In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle, stand like a rock.
~Thomas Jefferson
So, I did a post yesterday on Texas Democratic and Republican issues and messaging that brought a lot of good discussion to the table. I have been focused throughout the spring and early summer on Virginia House of Delegates races, since they have an election THIS FALL, so I figured I would take a similar look at what is going on there in the message war.
Before I begin though
I do want to make this clear up front. I do not believe the electoral troubles we are facing across the country will be solved by finding some magic sequence of words and all of the sudden all of these elections will start going our way. Nor do I think that having a good list of issues is the key to winning these races. The key to me is running and organizing.
That said, some level of consistency of thought and direction is a sign of an energized party with some sort of sense of direction. Some level of cohesion across campaigns shows a certain alignment with the constituencies by and large. Plus, coherence gives a party a base point to gauge the effectiveness of certain messages and approaches.
Again, I do not think finding the right marketing message is the key to digging out of the electoral hole we are in. I launched the Full Slate Project because I steadfastly believe we need to run and help candidates organize in districts across the board. Seeing a coherent issue set and some form of organizing theme though is more a sign of some sense of direction within the party.
Virginia House of Delegates Overview
- Number of Delegates = 100
- Republican-held seats = 66
- Democratic-held seats = 34
- Seats not contested by Democrats in the last cycle = 44
- Contested races Republicans needed to win to secure majority last cycle = 7
- Constituents per House District = 80,010
- Constituents represented by Democrats = 2,720,340
- Constituents Democrats DID NOT SEEK to represent = 3,520,440
More Overview but Exciting News about this fall’s races
- Number of Democratic Candidates = 88
- Contested races Republicans will need to win to secure majority = 39
- Increase in number of Democratic Candidates from last cycle = 32
- Total constituents Democrats are seeking to represent this fall = 7,040,880
- Constituents Democrats are not seeking to represent this fall = 960,120
- Number of Republican Candidates = 72
- Contested races Democrats will need to win to secure a majority = 23
Edit: i do want to make it clear, Virginia is not unique to have so few candidates running in the 2015 cycle. In state legislative races across the country in the last cycle Democrats did not compete in 1,479 state legislative races. Those house and senate districts represent 117,000,000 constituents. This is one of our biggest issues as a party.
I CAn’t stress this enough, this is exciting to see in Virginia: we ought to get behind them
First of, when you consider that in the last cycle 44 Republicans filed to run for office and won simply by filing that paperwork compared t this cycle where only 12 Republican candidates are afforded that luxury, well, that is just a big freaking deal. I applaud all of the Democrats that have picked up the banner this fall.
I tend to think the fact that we are seeking to represent 7,040,880 Virginians in the election this fall is the important takeaway. We only asked 4,480,560 Virginians for their vote last cycle. We are telling 57% more Virginians we care enough about them to ask for their vote. Again, a huge freaking deal.
As I note in my introduction this type of engagement and organizing is the true sign of a healthy party. Building the party up from this base of support will pay huge dividends long term. Heck, I think we will even be able to flip the House of Delegates this fall if we all get behind these folks with resources. The Koch money is pouring in, I can guarantee that.
To learn about the races in Virginia and connect with the Democratic candidates here is an Index covering all of the races for Republican-held seats.
Party messages as reflected by issue focus and cohesion
So in my Texas piece there were a few critiques that I figured were self-evident, but apparently not, so I will address them here:
- My approach of looking at campaign websites and counting up each issue that appears in the first 3 issues mentioned is not a comprehensive scientific approach to reviewing messaging and theme. It is just one element to consider, this is what this relatively narrow approach reveals, nothing more, there is still something to get out of the effort.
- As I note above, I do not believe this is why we are losing, but we do need to consider messaging and cohesion as an element to build on or toward. Or not, but looking at it is the way to figure out the value in the end.
SO what do we see coming from the Republican house of delegates candidates in Virginia
I do not want to spend a lot of time comparing Texas to Virginia, but I will not the Texas Republicans almost to a representative used some construct of True Conservative or similar variant. There are about 4 Virginia candidates that use that construct, but otherwise, they do not have that organizing frame in their language. That said their issue list still adheres to the issues we even relate to “Conservative” values even though they did not rely on the “Conservative (fill in the blank) model.
REPUBLICAN ISSUES CITED AS TOP 3 IN IMPORTANCE BY INDIVIDUAL CAMPAIGNS
Issue |
Number of Mentions |
Rate Mentioned |
Notes on Framing |
Business/Jobs/Economy |
38 |
53% |
Business environment focused |
Education |
33 |
46% |
Reform, some school choice stuff, but not as much as you’d think |
Limited Government |
20 |
28% |
Reducing regulations |
Fiscal Constraint/Budget |
20 |
28% |
taxes and spending |
Transportation/Infrastructure |
17 |
24% |
Traffic concerns dominate, the eastern, coastal and DC districts exclusively |
Nothing Listed |
15 |
21% |
11 incumbents, 4 uncontested |
2nd Amendment |
8 |
11% |
|
Pro Life |
7 |
10% |
|
Public Safety |
6 |
8% |
First responders |
Family/Constitutional Values |
6 |
8% |
used as shorthand for gods, guns and gays |
Health Care |
6 |
8% |
stopping medicaid expansion mostly, some let the board report come back stuff |
Coal/Energy |
4 |
6% |
2 just coal, the other two deregulation |
Veterans |
4 |
6% |
|
Property Rights |
2 |
3% |
|
Environment/Preservation |
2 |
3% |
Chesapeake Bay cleanup and preservation |
Civil Liberties |
1 |
1% |
internet privacy, ending warrantless searches |
Good Governance/Ethics |
1 |
1% |
|
Human Trafficking |
1 |
1% |
|
Domestic Violence |
1 |
1% |
The only candidate or rep in either Virginia or Texas to bring this up and it is a 2nd amendment guy to boot |
Citizen Concerns |
1 |
1% |
|
Immigration |
1 |
1% |
just the one mention, really |
This is an interesting list. I was a bit surprised by a few of things. When you look at the top 5 on this list you will find 3 of them in the Democrats top 5 too. Traffic and tolls seem to plague eastern Virginia for sure. I do think Republicans have an advantage on the issues and messaging front by looking at their top 5, but more on that after we take a look at what the Democrats are listing as their focus.
democratic ISSUES CITED AS TOP 3 IN IMPORTANCE BY INDIVIDUAL CAMPAIGNS
Issue |
Number of Mentions |
Rate Mentioned |
Frame |
Edcuation |
48 |
55% |
Usual variants , Early, k-12, post secondary, trade school |
Jobs and Economy |
38 |
43% |
minimum wage, income equality, small business focus |
Health Care |
27 |
31% |
Defending Obamacare and medicaid expansion, some universal care |
Environment/Climate Change |
21 |
24% |
energy production transitioning to green, tackling rising sea level |
Transportation/Infrastructure |
19 |
22% |
roads, traffic, some broadband hits |
Nothing Listed |
16 |
18% |
11 uncontested incumbents |
Good Government/Ethics/fiscal responsibility |
9 |
10% |
fair share |
Campaign Finance/Election Reform |
8 |
9% |
democracy and civic engagement |
Criminal Justice Reform |
7 |
8% |
race and drug use |
Civil/Human Rights |
7 |
8% |
|
Public Safety |
5 |
6% |
|
Women's Rights/Issues |
4 |
5% |
just mentioned in general terms mostly. |
Constituent Concerns |
4 |
5% |
focus on what constituent want |
Community |
3 |
3% |
|
Military/Veterans |
3 |
3% |
|
Immigration Reform |
1 |
1% |
|
Mental Health |
1 |
1% |
also listed health Care as a separate issue |
The American Dream |
1 |
1% |
|
Consumer Protection |
1 |
1% |
|
Workers Rights |
1 |
1% |
Workers Comp and other protections |
Families |
1 |
1% |
|
Farming |
1 |
1% |
|
Disability Services |
1 |
1% |
|
Running for the sake of running |
1 |
1% |
the warm body message, Republican unopposed for too long |
In Virginia, Democrats are clearly promoting themselves as the education party. It ain’t really even close when it comes to issue 2. That said, it is nice to see this level of cohesion.
So why do you think Republicans still have an edge here
For me, it boils down to this. When you look at the Republican top 5 not also mentioned by Democrats, Fiscal Constraint and Limited Government, those issues flow from the Republicans parties organizing principles of low taxes and restricted role for government in business affairs. There is a consistency there.
For Democrats, those other 2 issues are important issues, environment, and healthcare. The difference is they are two more important issues, not defining elements of some greater organizing principle. It is not bad these issues make the top 5, that is not what I am saying at all. Just that the two “other issues” in the Republican top 5 clearly fow from their ideology and that adds some level of strength and relatability to people in terms of their governing philosophy in theory. Notice my use of “in theory” I am well aware they rarely actually govern that way.
SO do we Democrats need to find an “organizing principle” or “framework”
My contention would be yes, there is advantage to having such a framework in place. It would help us set the terms of the debate more than we do now. On issue after issue Republicans control the language because they have a thoroughly ingrained set of ideals. We can repeat them, limited government, tax cuts, free markets equal free people, god and guns and so on. When you see most of their issue list you tend to see how it relates. That connectivity makes the Republican message more relatable to voters as a result.
Meanwhile, people within our own party have a hard time pinning down and deciding what we are for. I can tell you one thing, doing this exercise brought one point home to me that I was not connecting with before. To me, I am a Democrat to pursue a just system for all. Economic Justice, Racial Justice, and Social Justice are the pillars of my belief system in terms of the direction this country needs to head. Insofar as what has been perceived as the focus of the party in modern times, I sort of thought the Racial Justice component was a point of emphasis for our candidates.
It is not. only 14 candidates even mention issues specific to advancing civil rights or equality of treatment in our criminal justice system. Considering this is such a huge part of the “identity” of the party, I was surprised to see so little focus on these issues when doing this review.
I have not fully considered the implications of that, I would love for this to be a part of the dialogue in the comments section. My initial take is this is a problem that actually hurts our relatability to voters of all races. They know we stand for racial justice, yet we barely reference in our top of mind list of issues. That might be creating a disconnecting with voters within and outside our base of support.
To be fair, it does get more mentions than the 14, just not that fall in individual candidates top 3 issues.
In the end, I think what we find here is encouraging, it is clear there is some energy and work being put into Virginia. There is a cohesion not present in Texas probably because we have more people on the ground working across these districts. Either that or they are all hiring the same web consultant.
In the end, we will definitely be able to learn something about our message in Virginia after this fall’s election.
ON a personal preference note
Education is important in the modern world, I get that. Most of us voting age adults are not engaged in an explicitly educational institution or activity, nor do most of us have kids in an educational setting. It gives me pause to make this an overwhelming driving issue since so many voters do not feel they have a stake in it. The evidence of people's ambivalence if they have no personal stake in something is how often school levees fail. So while I like to see the message cohesion, I do bring some skepticism to the table with this being so dominant in Virginia. It also topped the list in Texas for Dems there. If this has traditionally been our focus in these states, and yet we find ourselves holding only 35% of the seats in these bodies, maybe we need to rethink the level of emphasis we are placing there.
That said, let me close with a quote to muddy the waters:
The advancement and diffusion of knowledge is the only guardian of true liberty.
~James Madison