There seems to be a pundit point that says something like this. VA, CO, NV, NM are moving blue while PA, WI, and MI have become red states.
How true is this conventional wisdom? Yes Trump squeaked through in those three states. However, his margin was smaller than the Green vote. All three of those states also had depressed African-American vote (Some like WI due to laws).
But, I think Trump was also unique in another way besides your usual Club for Growth Republican candidate. Trump ran on trade issues. This is not something the GOP can sustain long term because it is a total lie as far as their policy goes.
Also, in an under-reported part of the story, Trump ran on protecting Social Security and Medicare. These are old states demographically. Of course it was a lie, but Democrats were not able to play off the voucherize Medicare idea that they could with Romney or the other 2016 GOP contenders.
IN 2018, I suspect Democrats in these three states for Senate will cruise to victory. Bob Casey in PA can’t even get a real GOP challenger. Debbie S. and Tammy Baldwin should also win. Wolf in favored to win re-election as Gov. in PA, and MI gov. is open and looks like a good pickup opportunity.
Yes, these states are horribly gerrymandered which kills us. But that can change in 2020.
Look, this is not a ponies, unicorns, and rainbows post where I say there are no problems in these states. However, I have a hard time believing that it wasn’t unique circumstance of candidates and other factors that turned states where Obama over-performed his national average in 2012 into solid red states in 2016.