I have a theory. It explains a lot of Trump’s conciliatory behavior toward Democrats of late, and explains why it would be in his interest to stick it to McConnell and Ryan.
Trump is planning to run as an Independent in 2020.
There are multiple ways this works to Trump’s advantage:
1) He doesn’t have to kow-tow or give up anything to McConnell and Ryan. In fact, the more he charts his own course, the better this scenario works for him.
2) All he has to do is avoid being forcibly removed from office. Our liberal fantasies aside, its highly unlikely, even with a smoking gun video tape of Trump engaging in lurid acts with Russian hookers, that there are enough votes in the House or Senate to make that happen. There is a small window between Republican primaries in spring 2018 and August where it could happen — but at this point, I don’t think it will (we would have heard and seen more). Even if Dems retake the House, its unlikely they can muster the votes to remove him. If he is successful in this…
3) He avoids a nasty primary fight. I’d be shocked if Kasich didn’t run against Trump in the primary. Trump would have a real fight on his hands. And I think he’d rather not do 20 debates and deal with squashing another set of Republicans. He’d rather go his own way.
4) It’s the ultimate revenge. I am sure he blames the GOP on his low approval ratings. So he can punish them, if it looks like he is unlikely to win, by handing the WH to Democrats. He’d probably take some 1968 George Wallace states, but its likely he splits the vote in many other battlegrounds (FL, AZ, even TX) that Democrats win.
I imagine he gets Perot’s 20% of the vote, but its likely the GOP comes in THIRD in some states, with implications for ballot access, etc. in 2024. Convince me otherwise, but I think the best case for 2020, if Trump has not yet been removed from office and is eligible to run again, is his running as an Independent.