On Tuesday, intelligence officials appeared before the Senate to deliver the annual assessment of worldwide threats. A number of topics were discussed by the various officials, but on one thing they had a united message—Russia not only interfered in the 2016 election, it hasn’t stopped, and intends to work even harder to disrupt elections in 2018.
U.S. intelligence analysts believe that Russia will conduct "bolder and more disruptive cyber operations during the next year," targeting Ukraine, NATO and the United States, the assessment says.
Expectations for this year are the same as the outcome of 2016, but more so. More pushing fake stories on social media. More stealing information from private servers and emails. Attempting to penetrate voting rolls and elections systems.
Senator Angus King (I-ME) expressed his frustration with trying to get out the message about this interference, when Donald Trump insists on treating, not just the investigation into his own campaign’s collusion with Russia, but the whole idea of Russian involvement in the election as a “witch hunt.” While the gathered heads of intelligence sympathized, they also reported that they had not been directed to do much beyond collecting information on the ongoing Russian attempts.
The most frightening aspect would seem to be that the intelligence community is expected more of the same—but not apparently considering that Russia, in its ongoing efforts, may have gained experience necessary to interfere in new and even more powerful ways.
“Persistent and disruptive cyber operations will continue against the United States and our European allies using elections as opportunities to undermine democracy,” Coats said at an annual Senate Intelligence Committee hearing on worldwide threats.
While intelligence on the US side has apparently been told to do nothing more than watch and wait, Russia is under no such restrictions. It’s never stopped acting, testing, probing. And considering the success it enjoyed in 2016, the idea that 2018 would look like the previous election is a hugely naive expectation.
The overall statement from the intelligence community paints the broad scope of Russia’s efforts.
"Moscow seeks to create wedges that reduce trust and confidence in democratic processes, degrade democratization efforts, weaken U.S. partnerships with European allies, undermine Western sanctions, encourage anti-U.S. political views, and counter efforts to bring Ukraine and other former Soviet states into European institutions."
During their turn with the intelligence chiefs, Republican senators including Tom Cotton and Chuck Grassley used their time to ask about threats “south of the border,” continuing the idea that immigrants, and in particular Mexico, represented a looming threat.
It was an action that reinforced something that got little attention in the morning’s hearing: Just what type of material did Russia use to manipulate US voters in social media? But the topic was discussed in Senate testimony last March.
Social media provides Russia’s new Active Measures access to U.S. audiences without
setting foot in the country … Russia targets specific audiences inside electorates amenable to their messages and resulting influence – in particular alt-right audiences incensed over immigration, refugees and economic hardship.
The primary narrative that Russia created in 2016 was one that drove a wedge into the nation along lines of race and nation of origin. This continues to be enabled not just because Trump is denying the importance of Russia’s actions, but because even in an instance where intelligence is reporting on Russian actions, Republicans are working to drive up the idea of an immigrant threat.
The biggest weapon of Russia’s interference in US elections is US racism, and Republicans continue to arm that weapon for them.
Republican efforts to interfere in the 2018 election are already underway. Just as during 2016 there were dozens of tests of fake news stories pushed out to determine both themes and technologies most effective in capturing US voters, Russia is right now testing the systems and content it will use to warp the results of the elections in the fall. And if there’s one united message that the intelligence community brought on Tuesday, it’s that there is absolutely no directive from the White House to do one thing about stopping Russia.