Great news out of Virginia today courtesy of Qunnipiac University’s latest poll:
In the Virginia governor's race, Democratic Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam tops the magic 50 percent mark among likely voters, leading Republican Ed Gillespie 51 - 41 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Libertarian Party candidate Cliff Hyra gets 3 percent.
Northam leads Gillespie 95 - 3 percent among Democrats, with 1 percent for Hyra, and 50 - 37 percent among independent voters, with 7 percent for Hyra. Gillespie takes Republicans 94 - 4 percent, with no measurable support for Hyra, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University Poll finds.
This survey of likely voters can not be compared to earlier surveys of registered voters.
There are wide gender and racial gaps as men back the Republican 49 - 39 percent while women back the Democrat 61 - 34 percent. White voters back Gillespie 49 - 44 percent while non-white voters back Northam 74 - 16 percent.
Northam gets a 47 - 31 percent favorability rating among Virginia likely voters. Gillespie gets 40 percent favorable and 39 percent unfavorable.
For Hyra, 84 percent of likely voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion of him.
"Virginians were just getting used to the idea that the Old Dominion was no longer that tried-and-true, rock-solid Republican bastion that had been the case since the civil rights era of the 1960s and was now a swing state. But as these poll numbers demonstrate, politics in Virginia may be moving further leftward," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll.
"If Lt. Gov. Ralph Northam can keep his lead over Republican Ed Gillespie in the race for governor, it won't be long before the state is considered part of the reliably Democratic Blue Wall in the East."
"After all, the state has voted Democratic for president the last three times and reliably Democratic in most statewide elections over the past decade," Brown added.
"Moreover, Republican President Donald Trump is deeply unpopular while Democratic Gov. Terry McAuliffe is popular. Of course, a come from behind victory by Gillespie would throw a monkey wrench in the Blue Wall talk. At this point, the 3 percent showing by Libertarian Cliff Hyra is not enough to make much of a difference in the race unless Gillespie stages a rally."
For 27 percent of Virginia likely voters, the economy is the most important issue in deciding how they will vote for governor. Another 21 percent cite health care, as 12 percent list education, 11 percent say taxes and 10 percent say immigration.
The poll surveyed 850 Virginia likely voters from September 14th to the 18th with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percentage points, including the design effect. Live interviewers call landlines and cell phones. Trump’s approval rating is 58/39. Governor Terry McAuliffe’s (D. VA) approval rating is 56/37. U.S. Senator Tim Kaine’s (D. VA) approval rating is 55/40. While this is great news, we cannot take anything for granted. So let’s have a big blue wave this year and turn into a Democratic Blue Wall. Click below to donate and get involved with Northam and the whole Democratic ticket:
Ralph Northam for Governor
Tim Kaine for U.S. Senate
Justin Fairfax for Lt. Governor
Mark Herring for Attorney General
Virginia Democratic Party