by him, and on-screen text describes the candidate as "a champion of getting innocent men and women the justice they deserve." Pritzker also recently picked up an endorsement from the Associated Fire Fighters of Illinois.
● NJ-Gov: With one week to go before the primary, some long shot candidates are taking to the airwaves. On the Democratic side, Assemblyman John Wisniewski is up with what his campaign is calling a "significant buy [that] will see the ad run on broadcast and cable in both the Philadelphia and New York media markets." The commercial notes that Donald Trump surrounds himself with former Goldman Sachs bankers, and hey, primary frontrunner Phil Murphy is also a former Goldman Sachs executive! The narrator goes on to charge Goldman Sachs with causing the Great Recession and accuses Murphy of trying to buy the election. The second half of the ad praises Wisniewski for uncovering the Bridgegate scandal.
On the GOP side, little-known businessman Hirsh Singh is spending $300,000 on a TV and radio buy, which won't go very far in this incredibly expensive state. Singh's first (and likely only) TV ad touts his engineering background.
● OH-Gov: With the unlikely success of Donald Trump, it was only a matter of time before the Democrats went casting about for their own unpredictable, populist-scented, and somewhat-debased reality TV show host. And it may take the form of Jerry Springer, who has given voice to the nation's oddballs on his long-running (since 1991!) talk show. Business Insider reports that, according to multiple sources, "influential Ohio Democrats" are pushing Springer to consider a run for Ohio Governor in 2018. Ex-Gov. Ted Strickland is one of the few going on the record as having talked to Springer about the race. Springer tweeted on Tuesday, “Article about me running for Ohio Gov? If I throw my hat in the ring, I'll let folks know. Right now, I don't even have a hat!”
It's actually not as far-fetched as you might think, beyond the obvious facts that Springer starts out with a lot of name recognition and self-funding capacity. Springer was a somewhat-successful politician long ago; after narrowly losing a U.S. House race in 1970, he was elected to the Cincinnati city council in 1971. He resigned in 1974 after admitting to hiring a prostitute, but was re-elected to his seat in 1975 and served one year as Cincinnati's mayor (back then, the job rotated among council members). Springer then ran for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in 1982, where he finished a distant third. However, he at least gave us a notoriously (and painfully) honest TV commercial about his past indiscretions. His name has occasionally resurfaced since then, including for Senate runs in 2000 and 2004 that never panned out.
Despite his Tuesday tweet, it's still not clear whether Springer is even remotely likely to take the plunge, though. Springer has been making occasional appearances at Democratic Party functions around the state, at county-level dinners and meetings, but that's something he's been doing for a long time anyway. And Springer previously insisted in February that it wasn't happening "this time" in 2018. One insider's version is that Springer said he would consider running if he was "needed by the party," but for now there doesn't seem to be any shortage of credible Democrats seeking the nomination: ex-Rep. Betty Sutton, Dayton mayor Nan Whaley, ex-state Rep. Connie Pillich, and state Sen. Joe Schiavoni are all running.
● SC-Gov: Democratic state Rep. James Smith, a veteran of Afghanistan, has been flirting with a bid for a while, and he tells the National Journal that he will decide over the summer. Democrats haven't had much success in South Carolina in decades, but Team Blue hopes that an unfolding corruption scandal involving some very powerful GOP political figures will help give them an opening after 16 years of Republican rule.
● VA-Gov: With two weeks to go before the Democratic primary, Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam is up with another TV ad. Northam narrates the ad, describing how as a pediatrician, he's held a lot of babies, and "as you look into their eyes, you see innocence, affection, and joy. You don't see the hatred and bigotry we often see in adults, especially today." Northam tells the audience that he wants his legacy to be giving children the best legacy he can.
House
● CA-25: Attorney Bryan Caforio recently announced that he would seek a rematch with GOP Rep. Steve Knight, who defeated him 53-47 in 2016. Caforio is out with a May survey from PPP arguing that he's likely to be the Democratic nominee again in this northern Los Angeles County seat, and that he can win.
In California's June 2018 top two primary, PPP finds Knight leading the field with 46 percent of the vote, while Caforio grabs the second-place spot with 30 percent. Two other Democratic candidates, non-profit executive director Katie Hill and vulcanologist Jess Phoenix, take just 9 and 4 percent, respectively. That result is not a huge surprise at this point in the race: Caforio was just on the ballot, while Hill and Phoenix almost certainly start with little name recognition. It remains to be seen if either of Caforio's intra-party foes will have the resources and connections to get their name out, or if someone else will run.
Among the primary electorate, PPP gives Knight a 47-43 lead over Caforio, not too different than Knight's 2016 margin of victory. The release did not include any numbers testing Knight against Hill or Phoenix. This seat, which takes up the Antelope Valley, swung from 50-48 Romney to 50-44 Clinton. Update: The Caforio campaign has told us the survey tested Caforio against Knight among the primary electorate, not the general electorate. In past cycles, Republicans have shown up for the primary in disproportionate numbers. For instance, in the 2016 primary, Republican candidates took a combined 56 percent of the vote to the Democratic contenders 44 percent. In November, Knight won by a smaller 53-47 margin.
● CA-34: The decidedly sleepy all-Democratic runoff for California's dark blue 34th District in Los Angeles is in just a week, and final fundraising reports were filed a few days ago. Assemblyman Jimmy Gomez, who led 25-22 in the first round back in April and has pretty much top-to-bottom support from the Democratic Party, raised $327,000 between April 1 and May 17, spent $292,000 and had $222,000 left over for the stretch run.
Gomez's opponent, ex-Los Angeles City Planning Commissioner Robert Lee Ahn, did manage to outspend the frontrunner, thanks to a $195,000 personal loan. Ahn took in $353,000 from donors during the same timeframe and shelled out $499,000, leaving him with $103,000 in the bank. Ahn used a similar personal loan to get his name out (via some heavily criticized mailers) ahead of the primary. However, Ahn's unlikely to find success with that tactic again: Winning 22 percent in a 24-candidate field is a far cry from taking an outright majority in a one-on-one race with an established local politician.
● GA-06: Two pro-Democratic groups, the House Majority PAC and Patriot Majority USA, are jointly running a new TV ad in the upcoming special election in Georgia's 6th District, but the theme is very familiar. Like the DCCC and Jon Ossoff before them, HMP and Patriot Majority attack Republican Karen Handel as a career politician who has wasted taxpayer money in office on herself. HMP says the buy is for $500,000.
● KS-02: Republican Rep. Lynn Jenkins announced that she wouldn't seek re-election all the way back in January, but until recently, state Sen. Steve Fitzgerald had the GOP primary to himself. On Sunday, however, Army veteran Vernon Fields, a former U.S. Bureau of Prisons employee who provided drug treatment to inmates, jumped in. Fields is a city councilor in the small city of Basehor (population 5,100), and it's unclear if he has the connections to mount a serious campaign. Other Republicans are also likely to run for this seat, which includes Topeka and several nearby rural areas. Trump won 56-37 here, but Democrat Paul Davis carried it 51-45 in his 2014 gubernatorial race, and Davis formed an exploratory committee for a likely bid in April.
● KY-06: At 55-39 Trump, Kentucky's Lexington-based 6th district is one of the reddest districts that's a plausible target in 2018 (thanks to a "historically Democratic" tradition and the presence of a large university), but it seems like a lot of local Democrats are bullish on the possibilities here. Wealthy Lexington Mayor Jim Gray, who was the 2016 Senate nominee against GOP incumbent Rand Paul, previously declined to rule out a bid, and he now says he's considering and will likely make a decision in the next two or three months. While Gray lost his Senate bid 57-43, he carried the 6th 52-48.
However, more Democrats are also making noises about getting in. The latest person to be considering is Colmon Elridge, a former aide to ex-Gov. Steve Beshear. Elridge previously considered the race in 2016, and he's also weighing a statewide run in 2019 instead, possibly to replace the termed-out Alison Lundergan Grimes as secretary of state. Eldridge says he'll make a final decision by the end of summer, and insists his decision isn't dependent on Gray's.
State Democratic Party leaders have said in the past that Marine Corps Lt. Col. Amy McGrath, who retires at the beginning of June, is considering as well. The Daily Independent also reports that ex-state Rep. Leslie Combs is considering, though Combs has yet to say anything publically. State Sen. Reginald Thomas, who has previously expressed some interest a week ago, is now saying "he's running" unless Gray runs. Whichever Democrat emerges from the primary will face Republican Rep. Andy Barr, who knocked off Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler to pick up this seat in 2012.
● NM-01: On Tuesday, attorney Damian Lara, a former deputy Bernalillo County assessor, became the latest Democratic candidate to join the race for this blue Albuquerque seat. Lara is also the president of the New Mexico Hispanic Bar Association, and he may have the connections to run a serious race. Lara joins Albuquerque City Councilor Pat Davis; physicist Dennis Dinge; ex-state party chair Debra Haaland; and retired University of New Mexico law school professor and ex-dean Antoinette Sedillo Lopez in the primary for this 52-35 Clinton seat, and there's no clear frontrunner yet.
● PA-10: Trump carried the 10th District in rural northeastern Pennsylvania 66-30 last year, and even unpopular GOP Gov. Tom Corbett won the seat 58-42 as he was losing re-election 55-45 in 2014. However, the DCCC is trying to recruit one familiar Democrat to challenge four-term GOP Rep. Tom Marino, and he sounds interested. Ex-Rep. Chris Carney, who lost to Marino during the 2010 GOP wave, told The Times' Tribune's Borys Krawczeniuk that the DCCC is trying to convince him to run, and Carney says he is thinking about it.
Carney, a former Pentagon intelligence analyst who currently works for Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats in aviation intelligence, ran for a previous version of this district in 2006. The seat had backed George W. Bush 60-40 in 2004, and GOP Rep. Don Sherwood didn't even face a Democratic foe in 2002 and 2004. However, Sherwood admitted he had a five-year affair with a woman 35 years younger than himself, and he ended up settling a lawsuit after she claimed the congressman had chocked her. While Bush campaigned for Sherwood despite his many problems, Carney beat the incumbent 53-47 during that year's Democratic wave.
Two years later, Carney won re-election 56-44 even as John McCain carried the seat 54-45. McCain himself and other Republicans even unsuccessfully tried to convince Carney to switch parties the next year, but while he was only too happy to brag about it to his conservative constituents, Carney did not take the bait. But Marino, a former U.S. attorney, ended up beating Carney 55-45 in the 2010 GOP wave. The GOP legislature proceeded to redraw this seat for 2012 and made it even redder, taking McCain's margin of victory from 54-45 to 56-42.
Carney has been eyeing a comeback bid for a while, but he has never gone for it. In 2011, Carney told supporters that he was considering running either against Marino or neighboring GOP Rep. Lou Barletta depending on the outcome of redistricting. However, the new map also strengthened Barletta, and Carney sat the cycle out. In 2013, the DCCC tried to recruit Carney to take on Barletta, but he showed no interest. Two years later, Carney expressed interest in challenging GOP Sen. Pat Toomey, but he soon dropped off the radar.
If Carney does run this time, it's tough to overestimate how tough this campaign would be even in a Democratic wave year. Only about two-thirds of Carney's old seat is in the current 10th, and he's been out of politics for years. The GOP also made sure to leave Carney's home in the 10th, but they moved his base to Barletta's seat. This area is also very conservative, while Marino has none of Sherwood's considerable baggage to drag him down. Still, Carney does have a good profile and he would give Democrats a credible candidate in case things absolutely go to hell for the GOP (again), and if he distracts Keystone State Republicans a bit, Team Blue won't complain.
● UT-02: Republican Rep. Chris Stewart hasn't drawn much attention as an apostate within the GOP House caucus — in fact, the former author hasn't attracted much attention, period, in his two terms so far — but he's apparently non-extreme enough to draw a potential primary challenge from the right in 2018. Businesswoman Mary Burkett, who has served on the state GOP central committee and as vice-chair of the Washington County GOP, has formed an exploratory committee for a matchup against Stewart.
Burkett sounds some Freedom Caucus-y notes, faulting Stewart for being an ally of Paul Ryan, and more specifically for voting in favor of the AHCA, which she says didn't go far enough toward totally repealing Obamacare. Stewart, for his part, has accumulated a voting record that puts him near dead center within the House GOP caucus (319th most conservative in the 113th Congress), which, of course, still means he's very conservative.
● UT-03: Candidate filing closed Friday for the November 7 special election to succeed GOP Rep. Jason Chaffetz, who will resign from the House at the end of June. This seat gave Trump 47 percent of the vote, while conservative independent Evan McMullin edged out Hillary Clinton 24-23 for second place, and the GOP will likely hold it this fall. Both parties will hold their primaries on August 15, but thanks to Utah's unusual election laws, most of the 15 Republicans who filed to run won't make it to the ballot.
The GOP will hold a convention on June 17. If one candidate takes at least 60 percent of the delegates, that candidate advances to the primary; if no one clears 60, the two candidates with the most support will make it to the primary. Utah recently adopted a law that allows contenders to collect signatures to make it to the primary in case the convention doesn't go well. However, only a few candidates are going with this strategy: consultant Tanner Ainge, the son of former Brigham Young University basketball star and current Boston Celtics general manager Danny Ainge; Provo Mayor John Curtis; and two little-known Republicans.
A number of other Republicans are depending only on the convention delegates to send them to the primary: state Sen. Deidre Henderson, a former Chaffetz campaign manager; ex-state Rep. Chris Herrod, whose 2012 U.S. Senate bid died at the convention; state Sen. Margaret Dayton; state Rep. Brad Daw; and several Some Dude Republicans. One of those little-known candidates is Mike Leavitt, who shares a name with a former GOP governor. While McMullin considered running, he did not file, though the deadline for independents isn't until June 12.
Grab Bag
● Deaths: On Friday, ex-Kentucky GOP Sen. Jim Bunning, the only member of the Baseball Hall of Fame to ever serve in Congress so far, died at the age of 85. Bunning was a Major League Baseball pitcher from 1955 to 1971, and in 1964 as a member of the Philadelphia Phillies, he pitched the first perfect game in the National League in the 20th century. In 1976, Bunning won a post in the Kentucky state Senate, and he became the chamber's majority leader. Bunning was Team Red's 1983 gubernatorial nominee, but he lost 55-44 to Democratic Lt. Gov. Martha Layne Collins, who became Kentucky's first female governor. In 1986, Bunning won a U.S. House seat around the Cincinnati suburbs. Bunning ran for the U.S. Senate in 1998 and narrowly beat fellow Rep. Scotty Baesler 50-49 in the general election.
Bunning was an ardent conservative in the Senate, but his mouth frequently got him into trouble. In his 2004 re-election campaign against Democrat Daniel Mongiardo, Bunning declared that Mongiardo looked like one of Saddam Hussein's sons; admitted that he had read his opening and closing statements off a teleprompter in a debate; declared that he didn't "watch the national news, and I don't read the paper" because "I watch Fox News to get my information;" called Mongiardo, who was single, "a limp wrist;" and declared that he and his wife had been roughed up by Mongiardo supporters, whom he dubbed "little green doctors pounding on my back." Bunning's gaffes (most of which are incredibly mild by Trump-era standards) turned what was a sleepy race into a nail-biter, and he only won re-election 51-49 as George W. Bush was carrying Kentucky 60-40.
While Republican Senate Leader Mitch McConnell called his fellow Kentucky senator "my best friend in the Senate" during the 2004 campaign, McConnell made it clear he wanted his great pal to retire in 2010 rather than once again jeopardize the GOP's hold over the seat. Bunning, who made headlines again in early 2009 when he predicted that Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg would die soon, resisted and declared time after time that he would run again.
However, even Bunning dubbed his meager fundraising "lousy," and he publicly blamed McConnell for trying to force him out. At one point, Bunning reportedly even told a room full of lobbyists that, if he didn't get help from national Republicans, he'd resign, which would have allowed Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear to put a Democrat in his seat; Bunning's aides notably refused to deny the story. Secretary of State Trey Grayson began raising money, and while he said he wouldn't challenge Bunning in a primary, Grayson's far-stronger fundraising made it clear that GOP donors wanted Bunning to defer to him.
In December of 2009, citing his bad financial situation, Bunning finally announced that he wouldn't seek re-election. But in a small act of revenge against McConnell, Bunning endorsed libertarian Rand Paul over Grayson a month before Paul won the GOP primary.
The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, and Stephen Wolf, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, and James Lambert.
