Activists in Utah have gathered enough signatures to put an initiative on November's ballot to expand Medicaid under the Affordable Care Act. In Nebraska, the petition gathering started this month, with a July 5 deadline. And in Idaho, against all predictions by politics watchers, Reclaim Idaho is on the cusp of qualifying its initiative for the ballot.
It was unexpected because it is a very heavy lift, thanks to the ballot qualification requirements the Republican legislature imposed in the state after an embarrassing 2012 voter repeal of a couple of very unpopular education laws. The Idaho Statesman's community engagement editor, Bill Manny explains just how many obstacles were in the organizers' path.
The conventional wisdom says the requirements to get 6 percent of all registered voters—a total of 56,000 signatures—in at least 18 of the 35 state legislative districts is a near-impossible task, especially for a volunteer effort not paying signature gatherers. […]
In 2013, after voters petitioned and overturned three unpopular education bills known colloquially as the Luna Laws, the Republican-dominated Legislature added new geographic requirements for initiatives and referendums. That's on top of the requirement for 6 percent of the voters registered, not just those who voted, in the last statewide election.
I asked Gary Moncrief, a Boise State political science professor emeritus, to put this challenge in context. He noted that some states, such as California and Oregon, can have dozens of initiatives every year. Idaho has had a total 28 since the first one in the 1930s; 12 have passed. And not one has even gotten on the ballot since the 2013 change to add geography to the numbers test.
"These two factors combined mean Idaho’s requirements are considerably more difficult to satisfy than is the case in most initiative states," said Moncrief. “What this all means is that a group must be very well organized and either well-funded or very enthusiastic and/or angry to pull this off.”
Idaho is huge, and very rural. The geographical requirement for signatures sent volunteers across the state into some huge districts with small populations. Like district 32, where the biggest town is Driggs, population roughly 1,600. The district cover 5 rural counties and volunteers there got enough signatures to qualify it, well before the approaching May 1 deadline. Because of organizing like that, they've nearly reached the goal: they've qualified in 16 out of the necessary 18 districts following a major push this weekend. They have likely qualified in two more, and are just waiting for certification, and have two more districts where they require fewer than 300 signatures. They will keep pushing through this week, up to the May 1 deadline in order to have a a big cushion for that 56,000 voter total.
Once that's done, actually winning in November is looking likely. Qualifying was such a massive hurdle that required a fine-tuned volunteer effort, headed up by Luke Mayville and Emily Strizich and Garrett Strizich who cut their electoral politics teeth in getting a school levy passed against stiff opposition by knocking on doors. The organization they've been able to create statewide for Medicaid has been remarkable. "I think it speaks to the overall power of this campaign," Emily Strizich said. "This is grassroots at its finest."
They won that levy 3-to-1. So their track record is looking pretty good. That organizing ability—and yes, enthusiasm and anger—is likely to get it done again.