Elvia Diaz for the Arizona Republic nailed it in her op-ed today:
There is a reason Republican Martha McSally accused her Democratic rival of “treason” against the United States.
In one second of the 60-minute debate, McSally grabbed national headlines in her desperate quest to win the U.S. Senate seat from Arizona.
McSally’s reason? She’s counting on us – the Arizona voters – to be stupid enough to believe her unsubstantiated accusation against one of the most moderate politicians in the state’s recent history.
She’s also hoping Arizona voters are stupid enough to believe her lies about her record on taking away protections for pre-existing conditions:
The issue flared Monday during a debate in Arizona, where two House members are vying for a Senate seat: Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema and GOP Rep. Martha McSally.
As Sinema brought up McSally’s votes to overturn Obamacare and its protections, McSally angrily accused her of perpetuating an “outright lie.” Noting ads on the issue all over the country, McSally argued, “The Democrats have nothing to run on, and so they’re choosing to play with fear.”
In May, McSally rallied fellow Republicans to support the repeal-and-replace bill, urging colleagues in a closed-door meeting ahead of the vote to get it done, with an expletive for emphasis.
Right now, Sinema has the momentum in grassroots fundraising:
Sinema has raised about $15.7 million while McSally has brought in about $12.5 million, according to the latest numbers from the Federal Election Commission.
The latest numbers were released Tuesday, a day after the two candidates in the U.S. Senate race went head-to-head for the first and only scheduled debate.
While Sinema has raised more money, McSally has more cash on hand that she still hasn’t spent. The Republican congresswoman has more than $3.3 million on hand, while her Democratic opponent has $2.1 million.
“McSally does have more on hand for the start [of early voting], but I doubt that by Election Day she has more than a million,” Noah Rudnick, a data analyst with OH Predictive Insights, said. “That would be a lot to waste in a toss-up race.”
Now McSally can use that money to persuade undecided voters but Vox provides five reasons why Sinema can and will flip this seat. Number 3 really caught my attention:
Arizonans love to talk about their independent streak and that’s something that’s also reflected in voters’ political affiliations. As of this past August, the state had roughly 1.3 million registered Republicans, 1.1 million registered Democrats and 1.2 million registered Independents, according to the Arizona Secretary of State.
“We’re about a third, a third, a third — Republican, independent, and Democrat, in that order,” says Rochwalik, “It’s the independent voter that makes the decision in Arizona.”
Swing voters could very well shift the scales in favor of Democrats this cycle, since many are displeased with Trump’s policies and rhetoric. In a June NBC News poll, independent voters in Arizona said their vote in November would act as a check on Trump and not an effort to support his agenda — by a 21-point margin.
“Most of the independents see themselves as sort-of Democrats and sort-of Republicans,” says University of Arizona political science professor Thomas Volgy. “This doesn’t appear to be case this year — it looks like they’re heavily moving away from the Republican Party.”
If enough independents vote for Sinema, that bloc of voters combined with the existing Democratic base could be sufficient to overcome the numeric advantage that Republicans have in the state — particularly if the Republican base has a depressed voter turnout. An October poll from ABC/OH Predictive Insights found that 48 percent of independent voters were backing Sinema, compared to 36 percent backing McSally.
Hanging onto more independents will be vital for Sinema’s chances in November.
To quote McSally, “Let’s get this fucking thing done!”. Click below to donate to Sinema and her following Arizona Democrats:
Kyrsten Sinema for Senate
David Garcia for Governor
January Contreras for Attorney General
Ann Kirkpatrick for Congress
Greg Stanton for Congress
Hiral Tiperneni for Congress