In 2020 and beyond, traditional political strongholds for both parties may change significantly. Changing demographics in states like Texas and Georgia might move them into the purple category and possibly even the blue state category in future elections. Meanwhile, once Democratic bastions, like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin could shift into the swing state category. On top of this traditional battleground states like Ohio and Florida could begin become “safe seats” for Republicans or Democrats.
The first red states to go blue could be Texas, Georgia, and Montana.
Growing Hispanic & Latino populations are driving force to move the state in the Democratic category for the first time since 1976 when Jimmy Carter ran for President and beat Gerald Ford. Currently, Hispanics & Latinos make up 40% of the population. On top of this, African-Americans make up 11% of Texas. Now, clearly, all minorities don’t vote Democrat. However, according to the Pew Research Center, Democrats hold an 80%-11% advantage with blacks, 65%-23% of advantage with Asians, and 56–26% advantage with Hispanics across the United States. This means the Democrats for the foreseeable future will hold onto the minority vote by wide margins in all states.
Unlike California, however, Texas’ population hasn’t seen a large dip in its white population. In fact, from 2000 to 2015 the white population declined by 1%. But 70% of the children under the age of 1 in Texas is Hispanic or Latino. That means by 2036, the first year these children can vote, the greatest majority of them will be Democrats. Though when you look deeper you find that many Hispanics came from Northern Mexico, which is a stronghold for the PAN, Mexico’s conservative party, to Texas while more left leaning Hispanics & Latinos come from Southern & Central Mexico and Central America to California.
Most large cities have been more or less Democratic strongholds, and this holds true for almost any city in any state. The reason they’ve remained Democratic strongholds is that urban populations tend to be left leaning, regardless of race, with cities with larger minority populations being more Democratic. That’s why most large cities have a Democratic mayor or a liberal majority on the city council. Though there are few exceptions where heavily Conservative states have staunchly Republican cities and an occasional Republican might win a mayoral race in an otherwise liberal city, like Rudy Giuliani in New York City.
Georgia probably won’t a Democratic stronghold anytime soon but it very well could be a purple state in the future, maybe even 2020. The reason for this is, like Texas, it has a large minority population as Blacks and Hispanics & Latinos make up around 35% of Georgia’s population. And 59% of children under the age of 1 are minorities. If this trend holds and minorities keep voting blue in a state where Hillary Clinton only lost by 300,000 votes then Democrats could begin to fight to win the state in future Presidential elections.
Georgia’s cities are Democratic strongholds, like I mentioned above, especially Atlanta. Atlanta is currently keeping Democrats electorally competitive, at least somewhat, and is one of the nation’s fastest growing cities. If it continues to grow along with a rising minority population then Democrats could carry the state for the first time since 1992 when Bill Clinton was running for his first term.
You might think I’m crazy for putting Montana but once you begin to look closely it looks very plausible. But, Montana, only has 3 electoral votes so isn’t going to be an electoral battleground like Ohio.
Montana is a strange state, in terms of politics. In urban areas, the state is either blue or has no political affiliation. The incumbent Governor of Montana, Steve Bullock, a Democrat, won reelection while Ryan Zinke, who was Congressman for Montana at-large congressional district, with 56% of the vote. Months later Zinke left to become Trump’s Secretary of the Interior so a special election was held. Greg Gianforte, who had lost to Steve Bullock in the November gubernatorial race, beat Democrat Rob Quist by 5.6 points. Democratic Senator, Jon Tester, is up for reelection in 2018. He beat his Republican opponent, who was the state’s congressional representative for 12 years, by 4 points in 2012. Meanwhile two years later the state elected a Republican to the Senate, Steve Daines. So Montana is a very politically diverse state.
The reason for this may go back to the days when the Midwest was a populist hot bed. In the late 1800’s and early 1900’s the Peoples/Populist party was a party of angry farmers who were left-leaning and opposed capitalist policies. They eventually merged into the Democratic Party, which has long been seen as the party that helps farmers.
The western portion of Montana has been growing due to universities and college students who are overwhelmingly liberal. Meanwhile, the eastern part of Montana, a steadfast Republican area, has been declining in population, thus decreasing Republican support in the state. And Montana’s urban populations are growing which means more Democratic voters.
Demographics aren’t everything though. Democrats need to have a message that appeals to voters in these traditionally Republican states. But that doesn’t mean pandering just to win elections. That’s just bad politics, for both the voters and parties.
Democrats need to begin pulling straight from the pages of the campaigns that have become successful here. Once you start looking at the policies of Democrats who have won elections you see there are issues that can be used to win elections in heavily Conservative states, all across the nation. Things like infrastructure, agriculture, climate change, and even the protection of public lands are areas where Republican and Democratic voters can agree and work together on. If Democrats campaign on issues such as these then they could start seeing wins.
However crafting a policy platform that will appeal to voters in Texas, Georgia, and other traditionally red states is going to be difficult. This is because there’s simply less to agree on. Pro-choice, gun control, etc. are all no go’s in these states. But they could appeal to more voters if they were effectively promoted. For instance, saying just gun control carries a negative connotation. But if you were to say a ban on assault rifles, lax gun regulation in rural areas and improved background checks, that’s a message people from both sides of the aisle, I think, can get behind. More over, Democrats need to get their new policy platform, “A Better Deal”, which was revealed yesterday in Virginia by Chuck Schumer, out there and articulate it to the American people.
If they begin to do this then the Democratic party can begin flipping Republican states again and get gains all across the country,
Part 2 will be published on Monday.