First off, this is not going to be a pro-Pelosi diary. The Democratic Party is bigger than any one leader, so the future does not hinge on Nancy Pelosi remaining minority leader. But the electoral success of the Democratic Party in 2018 is neither improved or diminished by her role in leadership. The only point I’ll make is that she did a damn good job of making the last CR passed by the House maintain Democratic priorities, when Ryan couldn’t find the votes in his own caucus.
But Pelosi didn’t lose 4 special elections, we did. We lost those elections a long time ago, and all of the expectation building is only evidence of our wishful thinking. Rather than trying to reflect on electoral rejection of our worldview, we assumed everyone would just realize that they’ve made a terrible error and swing back our way.
We assumed 4 districts full of people, who have on the receiving end of our disdain, were going to suddenly embrace us with open arms. This was stupid. There was a Trump backlash, but that backlash couldn’t be inflated with cash. If anything the more the DNC stuck itself in the individual races, the more we drove turnout on the other side. In these four districts we weren’t running established candidates, so it wasn’t like there was a comfort level for disaffected Republicans. We just assumed generic Democrat would be enough, and that was a stupid assumption.
Trump will not win us a majority in either the House or Senate. He may set us up with a 7 point bump, but turning that into a win will be up to the candidates and the party messaging.
Now on that messaging, I think Pelosi has been pretty accurate with the tamp down on impeachment talk. I’m not saying there isn’t a possibility of a complete meltdown at the White House, but think about the tactic we are embracing. We want to attack Trump’s character, honesty and temperament. I seem to remember that story being played out before in both the Republican Primary and the General Election, and it didn’t work either time. The people listening to him are not listening to us, and that is our fault.
I say this as someone, who detests the judeo-christain white bred picket fence conservative vision of America, but we have let our social issues overtake our pitch to the electorate. I’ve been an atheist since I was a teenager, and never once did I feel like I was at home in American society. Then about seven or eight years ago, I started noticing an aggressive brand of atheism targeted dead center at the backbone of American culture.
It of course wasn’t limited to religion. It was every sacred cow Joe America was raised to hold dear. The whole white christian patriarchy was being vivisected on live television, and as beautiful as this all was, I knew there had to be a counter action. The sixties left us with Nixon, and the Obama era left us with Trump.
But they didn’t choose Trump, because he validated there cultural beliefs in a changing world, though it certainly helped. That wasn’t the anxiety that pushed them over the edge. What was true is that there has been no lofty vision for the American standard of living after the 2008 crash. Here is where we need to start rebuilding our messaging, because Trump beat us to the punch.
First off, raising the minimum wage is great, but it doesn’t mean a lot to most households. The American dream is not to be working for McDonald’s or Walmart, so if that is all we have, then we aren’t actually talking to voters.
Trump talks coal mining jobs, because in the areas these mines ran, a person could buy a house and send their kids to college by working those mines. That is what is missing from America. The ability to raise a family to a higher standard of living in exchange for working a job.
Our answer as Democrats has been college, college, college, but that is just as much a fiction as Trump’s magical coal mines. Only 30% of Americans hold a bachelors degree, and the labor force isn’t even able to accommodate all of them. Not everyone is suited to be an engineer or scientist, so we really should cut the crap. A 50 year old guy laid off from a factory isn’t going to be a computer programmer by 52.
I wish I knew the answer to tell these voters, but I’m not smart enough. The truth is that median household income has stalled in this country, and us dullards (myself included) are being left behind. Sure, it lands hardest on minorities and others with systemic disadvantages, but it hits red and blue communities all the same. Trump is full of shit, but at least he is telling these voters something.
We as a party need to have a message for the voters in all districts in which we hope to compete. When I say message, I don’t mean a lecture. I don’t mean a rebuke of how backwards they are. I’m as guilty of it as anyone reading this, but the fault is not in our stars, and it is not in Pelosi.