Donald Trump’s threat to start the fire with North Korea apparently came as a complete surprise to the rest of those working at No-Chaos-Here Central.
"The White House, including the national-security team, was unaware President Trump was preparing to speak publicly about North Korea."
As Kim Jong Un replies to Trump’s threats with a threat of his own aimed at Guam, Secretary of State Rex Tillerson is actually in Guam, trying to get everyone to relax.
During a planned stop in Guam, however, Tillerson said he had seen nothing in the past 24 hours that made him think military action was more likely, and that he had no reason to reroute his trip.
Tillerson seems to be firmly in the “this is just tough talk from a pair of loudmouths” camp. Just over a week ago, Trump’s shoot-from-somewhere-just-below-the-hip style had Tillerson pondering making an early exit and taking an unplanned vacation. But the SOS is back on the job to tell Americans to chill. The boss is just an idiot.
Tillerson also explained Trump's more colorful language by saying he was trying to get Kim's attention.
While there is an international search for the grownups in the room, Tillerson is making it clear that neither Trump nor Kim fall in that category. They can communicate only through threats and raising their colorful crests.
"I think what the president was doing was sending a strong message to North Korea in language that Kim Jung Un would understand because he doesn't seem to understand diplomatic language," Tillerson told reporters on the plane.
Even without a chess-playing WOPR, it’s possible to game out the possible scenarios for North Korea.
Scenario One
North Korea fires its complete arsenal of missiles and warheads at targets in the United States. The United States and others reply with a massive counter-strike using both conventional and tactical nuclear weapons. The result is millions dead, most of those in North Korea, a complete collapse of North Korea as a nation, and Kim Jong Un being dead either in the opening salvo or at the end of a Saddam-esque noose.
Scenario Two
Kim Jong Un continues making threats and bluffs, taking only enough action to convince his own people that the situation remains you-and-me-against-the-world. The result is Kim gets to wear a new uniform every day and play with the latest XBox while millions work to satisfy his every whim.
The difference between these two scenarios lies largely in having someone not listening into the rhetoric Kim has crafted for his home audience and forcing scenario two to become scenario one.
There is a path forward. The US actions in passing additional sanctions against North Korea were a good move. A smart diplomat might give the current moment a few weeks to cool, then approach North Korea over a potential lessening of those sanctions in return for a monitored roll-back of the nuclear program. In other words, a deal essentially similar to that offered in the effective Iranian Treaty worked out under President Obama.
Now, if only Trump hadn’t fired the smart diplomats.