The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, and David Beard.
Leading Off
● Pres-by-LD: Daily Kos Elections' project to calculate the 2016 presidential results for every state legislative seat in the nation hits Michigan, a state that unexpectedly—and distressingly—flipped from blue to red last year. As a bonus, we've also calculated the 2014 election results for U.S. Senate, governor, attorney general, and secretary of state for each state House, state Senate, and congressional district. You can find our master list of states here, which we'll be updating as we add new data sets; you can also find all of our calculations from 2016 and past cycles here.
Campaign Action
The GOP had complete control of Michigan's state government when it was time to redraw its state legislative lines for the decade, and it shows. In 2012, even as Mitt Romney was losing the state by a wide 54-45 margin to Barack Obama, he still carried 21 of 38 state Senate seats and 57 of 110 state House seats. Unsurprisingly, Donald Trump's narrow 47.6-47.4 victory over Hillary Clinton last year was enough to allow Trump to win even more legislative districts. Trump traded one Romney Senate seat for three Obama districts, and just three Romney state House seats for 13 Obama districts.
The GOP holds a 27-11 Senate supermajority and a formidable 63-47 House edge. (Daily Kos Elections assigns all vacant seats to the party that last won them; right now, two of those Democratic state House seats are vacant.) The Senate is only up in midterm election cycles, while the House is up every two years.
We'll start with a look at the Senate. In 1983, two members of the Democratic majority were recalled after they backed a tax increase, and they were replaced with Republicans early the next year. The move gave the GOP control of the Senate, and they've held it ever since. During the 2006 Democratic wave, Team Blue came relatively close to winning the chamber back, but the GOP still held a 21-17 majority despite a 54-46 statewide popular vote edge for Democratic candidates; the 2010 and 2014 GOP waves gave Team Red the supermajority they enjoy today.
All 11 of the Senate Democrats represent seats that backed both Clinton and Obama, while four of the 27 Republicans hold seats that went for Clinton. The Republican in the bluest seat is Dave Hildenbrand, whose Grand Rapids-area SD-29 went from 53-46 Obama to 54-39 Clinton. Republican state Sen. Marty Knollenberg is the only Republican in the chamber to represent a Romney/Clinton seat. His SD-13, located in suburban Detroit's Oakland County, went from 50-49 Romney to 50-44 Clinton. An additional three Republicans hold Obama/Trump seats.
One way to illustrate how much the GOP-drawn state Senate map protects the Republican majority is to sort each seat in each chamber by Clinton's margin of victory over Trump and see how the seat in the middle—known as the median seat—voted. Because both chambers have an even number of seats, we average the two middle seats to come up with the median point in the chamber. Trump carried the median seat 52-42, about 10 points to the right of his very thin statewide win.
We'll turn now to the state House, which has been a bit friendlier to Team Blue but is still a tough lift. Democrats managed to flip the chamber in 2006 and held it in 2008, but the GOP took it back in the 2010 wave and they've kept it ever since, despite Democratic candidates frequently winning more votes than Republicans do statewide. The median seat went for Trump 52-43, again well to the right of his narrow statewide win.
Unlike in the state Senate, ticket-splitting actually worked in the Democrats' favor overall. In 2016, Democrats won eight Trump seats while the GOP took four Clinton seats. However, seven of those eight Democratic seats had backed Obama four years before, while three of the GOP-held Clinton seats went for Romney. Six additional Republicans hold Obama/Trump seats. The only Democrat in a Romney-Trump seat is Scott Dianda, whose HD-110, which is located on the Upper Peninsula, went from 52-47 Romney to 57-38 Trump. Dianda won re-election 61-39 last year, but he will be termed-out in 2018. The lone Republican in an Obama/Clinton seat is Brandt Iden, whose Kalamazoo County HD-61 went from 50-49 Obama to 49-45 Clinton. Last year, Iden won re-election 49-45, and he's eligible to serve one more term.
Democrats have to defend one of their eight Trump seats in a special election this November, and both parties will hold primaries in August. The vacancy came about for very tragic reasons: Earlier this year, Democratic state Rep. John Kivela, who won re-election 62-34, died in an apparent suicide. His HD-109, which is located in the Upper Peninsula, swung from 53-45 Obama to 49-45 Trump.
As strong as the GOP's gerrymanders are, they may not be completely impenetrable. During the 2014 GOP wave, Democrat Gary Peters defeated Terri Lynn Land, one of the feeblest Republican candidates anywhere (see this genuine Land ad for a taste), by a wide 55-41 margin. Peters carried 25 of 38 districts in the Senate and 74 of 110 in the House. And while both Obama and Clinton won the same five out of fourteen congressional districts, Peters narrowly carried four more districts, all won by both Romney and Trump: MI-04 (represented by Rep. John Moolenaar), MI-07 (Tim Walberg), MI-08 (Mike Bishop), and MI-11 (Dave Trott).
Peters' decisive win didn't mean much for Democrats downticket in 2014, though. Three Republican incumbents, Gov. Rick Snyder, Attorney General Bill Schuette, and Secretary of State Ruth Johnson were all re-elected statewide, and the GOP expanded their majorities in both legislative chambers and held all their congressional seats. Still, if 2018 continues to shape up as a strong year for the entire Democratic ticket in Michigan, even the GOP's seemingly rock-solid gerrymanders might not be enough to protect their majorities. And if Democrats can retake the governor's office next year, they can veto any GOP attempt to draw another gerrymander for the next decade.
Gubernatorial
● VA-Gov: Republican firm Harper Polling gives us their first poll of the November general election in Virginia's gubernatorial contest, which finds Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam and former Republican National Committee chair Ed Gillespie tied at 46 points apiece. That's almost identical to the numbers that Gillespie's campaign released on Thursday from Public Opinion Strategies, which had him ahead 46-45. Polls from non-GOP pollsters have painted a much rosier picture for Democrats, but with so few polls here overall, it's hard to say who is closer to the truth at the moment.
House
● FL-07: In a recent interview, 1st District Republican Rep. Matt Gaetz said he thought that GOP Seminole County Tax Collector Joel Greenberg would have the best shot at defeating first-term Democratic Rep. Stephanie Murphy in the suburban Orlando-area 7th District, and Greenberg later refused to rule it out, making this the first time that he appears to have spoken publicly about possibly running next year. Greenberg previously owned an advertising company and was only elected to local office last November, and it's unclear if he has what it takes to win a more fiercely contested federal race.
The 7th favored Hillary Clinton 51-44, but Obama won it by just a handful of votes, meaning the GOP is likely to put up a fight against Murphy in 2018 regardless. State Sen. David Simmons, who represents most of the congressional seat in the legislature, has previously said that he was "98 percent headed towards a run."
● IL-13: Democratic state Rep. Carol Ammons had formed an exploratory committee in early June for a potential 2018 campaign against Republican Rep. Rodney Davis and previously said she would announce her plans by June 15. However, Ammons stated on Thursday that she was delaying her decision after she had reportedly been expected to jump into the race. Containing Champaign and Bloomington, the 13th favored Trump just 50-44, but Davis has been tough to dislodge following his close initial election in 2012.
● NY-19: The Hudson Valley-based 19th District flipped from 52-46 Obama to 51-44 Trump while Republican Rep. John Faso won his first term by a surprisingly comfortable margin in 2016, but yet another Democrat has joined what has increasingly become a crowded primary to take on the incumbent next year. Woodstock-area attorney David Clegg, who is also an ordained deacon, recently jumped into the race, although it's not evident whether the first-time candidate has the connections needed to mount a strong campaign. Clegg joins a Democratic field that includes: attorney Antonio Delgado; former Army intelligence officer Pat Ryan; business consultant Sue Sullivan; Gareth Rhodes, a former aide to Gov. Andrew Cuomo; and others.
Legislative
● Specials: Via Johnny Longtorso, we have the results of a Thursday race in Tennessee:
Tennessee HD-95: Republicans held on to this one. Kevin Vaughan defeated Democrat Julie Byrd Ashworth by a 62-35 margin. Independents Robert Schutt and Jim Tomasik pulled in the remaining 3 percent of the vote.
This seat went 76-23 for Mitt Romney in 2012, and Daily Kos Elections' preliminary calculations have it voting for Trump by 68-29 in 2016. While Team Blue didn't come close to winning, that's still a solid overperformance in this very red suburban Memphis seat. You can find our continuously-updated chart tracking the Trump-era special elections.
Mayoral
● Seattle, WA Mayor: We have our first financial reports since the Seattle mayoral race was dramatically remodeled with the withdrawal of incumbent Ed Murray and a number of new high-profile candidates jumping in at the last minute. As expected, ex-U.S. Attorney Jenny Durkan, who's the most business-connected candidate, raised the most money at $190,000.
More surprising is two activists who haven't held office before are in second and third place. Cary Moon is in second at $80,000 (though $40,000 of that is self-funding), and Nikkita Oliver is at $50,000 (as the preferred candidate of Socialist Alternative party City Councilor Kshama Sawant's dedicated cadre of lefties, she has the most donors of any candidate, at 822). Ex-state Rep. Jessyn Farrell, who recently gave up her seat because she couldn't fundraise while the legislature was in special session, is at $45,000. Oddly, the best-known name in the field, ex-Mayor Mike McGinn, lags behind at $27,000, suggestive of his youthful base having gravitated to Oliver.
That leaves one other candidate, state Sen. Bob Hasegawa, who hasn't raised anything other than a $6,000 loan. But Hasegawa's in better shape than that makes it look for two reasons: He hasn't given up his legislative seat, so he can't fundraise yet, and he probably has a lot of labor money about to come his way once the session is over. Hasegawa also has the endorsement or co-endorsement of every legislative district-level Democratic organization (in other words, the activist rank-and-file) that has endorsed so far.
Grab Bag
● Podcasts: On Thursday, Daily Kos Political Editor and Senior Communications Advisor Carolyn Fiddler appeared on Slate's Trumpcast with fellow Virginian Jamelle Bouie to discuss the June 13 gubernatorial primary in the Commonwealth; the trouble Corey Stewart's surprisingly strong performance spells for Republicans; Ralph Northam's success and Democrats' incredibly high turnout; and the state of play for all 100 House of Delegates races this fall. Have a listen here; Carolyn's segment starts at 6:55 and ends right before 22:00 (but feel free to start at the beginning for some dramatic reading of Trump tweets and whatnot).
