The Daily Kos Elections Morning Digest is compiled by David Nir, Jeff Singer, Stephen Wolf, and Carolyn Fiddler, with additional contributions from David Jarman, Steve Singiser, Daniel Donner, James Lambert, David Beard, and Arjun Jaikumar.
Leading Off
● KY-Gov: Mason-Dixon is the first pollster to release numbers for next year's contest for governor in Kentucky, and they have some unwelcome news for GOP incumbent Matt Bevin. The governor posts an ugly 38-53 approval rating, a big drop from the already meh 45-41 score Mason-Dixon found a year ago. Morning Consult likewise gave Bevin an awful 30-55 rating during the third quarter of 2018.
Campaign Action
Mason-Dixon also tests Bevin against three prospective Democratic opponents. Attorney General Andy Beshear posts the strongest numbers, with a 48-40 lead over the incumbent, while state House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins edges Bevin 42-41. However, Secretary of State Alison Lundergan Grimes trails the governor by a narrow 47-46. Beshear and Adkins have already announced that they're competing in the May primary, while Grimes hasn't announced her plans yet; the filing deadline is Jan. 29.
Kentucky is a very conservative state, but Bevin has excelled at making enemies. Most notably, teachers in over two dozen schools went on strike in the spring after the GOP-run legislature passed a bill changing their pension system. The walkout ended weeks later, after the legislature overrode Bevin's vetoes to pass a separate budget bill that included new money for education.
Bevin reacted poorly to the whole episode, particularly the strike. "I guarantee you somewhere in Kentucky today a child was sexually assaulted that was left at home because there was nobody there to watch them," he ranted. "I guarantee you somewhere today a child was physically harmed or ingested poison because they were home alone because a single parent didn't have any money to take care of them."
Bevin was widely condemned even by fellow Republicans, and he soon issued a classic no-pology thanking "those of you who understood what I was saying," while saying he was sorry only to the "tremendous number of people did not fully appreciate what I was communicating or what I was trying to say."
While Bevin's comments and attempted cleanup were bad enough, the underlying issue remains an ongoing problem for him. Last week, the Kentucky Supreme Court struck down the pension law that led to the strike, ruling that it was rushed through so quickly that it violated the state constitution's requirement that legislators to have a "fair opportunity" to consider bills before they need to vote on them.
The development was good news both for the teachers' unions and for Beshear, who sued to overturn the law. In response, Bevin called a surprise special legislative session to pass a new pension bill. However, Republican leaders in the legislature have so far refused to even promise to produce new legislation.
Despite all of Bevin's continuing woes, he's still far from finished with almost 11 months to go before Election Day in this very red state. For starters, while Bevin has been in the hot seat for three years, his Democratic foes haven't been exposed to many GOP attacks yet, something that will certainly change once the primary is over.
Wary Democrats will also remember that back in 2015, Bevin pulled off a 53-44 win against Democrat Jack Conway even though Bevin had trailed in almost every poll; even a Bevin internal taken in mid-October had Conway ahead 44-41. There's of course no guarantee that the governor will defy the polls again in 2019, but it's a good reason for Democrats to be cautious about this contest. It's also worth noting that this Mason-Dixon poll gives Donald Trump just a 46-37 favorable rating in Kentucky, a state he carried 63-33, so it's possible their sample wasn't conservative enough.
Senate
● AZ-Sen: On Tuesday, Gov. Doug Ducey announced that he would appoint Rep. Martha McSally, who narrowly lost this year's Senate race to Democrat Kyrsten Sinema, to Arizona's other Senate seat. McSally, who will take over after interim Sen. Jon Kyl resigns on Dec. 31, will need to face the voters again in a November 2020 special election for the final two years of the late John McCain's term. Whoever wins will be up again in 2022 for a full six-year term.
National Republicans, including Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, had reportedly been pushing Ducey to tap McSally for some time. However, McSally does have her detractors, some of whom are reportedly in Ducey's inner circle.
Among other things, the Washington Post's Sean Sullivan wrote back in November that McSally skeptics griped that she didn't do a better job utilizing opposition research about Sinema's past as an anti-war organizer and a member of the Green Party. McSally, a former combat pilot, very much did run ugly attacks on Sinema, calling the contest a battle between a "between a patriot and a protester," but apparently, that still didn't go far enough for some Republicans.
McSally's detractors also complained that she distanced herself too much from McCain, who was utterly despised by Donald Trump but has his fans among swing voters. These same complainers also argued that McSally's decision to run as a Trump loyalist caused her problems in November. Democrats are also going to be sure to remember that in 2015, McSally didn't just vote for the House version of Trumpcare, she reportedly rallied her colleagues behind the bill by declaring that it was time to get this "fucking thing" done.
Still, while the governor himself may have lost some of his enthusiasm for picking McSally, he still went ahead and did so on Tuesday. For all her faults, McSally is a strong fundraiser who has experience running statewide. She also may be able to avoid an expensive primary this time now that she'll be running as an incumbent, albeit an unelected one. Democrats are certain to target this seat, which Team Blue would need to flip under any plausible path to retaking the Senate majority in 2020, so McSally will be in for another competitive race just two short years from now—or perhaps sooner.
It's far too early to know if McSally will face an intra-party fight, but if she does, it doesn't sound like she'll have a rematch with former state Sen. and current state party chair candidate Kelli Ward. Ward, who unsuccessfully challenged McCain in 2016 before losing to McSally 55-28 this year, put out a statement congratulating her former rival and saying she looked forward to working with her.
● KS-Sen: Former U.S. Attorney Barry Grissom said back in March that he was considering a bid for the Democratic nomination, and he reiterated his interest this week. GOP Sen. Pat Roberts has not yet announced if he'll seek a fifth term, though after his chaotic 2014 re-election effort, his party would probably be much better off if he retires.
Grissom acknowledged how tough it would be to win in this very red state, noting, "It took Herbert Hoover and the Great Depression" for Democrats to win their last Kansas Senate race all the way back in 1932. Still, Grissom argues that Democrat Laura Kelly's 48-43 win over Republican Kris Kobach in this year's gubernatorial race will give Team Blue some momentum heading into 2020.
● MA-Sen: While Rep. Seth Moulton sounds unexcited about challenging Sen. Ed Markey in the Democratic primary, he still refuses to rule it out. Mouton recently told the Boston Globe that he had "no plans to run for Senate." When asked if that meant he was closing the door on bid, he declared that "you never say never," and added, "If I were to run for the Senate in 2020, I should be making plans and I am not." Because Seth Moulton would never charge forward with a half-baked plan.
● TN-Sen: GOP Rep. David Kustoff's name quickly surfaced as a potential candidate to succeed retiring Sen. Lamar Alexander, and his office tells The Tennessean that he "will explore the potential of running."
Meanwhile, Rep. Chuck Fleischmann sounds a bit less interested, but he isn't closing any doors. On Monday, he put out a statement saying he was "solely focused on the responsibilities of my current role for the time being," which is of course not a no. An unnamed GOP source later told the Times Free Press that Fleischmann "wants to keep an open mind" and isn't ruling out a bid.
And over on the other side of the globe, wealthy businessman and current Ambassador to Japan Bill Hagerty doesn't seem to be ruling out a run either. When Hagerty was asked for comment about this race, he put out a statement the praised Alexander but didn't mention his own interest—or lack thereof—in this contest. Hagerty previously served as outgoing Gov. Bill Haslam's economic and community development commissioner, so he may be waiting to see if his old boss runs before proceeding further.
It remains to be seen if Democrats will field a strong candidate, especially following former Gov. Phil Bredesen's 55-44 loss to Republican Marsha Blackburn this year. Bredesen himself doesn't seem to have said anything publicly about another bid, but unnamed people close to him told The Tennessean that he's not considering it.
However, Chattanooga Mayor Andy Berke isn't making it any secret that he's looking at running. Berke put out a statement after Alexander retired saying he that there were "many issues important to me that affect not just Chattanoogans, but Tennesseans as a whole." One other Democrat, Knoxville Mayor Madeline Rogeros, isn't quite saying no. Rogeros' spokesperson said she was "fully concentrating on her final year in office and has no plans to run for U.S. Senate."
A few weeks ago, before Alexander made his decision known, state Sen. Sara Kyle also told the Nashville Postshe was considering running, while state Sen. Jeff Yarbro and attorney and Army veteran James Mackler didn't answer when asked about their own 2020 plans.
House
● ME-02: After getting thoroughly smacked down by a federal judge last week, outgoing Republican Rep. Bruce Poliquin has announced that he'll appeal his case challenging Maine's new instant runoff law. There's little reason, though, to think that Poliquin will have any greater success at the appellate level in overturning the results of his election, which he lost to Democrat Jared Golden last month.
Mayoral
● Tampa, FL Mayor: Mayor Bob Buckhorn is termed-out, and Tampa, Florida's third-largest city, will host a crowded contest to replace him next year. All the candidates will face off on March 5 on a single ballot, and there would be an April 23 runoff if no one takes a majority of the vote in this formally nonpartisan race. The candidate filing deadline is Jan. 18.
Tampa is a very blue city, but it's been open to electing moderate Democrats like Buckhorn. The early frontrunner looks like Jane Castor, who was the city's first gay police chief and would hold that same distinction if she won the mayor's office. Castor (who is not related to Tampa Rep. Kathy Castor) was a registered Republican from the age of 18 until shortly after she finished her stint leading the police department last year. Calling herself a "moderate," she announced at the time that she was joining the Democratic Party because she was unhappy that the GOP was turning away from diversity.
However, while Castor was generally popular during her tenure, she may be in for a hard time over the police force's penchant for handing out "biking while black" tickets. In 2015, when Castor was still chief, the Tampa Bay Times reported that eight in ten bicyclists who'd received tickets in the city for infractions like riding without a light or having another person on the handlebars were black, even though the city is only about 25 percent African-American. The paper also noted that Tampa had handed out more such tickets than Miami, Jacksonville, St. Petersburg, and Orlando combined.
At the time, Castor defended the policy, arguing that it was meant to make high-crime areas safer. However, she and Buckhorn requested a review from the U.S. Justice Department, which concluded that it unfairly targeted black cyclists. In April, ahead of her anticipated mayoral campaign launch, Castor said that, while she'd had good intentions, she now understood that the "negative consequences were completely unacceptable." She added, "Given that hindsight, we wouldn't have used that tactic."
Castor and her allied PAC have so far raised $420,000, which is more than the rest of the field … with one big exception. Retired banker David Straz has largely been self-funding his campaign, and he's already spent a hefty $1.15 million―more than five times as much as the rest of the field combined. Straz, who began airing TV ads all the way back in August, already had some name local name recognition: The downtown performing arts center is named for him, as is a building at the University of Tampa.
However, while national politics may not be a big factor in this race, Straz's support for Donald Trump in 2016, as well as his past donations to GOP Sen. Marco Rubio, could cause him problems. Straz announced in April that he was switching his party registration from no-party to Democratic, and said that he regrets his vote for Trump. Despite his not-so-ancient political history, Straz managed to earn endorsements from five unions last week.
There are several other candidates competing worth taking stock of, starting with former Hillsborough County Commissioner Ed Turanchik, who's raised $310,000 between his campaign and allied committees. Turanchik is the only candidate who opposed a November referendum in the county to raise sales taxes to fund transportation improvements. The measure passed with 57 percent of the vote, and Turanchik said at a recent debate that, now that the voters have spoken, he wants to make sure the money goes to road improvements and mass transit.
Turanchik has been out of office since he left the county commission in 1998, and he finished in fourth place (out of five candidates) the last time Tampa's mayoralty was open, back in 2011. However, Turanchik was attacked quite a bit in early mayoral forums this year, which could be a sign that his rivals still see him as a threat.
City Councilors Harry Cohen and Mike Suarez are also both running. Cohen and his allied committees have raised $280,000 to date, while Suarez has brought in $122,000. Cohen has the support of former Mayor Sandra Freedman, who left office in the mid-1990s.
Also in the race is branding consultant Topher Morrison, who has raised about $60,000. Morrison has gotten much of his media coverage because of his previous career as a professional hypnotist, though he's impressed some observers at debates. Finally, there's community activist LaVaughn King, who is the only black candidate who has been at the debates, though he hasn't reported raising anything yet.