There are 16 special elections coming up over the next month, with several competitive races in Florida, New Hampshire, and Connecticut (and several districts we have a chance at flipping in Missouri, Kentucky, and Minnesota).
Here is a comprehensive list of all the state legislative special elections through February 2018:
January 23rd:
Pennsylvania House District 35. Democratic-held seat. Located near Pittsburgh in Allegheny County. Clinton beat Trump 58-39 and the last Democrat won 63-38. Safe D.
February 6th:
Missouri House District 39. Republican-held seat in a rural suburb of Kansas City covering Ray, Carroll, and Chariton Counties. Trump won it 71-24 and the Republican was unopposed in 2016 and 2014, although the Republican only won the district 55-44 in 2012. Safe R.
Missouri House District 97. *Race to Watch*. Republican-held seat southwest of St. Louis covering parts of St. Louis and Jefferson Counties near Arnold, Missouri. Trump won the district 61-33, although in 2012, the Republican only won it 52-48. Mike Reves (D) is running against David Linton (R) Likely R.
Missouri House District 129. Republican-held seat. Rural suburb of Springfield Missouri in Dallas and Laclede Counties. Trump won it 80-16. Nothing to see here. Safe R.
Missouri House District 144. Republican-held seat. Rural southeast district covering several state parks between Farmington and Poplar Bluff. Trump won it 78-19. The Republican won it with no less than 66% between 2012 and 2016. Safe R.
February 12th:
Minnesota Senate District 54. *Race to Watch* Democratic-held seat that swung for Trump located southeast of St. Paul covering parts of Washington and Dakota Counties. It’s largest city is Cottage Grove. Trump eked out a win 46-45, while the Democrat won it 53-47. In 2012, Obama won it 53-45 and the Democrat won it 64-36. Karla Bigham (DFL) will run against either James Brunsgaard III (R) or Denny McNemara (R) after their primary. Leans D.
Minnesota State House 23B. *Race to Watch* Republican-held seat in rural southern Minnesota near Mankato covering parts of Blue Earth, La Sueur, Waseca, and Watonwan Counties. Trump won it 59-33, but Obama got 48% in 2012. No Democrat ran in 2016, 2014, or 2012. Melissa Wagner (DFL) will run against either Jeremy Murison (R) or Scott Sanders (R) after their primary. Leans R.
February 13th:
Florida State House 72. *Race to Watch*. Republican-held seat located in Sarasota County south of Tampa. Trump won the district 50-46, while Obama got 48% in 2012. The Republican won 58-42 in 2016 and 54-46 in 2012. Margaret Good (D) will run against James Buchanan (R). Leans R.
Georgia House District 175. Republican-held seat located in south Georgia west of Valdosta in Brooks, Lowndes, and Thomas Counties. Trump won the district 61-37. The Republican ran unopposed in 2016 and 2014, and beat the Democrat 71-30 in 2012. Rant: Even if it was more competitive, I wouldn’t put much faith in Democrats in my state as they lost a special election 2 weeks ago in a district Clinton won (state house 111) thanks to absolutely no GOTV and a 6% turn out (compare that to the 33% turnout in the Wisconsin special election this week). Safe R.
Oklahoma State Senate 27. Republican-held seat located in the panhandle of Oklahoma. Trump won it 84-11. A Democrat is running but…Safe R.
February 17th:
Louisiana House District 86. Republican-held seat located east of Baton Rouge and north of Lake Pontchartrain in Tangipahoa Parish. Trump won it 73-23. Safe R.
February 20th:
Kentucky House District 49. *Race to Watch* Republican-held seat that flipped in 2016, located south of Louisville in Bullitt County. Trump won it 73-23, but the Republican beat the Democratic incumbent by less than 1%. In 2014, the Democrat won it 53-47. Linda Belcher (D) is running against Rebecca Johnson (R). Likely R.
Mississippi House District 60. Republican-held seat located in Rankin County, a (mostly white) eastern suburb of Jackson. The Republican ran unopposed in 2015 and 2011. No results for President as it doesn’t appear Mississippi releases precinct-level results, but Trump won Rankin County 75-22, and given the racial polarization there, I’m assuming this is a Safe R.
February 23rd:
Connecticut House District 120. *Race to Watch* Republican-held seat located in Stratford, east of Bridgeport. This is a district Clinton won 49-47 and Obama won 53-46, while the incumbent generally won by a 2-1 margin. Phillip Young (D) is running against Bill Cabral (R). Without the incumbent, I’d say it’s a Toss up.
Kentucky House District 89. Republican-held seat located near London in south Kentucky. Trump won the district 80-17. Safe R.
New Hampshire House District Belknap 3. *Race to Watch* This district is located in Central New Hampshire in Belknap County. New Hampshire’s districts vary in number of seats based on population, so this district has 3 representives (1 Democrat and 2 Republicans until the death of on the Republican representatives). Trump won the district 54-41, but Obama won it 50-49 in 2012. Phillip Spagnuolo (D) is running against Les Cartier (R). Given how “swingy” New Hampshire is, I’d say this is a Toss Up.