The new, potentially illegal short-term health insurance plans that the Trump administration says can now be offered are bad. Really bad. We've talked about how they'll undermine protections for people with pre-existing conditions. The aim of the new regulations is largely to destroy the Affordable Care Act, since Congress couldn't do it through repeal, so here we go.
A new study from the Urban Institute details the damage these short-term interlopers, combined with the repeal of the individual mandate that was included in the new tax law, could cause. Those effects include an 18.2 percent premium hike for Obamacare customers next year. In brief:
Both of those actions have the effect of leaving fewer healthy people in ObamaCare plans, which drives up premiums for the remaining group of sicker enrollees. [….]
The study finds 4.2 million people will enroll in the new short-term plans, with 1.7 million of those being otherwise uninsured.
But this new coverage is primarily attractive to healthy people because it does not need to follow ObamaCare rules, can deny coverage to those with pre-existing conditions and can leave out coverage of certain services.
The study also finds that 6.4 million more people will be uninsured next year due to the repeal of the mandate to have health insurance or pay a fine, in addition to other smaller changes like cutting federal investments in outreach.
The total number of uninsured next year, UI estimates, will be 32.6 million, which is 12.5 percent of the non-elderly population. That compares with 10.2 percent under Obamacare. Federal spending will increase by 9.3 percent next year alone, they estimate. Because Obamacare wasn't repealed, the tax subsidies that a large percentage of customers get still exist, and those subsidies go up along with premium hikes.
More uninsured people, and higher costs for the federal government: it makes no sense. But it's Republicans and Obamacare, so that's a given.