For the third straight quarter, I’m bringing you a comprehensive analysis of House fundraising data released recently by the FEC. Thanks to the good people at Daily Kos Elections, I was able to use this chart to make writing this article a lot easier, so kudos there. Last time I wrote one of these articles, I handed out awards to candidates based on their fundraising performance, but this time, I’m just going to outline my general observations from the data, delving into specifics in the process. So here we go:
Democrats are still cooking the Republicans in fundraising
Some individual Republicans have improved their conditions from last quarter, but looking at the national landscape, Democrats are annihilating Republicans in the fundraising department. There are 58 Republican-held seats where the leading Democrat outraised the leading Republican in Q1 (not taking into account self funding), a truly astonishing number and just short of 2.5x the seats Democrats need to flip to reclaim the majority in the House of Representatives. If you take into account self fundraising, the number is 63. Furthermore, there are 29 GOP-held seats where the leading Democrat already has more cash-on-hand (COH) than the leading Republican, with 15 of those being ones with an incumbent running for re-election. There’s just no way to look at this fundraising report without concluding that it was another horrific showing from the Republicans. Political environments are dictated by a lot more than just fundraising, but the GOP is not doing themselves any favors here.
The blue wave could be crashing in Michigan and New Jersey
If you’ve been following the battle for the House, you probably know that California and Pennsylvania are two key states where Democrats have a chance to clean up in due to varying factors (suburban revolt, populous states, new PA map). But not talked about as much have been other states like New Jersey and Michigan, which could be just as important to the Democratic path, if this fundraising report is indication. Let’s start with my home state of Michigan. Republicans control 9 of the 14 House seats here and in over half of those seats (5), the leading Democrat outraised the leading Republican, a mind boggling number. Those were MI-01, where Matt Morgan outraised Jack Bergman; MI-06, George Franklin over Fred Upton; MI-07, Gretchen Driskell over Tim Walberg; MI-08, Elissa Slotkin over Mike Bishop; and MI-11, where Suneel Gupta outraised Lena Epstein for Dave Trott’s open seat. Of those 5, the 8th and the 11th are still the top two priorities but the other three races are on my list of competitive seats and are creeping closer into more serious competition with every passing day that Democratic candidates continue to run circles around Republican incumbents in fundraising. The Wolverine State is quickly becoming one to keep your eye as the fall election cycle heats up.
Meanwhile in Jersey, the leading Democrat outraised the leading Republican in 4 of the 5 GOP-held seats, meaning there’s a serious question as to whether Chris Smith (NJ-04) will be the only remaining Republican in the House from the Garden State come January 3, 2019. In New Jersey’s 2nd Congressional District, our prediction of Lean Democratic was largely confirmed by the Q1 reports, with Democrat Jeff Van Drew blowing away the GOP field for this open seat. In New Jersey’s 3rd, Andy Kim raised more than twice what Republican incumbent Tom MacArthur raised and enters the second quarter narrowly trailing in cash-on-hand (1.088 M to $815 K). In NJ-07, incumbent Leonard Lance (R) was outraised by Tom Malinowski (D) and Malinowski has narrowed the gap in COH between himself and Lance entering the spring. Finally, in NJ-11, Mikie Sherrill (D) continues to raise an insane amount of money, raking in $969,000 in Q1 alone (!!!!), while the nearest Republican (Jay Webber) took in just $233,000. She enters the spring with $1.66 M (!!!!), compared to his $221,000, making herself a frontrunner for this open seat. All in all, Democrats could easily net 5-7 seats from these two states alone, which would be a quarter of what they need to flip the chamber, alone, if Republicans aren’t careful.
Dark Horse Races?
This fundraising report made me think of a couple dark horse races that no one is talking about but could become very interesting given these numbers. The first is South Dakota’s At-Large Congressional District, which is just the whole state. It’s open since Rep. Kristi Noem (R) is running for Governor and there are a handful of Republicans running. On the Democratic side, Tim Bjorkman actually raised the most money of anyone in the race if you account for self-funding. South Dakota is an R+14 state, so it’s a big time longshot, but Bjorkman is raising enough money to make things interesting and the state as a whole is no stranger to sending Democrats to Congress, including Tim Johnson (Senator from 1997-2015) and Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin (Rep. from 2004-2011). Again, in no way is this a top pickup race, but it’s caught my attention. Throw in Chinese tariffs on soybeans that will hammer South Dakota, and things could get interesting.
The other dark horse race that is on my mind is Alaska’s At-Large Congressional District, which is again, just the whole state. Don Young (R) has held this seat since the beginning of time (actually just since 1973, but still), but he never wins convincingly and has a penchant for saying dumb things. It looked like the Democrats were going to pass on contesting him seriously, and while that’s still true, Alyse Galvin, an independent running as a Democrat, has mounted her own campaign and outraised Young in Q1. Young doesn’t have a ton of cash in the war chest despite having 70,000 years to build it up and Galvin is an intriguing candidate. Like with South Dakota, it’s a longshot, but something to watch.
*pokes them with a stick* They’re alive!
This section is dedicated to house candidates who have finally figured out what they’re doing fundraising-wise. Let’s start on the Democratic side, where Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is running to challenge Carlos Curbelo in FL-26, finally reeled in a good amount after being outraised by Curbelo in Q4. In Q1 of 2018, Mucarsel-Powell brought in $506,000, while Curbelo raised $436,000. Curbelo, a terrific fundraiser, still has over $2 M in the bank, but Mucarsel-Powell is now up to over $700,000 in a district where Democrats need to run a much stronger campaign than they did in 2016. On the Republican side, ultra-endangered Representative Mike Coffman (CO-06) remembered how to raise cash in Q1 of 2018. After being outraised by Democratic challenger Jason Crow in Q4 of 2017, Coffman brought in just under a $100,000 more than Crow in Q1. That said, Coffman will need to keep it going because Crow is within $300,000 of Coffman in terms of COH and then the basic fact that no amount of money may be enough to save Coffman in 2018’s environment.