This year, Florida Democrats hope to win control of the State Senate for the first time since 1992. Armed with redrawn, fairer maps; some quality candidates; and a favorable national environment, 2018 represents the best chance that Democrats have had in years to win the chamber. But will all of that be enough?
As of now, I rate control of the chamber at Likely Republican. In order for Democrats to win control, they’d have to win 5 seats, and 4 seats to tie it—which would result in a power-sharing agreement, which is what occurred from 1992-1994—and that’s a tall task. Basically, everything would have to go right for them—with only half of the chamber up for election this year, the target list is limited, and Republicans have some strong incumbents and strong candidates in open seats. There is, however, a chance that everything could go right, as I’ll explore below.
As an initial matter, five Democratic-held districts aren’t being contested by Republicans: District 6 (Gibson), District 30 (Powell), District 32 (Book), District 34 (Farmer), and District 38 (Campbell). These seats are automatically Safe Democratic, and though some of them feature competitive and expensive primaries, it would be impossible for Republicans to flip them. They won’t be analyzed below. Therefore, before any votes have been cast, Democrats start off with 15 seats and Republicans 8—like Democrats are in United States Senate elections, Republicans are disproportionately exposed.
District 2
- Counties: Bay, Holmes, Jackson, Walton, Washington, parts of Okaloosa
- Rating: Safe Republican
- 2016 Presidential Result: 73% Trump, 23% Clinton
- Incumbent Senator: George Gainer (R)
- Analysis: This is, by far, the most conservative district in the state—though 2012 numbers aren’t available, Trump almost assuredly improved on Romney’s already-impressive landslide. Though many of these counties have Democrats elected at the county level, Democrats are usually not at all competitive in higher-level races. That’ll almost assuredly be the case this year, too. First-term incumbent State Senator George Gainer, a former Okaloosa County Commissioner, is seeking re-election here. He does face a Democratic opponent, Mary Jeanne “Gigi” Gibson—and it’s the first time since 1996 that this district or its predecessors has had a Democrat run—but little information is available on her and she stands little chance this year. Even if she had the best possible resume for this district, and even if her campaign were flush with cash, Gainer would still be easily winning re-election. Gainer might slip a few points from the 2016 results, but still, expect him to win more than 65% of the vote, and probably more than 70% of the vote. Safe Republican.
District 4
- Counties: Nassau, parts of Duval
- Rating: Safe Republican
- 2016 Presidential Result: 62% Trump, 35% Clinton
- Incumbent Senator: Aaron Bean (R)
- Analysis: Incumbent Republican State Senator Aaron Bean is seeking his fourth (and final) term in this suburban Jacksonville district. Bean is a longtime veteran of metro Jacksonville politics—he represented this area for eight years in the State House, and before that as Mayor of Fernandina Beach. This year, Bean faces opposition in both the Republican primary and the general election. In the primary, he faces Carlos Slay, a former candidate for Nassau County Tax Collector. Slay might have been recruited to run against Bean by former State Rep. Janet Adkins of Nassau County, a longtime intraparty nemesis of Bean’s. Bean shouldn’t have much difficulty in the primary, and when he advances to the general, he’ll face local Democratic Party activist Billee Bussard and Libertarian Joanna Tavares.
This area, as evidenced by the 2016 presidential election results, is heavily Republican, but it’s starting to trend Democratic. Duval County moved sharply to the left in 2016, and that move was driven by a strong performance by Hillary in the Jacksonville suburbs, which made up for a more lackluster performance in Jacksonville’s African-American communities. Bean will almost assuredly underperform the presidential results—he won his first term in 2012 against current congressional candidate Nancy Soderberg just 62-38 as Mitt Romney was winning 65-34—but not by enough to lose. Look for Bean to win somewhere between 57 and 60% of the vote. Eventually, a Democrat will be able to win here, but that won’t happen this year—while Bussard will probably wage a good campaign, and while Tavares will snatch up some Republican votes, Bean runs good campaigns. Depending on how seriously Democrats invest in Duval—and there’s one Republican-held HD here being seriously contested by a strong Democratic challenger—this race could get a little closer. And in the unlikely event that Slay defeats Bean in the Republican primary, check back in on this race—I’d probably move it to Likely Republican at that point. But unless and until that happens, I’m comfortable rating this as Safe Republican.
District 8
- Counties: Alachua, Putnam, parts of Marion
- Rating: Leans Republican
- 2016 Presidential Result: 48% Trump, 48% Clinton
- Incumbent Senator: Keith Perry (R)
- Analysis: This district, which used to be a compact Republican gerrymander, was pretty radically changed by the Florida Supreme Court in December 2015. It now includes all of reliably-Democratic Alachua County, half of reliably-Republican Marion County, and all of reliably-Republican Putnam County (which is friendlier to Democrats downballot) in a swing district that tilts toward Republicans. Then-State Rep. Keith Perry defeated veteran Gainesville politician Rod Smith—a former State Seator, gubernatorial/lieutenant gubernatorial candidate, and state party chair—53-47 in 2016, clearly outperforming the presidential results. I’m betting that probably doesn’t happen this year. Kayser Enneking, a UF medical school professor, is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination, and she’s already raising good money with the support of the state party. However, Perry starts with a clear advantage—he has good name recognition from his incumbency and from his previous electoral wins in the State House, and he beat Smith by a much wider margin than most people anticipated. This race starts at Leans Republican, but that might be a bit generous to Perry. Enneking has a clear path to victory if she mixes and matches Clinton’s and Smith’s performances, and if she benefits from the national environment.
Despite receiving similar percentages of the vote, Clinton and Smith had very different ways of reaching their numbers. Clinton outperformed Smith in Alachua and Marion Counties by 3% and 2%, respectively, while Smith outperformed Clinton in Putnam by 5%. Realistically, Enneking needs to hit 60% in Alachua, between 38-40% in Marion, and probably 32-34% in Putnam. Given her close affiliation with UF, Alachua’s increasingly trend toward voting for Democrats, and the likelihood of strong turnout among college-aged voters this year, I wouldn’t be surprised if Enneking gets closer to 61-62% in Alachua. (And because Alachua will probably make up between 56-60% of the total votes cast in the district this year, small percentage gains will yield lots of votes.) I’d expect a weaker performance in the rural parts of the district, because even though this is undoubtedly a Gator-friendly region, I suspect that there might be some reluctance to cast a ballot for a professor. Before having a chance to see how the national environment hits this district, I’d guess that Perry probably wins re-election 51-49 or 52-48. Putnam’s downballot friendliness to Democrats notwithstanding, this is a relatively polarized area—it includes a mix of college neighborhoods, African-American communities, strongly conservative rural towns, and retirement communities, each of which pulls the area in a different political direction.
Regardless of how this race turns out, this is as close to a must-win district as it gets if Democrats hope to take the Senate this year. If they’re losing here, their narrow opportunity to win a majority closes even further.
District 10
- Counties: Citrus, Hernando, parts of Pasco
- Rating: Safe Republican
- 2012 Presidential Result: 64% Trump, 32% Clinton
- Incumbent Senator: Wilton Simpson (R)
- Analysis: Incumbent State Senator Wilton Simpson is seeking re-election to his third and final term, and he’s well on his way to winning it. Simpson is slated to be Senate President for the 2020-2022 term, and he’s had an easy time getting to and staying in Tallahassee. When he first ran in 2012, and when he ran for re-election in 2016, he was completely unopposed—so this year will be the first time he’s ever faced an opponent. His Democratic opponent is Michael Cottrell—husband of Dana Cottrell, the Democratic nominee for Congress against Daniel Webster in FL-11, and a former teacher in Hernando County. As Simpson’s first-ever opponent, Cottrell faces long odds—Simpson has raised a huge amount of money, is a future Senate President, and represents a district that took a hard turn to the right in 2016. While Democrats have historically been competitive in Pasco County, part of which is included in this district, a red wave hit its coast in 2016, and swept Democrats out. This district includes a mix of rural and exurban white, working-class voters, and is safely Republican. Simpson probably won’t hit Trump’s numbers this year, but look for him to comfortably win re-election with about 60% of the vote. If Pasco and Hernando County snap back to 2012-era results, Simpson might dip into 57-58% of the vote—but there’s no way he’s losing this year. Safe Republican.
District 12
- Counties: Sumter, parts of Lake, parts of Marion
- Rating: Safe Republican
- 2012 Presidential Result: 64% Trump, 33% Clinton
- Incumbent Senator: Dennis Baxley (R)
- Analysis: Despite only narrowly winning the Republican primary in 2016 against fellow State Rep. H. Marlene O’Toole, incumbent State Senator Dennis Baxley has entrenched himself in this district, which includes southern Marion County and the southern part of Ocala, all of Sumter County (including The Villages), and northern Lake County. This area trended Republican in 2016, and doesn’t look to be changing anytime soon. The population of retirement communities in the area is exploding, and Orlando suburbs in Lake County aren’t experiencing the same slow march toward voting for Democrats that the city’s other suburbs are. This year, Baxley faces Democrat Gary McKechnie, a local celebrity known best for his “motojournalism.” Though McKechnie is a great recruit for Democrats, his path to victory is virtually nonexistent—his best-case scenario is to hold Baxley to winning re-election with “just” 60% of the vote. There’s no need to check back in on this district later this year—if the blue wave hits Florida, it won’t crash on The Villages. Safe Republican.
District 14
- Counties: Parts of Brevard, parts of Volusia
- Rating: Likely Republican
- 2012 Presidential Result: 57% Trump, 39% Clinton
- Incumbent Senator: Dorothy Hukill (R)
- Analysis: In many days, this district is the Space Coast version of the 10th and 16th Districts—it was a light red district before 2016, and then lurched hard to the right because of the white, working-class Floridians who make up the lion’s share of the vote. Incumbent Republican State Senator Dorothy Hukill is seeking re-election to her third and final term. Melissa Martin has emerged as the Democratic nominee, and she has an interesting profile and she’s running a strong campaign. Martin attended the Naval Academy, served as a Judge Advocate General, and continues to practice as an attorney. Her campaign also qualified for the ballot by collecting signatures—no small feat in a district without a strong institutional presence by the Democratic Party.
For now, I’ve rated this race as Likely Republican, but that’s probably too generous to Martin. Hukill is a longtime presence in Volusia County politics, and has served off-and-on in elected office for nearly thirty years—which includes fourteen years representing this area in the Florida House and Senate. So while I think that Hukill is strongly favored, I think that this race could end up in the single digits. It’s my anticipation that the 14th District will snap back at least a bit this year, but almost assuredly not enough for incumbent State Senator Dorothy Hukill to lose re-election. With Bill Nelson, a native son of Brevard County and a former astronaut, on the ballot; a strong anticipated performance by Democrat Nancy Soderberg in the FL-06 race, which includes the northern parts of FL-SD-14; and a Democratic rebound with white, working class voters in other areas around the country, I think that Hukill’s ceiling is probably around 53-57%. If Martin continues to run a strong campaign—and picks up her fundraising—she has an outside chance of a pickup. Martin is helped by the fact that Soderberg is running a serious race, and some solid Democratic candidates have lined up for all of the State House districts contained within this District. So I think that Martin can keep it close, but I don’t think that it’ll be close enough for her to win. Still, depending on how Soderberg does in her race, I might re-evaluate this one as the year progresses.
District 16
- Counties: Parts of Pasco, parts of Pinellas
- Rating: Leans Republican
- 2016 Presidential Result: 54% Trump, 42% Clinton
- Incumbent Senator: None.
- Analysis: This district, which includes the northern suburbs of St. Petersburg, as well as New Port Richey in Pasco County, lurched far to the right in 2016. It switched from a narrowly-Romney district to a strongly-Trump district, and the extent to which Democrats are able to turn back that tide will determine the ultimate outcome here. This seat was represented for nearly 16 years by long-time incumbent and Tampa Bay fixture Jack Latvala—who resigned in December following serious allegations of sexual harassment. Rather than call a special election—which would cost millions and would be so far delayed that the winner wouldn’t even be able to serve in a legislative session before running for re-election—Governor Scott allowed the seat to be filled this November.
The likely Republican nominee is former State Rep. Ed Hooper, who has a moderate reputation and a decent electoral history. He won re-election to his swing House District in 2012 even as Barack Obama was winning it, 52-47. However, when he was termed out in 2014, he ran for the Pinellas County Commission instead—and lost to Democrat Pat Gerard. Hooper’s 2014 loss can easily be chalked up to former Gov. and current Congressman Charlie Crist’s strong performance in Pinellas, but losing a Republican-held seat in 2014 raises a red flag. Hooper’s been running for this seat for a few years, and has stockpiled quite a bit of money. He starts as the slight favorite here.
Running for Democrats is the strongest possible candidate: former State Rep. Amanda Murphy, who represented her coastal, Pasco County district from a stunning win in a 2013 special election to her narrow, surprise loss in 2016. Murphy has strong crossover appeal—she only lost re-election in 2016 by a few hundred votes as her HD swung from 52-47 Obama to 58-38 Trump, the biggest swing in any HD statewide. Her campaign this year is a boon to Democrats’ chances of taking the Senate, and she’s already proved herself to be a strong contender: in her first month in the race, she nearly eclipsed Hooper’s monthly fundraising haul, despite announcing her campaign nine days into the month.
Hooper starts with a clear advantage here. This district’s Republican swing in 2016 can’t be discounted, and nor can Hooper’s sizable financial advantage or his strong name recognition. But, as mentioned above, Murphy is a strong candidate. Democrats are seriously contesting races up and down the ballot in Pinellas County this year—and Crist is running a strong re-election campaign against two weak Republican opponents. His organizing machine can probably help Murphy in central Pinellas County, Hooper’s home base. I'd also expect Murphy to do quite well in the Pasco slice in this district. So I think that the race will ultimately come down to the cities in northern Pinellas County, like Dunedin and Tarpon Springs, which normally lean Republican, but which have never seen Hooper or Murphy on a ballot before. This is where Murphy will win or lose—if she breaks through with a strong campaign, and if the national environment convinces this area’s usual Republican voters to either stay home or back Murphy, then she’ll win. But, of course, in order for this scenario to come true, everything has to go right: if Hooper runs up the score in central Pinellas (and if Crist’s organizing advantage doesn’t trickle down) then Murphy doesn’t have a shot. I think that’s slightly more likely than not, which is why this seat starts at Leans Republican. Early polling shows Murphy and Hooper essentially tied, 44-44—but I’m skeptical of polling for a state legislative race this early, and I think that Hooper has an easier path to 50%. (I’m also skeptical that Murphy will be able to win 20% of Republican voters.) But check back in as the year progresses, and this race might make its way to tossup. We’re just not there yet.
District 18
- Counties: Parts of Hillsborough
- Rating: Tossup
- 2016 Presidential Result: 51% Clinton, 45% Romney
- Incumbent Senator: Dana Young (R)
- Analysis: This district is based in northwest Hillsborough County, and includes the city of Tampa and many of its northern suburbs, which swung toward Democrats in 2016. Indeed, then-State Rep. Dana Young, who represented parts of Tampa in the State House, only won her first term that year against a first-time candidate, 48-41 while Joe Redner, a left-leaning indie candidate, won 9%. This year, the indie isn’t running—and State Rep. Janet Cruz, Democrats’ strongest possible candidate, is. Young starts with a solid financial lead, and an apparent lead in the polls, but I think that this district is ripe for a Democratic pickup. I actually think it’s the second-likeliest Democratic pickup statewide, and I expect to move it to Leans Democratic (or at least Tossup/Tilts Democratic) later this year. But for now, it starts at Tossup.
Let’s talk about why. Hillary did quite well here in 2016—and did well in Tampa’s other suburbs in Hillsborough—but voters here have a tendency to vote for Republicans downballot. Had Redner not run in 2016, I don’t think that Young would’ve lost—I think that she probably would’ve won something like 51-49 or 52-48. Her strength as a candidate, coupled with her effective campaigning and crushing financial advantage, can’t be understated. But nor can Cruz’s strength as a candidate. Cruz has mostly coasted to re-election in her solidly-Democratic State House District, but she’s a savvy operator and can likely turn out Hispanic voters in this incredibly diverse district. And at the top of the ticket, look for Bill Nelson and the Democratic gubernatorial nominee to crush here—so long as most of that strength trickles down to Cruz, she has a decent shot at winning.
Beyond that, there’s not much to say. This is a classic swing district, with two (relatively) evenly-matched candidates. If top-of-the-ticket voting trends carry the day, Cruz wins. If Young’s financial advantage allows her to out-organize Cruz, Young wins. I think that the former is slightly likelier than the latter. To that end, I think that a decent, albeit flawed, analog for this district is the southern California congressional districts in Orange County—the result here might end up previewing the results in OC.
District 20
- Counties: Parts of Hillsborough, parts of Pasco, parts of Polk
- Rating: Likely Republican
- 2016 Presidential Result: 52% Trump, 44% Clinton
- Incumbent Senator: Tom Lee (R)
- Analysis: This district is a bit of a hodgepodge of the areas that didn’t fit cleanly into another district—as a result, it includes the blue-trending northern suburbs of Tampa in Temple Terrace; Plant City, the red-trending exurb of Tampa; some of northern Lakeland in Polk County; and rural, white working class Tampa exurbs in east Pasco County. On balance, this district is probably slowly trending more toward Republicans, but it has some areas of Democratic strength. As Polk’s Hispanic population continues exploding, this district—or its successors—could end up becoming more competitive. But it’s not that competitive today.
Incumbent State Sen. Tom Lee is running for re-election to his final term, and he’s well-known here. (He faces a Republican primary challenger, but he’s going to win without much trouble.) He represented this area in the Senate from 1996 to 2006, during which time he served as President of the Florida Senate, and lost a close race for CFO to Alex Sink. He ran again in 2012, and won 54-46. After the Florida Supreme Court struck down the state’s Senate maps, Lee’s district dropped its reach into southern Hillsborough and added the Pasco and Polk sections, and he won re-election in 2016 unopposed. All of that is to say that the non-Hillsborough parts of this district don’t know Lee that well, and are sometimes friendly to voting for Democrats downballot.
Democrats Joy Gibson and Kathy Lewis are running here. Gibson is a former grassroots organizer, congressional staffer, and businesswoman, while Lewis is a motivational speaker. Neither has caught fire quite yet, and neither has raised serious money, though Lewis has doubled what Gibson has brought in so far. I’d tentatively rate Gibson as the likelier nominee, and a stronger general election candidate, but I’m not confident in either prediction. The Democratic bench here—and the party’s organizing infrastructure—is pretty much nonexistent, so neither Gibson nor Lewis could expect much institutional support in the general. Still, this district overlaps pretty significantly with FL-15, which could end up being competitive, especially if firebrand Neil Combee is the Republican nominee there. Some of that competitiveness might end up trickling down, and I suppose that Lee could be in trouble in a really bad year for Republicans—but neither of those events strike me as particularly likely. I think it’s likelier that I’d move this race to Safe Republican later this year than Leans Republican. In any event, I think that Lee ends up winning by high single-digits or low double-digits—probably somewhere between 54-46 and 57-43—and that it’s really hard for a Democrat to gain those final few points here.
District 22
- Counties: Parts of Lake, parts of Polk
- Rating: Leans Republican
- 2016 Presidential Result: 52% Trump, 45% Clinton
- Incumbent Senator: Kelli Stargel (R)
- Analysis: This race may not end up being one of the most competitive ones on Election Day, but I think it’ll be one of the most interesting ones to watch. Two-term Republican State Sen. Kelli Stargel is running for re-election to her third and final term, and she’ll likely face retired state judge Bob Doyel in the general election. Stargel won re-election here in 2016 just 53-47 against an underfunded Democratic nominee, and Doyel is a more serious candidate. Still, the area’s Republican lean and lack of Democratic Party infrastructure persuades me that Stargel will probably win re-election. This race starts out at Leans Republican.
Stargel has been raising decent money, but has never faced a serious Democratic opponent before, so she’s relatively untested as a campaigner. Doyel is a pretty good get for Democrats, though he does have a primary with former State Rep. Ricardo Rangel, who won a 2012 State House race for an Osceola County-based HD in kind of a fluke, before losing re-election in the 2014 Democratic primary, and a comeback bid in the 2016 Democratic primary. Rangel’s not raised much money, he’s not represented a square inch of this territory, and Hispanic residents of the district have a low primary turnout rate, so Doyel is the clear favorite in the primary. He also stands a good chance in the general. He was our nominee in FL-HD-41, which swung from 50-49 Romney to 51-46 Trump. He lost the race 53-47, which normally wouldn’t speak to his ability to win in a more conservative district. But he’s doing a good job this year—he’s raised good money and qualified for the ballot by petition, which speaks to his organizing skills.
Doyel is going to be outspent at least 3-1, however, and Stargel has the benefit of incumbency and this area’s decided Republican lean. Still, this district, like SD-20, overlaps with FL-15, and a combined effort between the congressional and State Senate campaigns to organize and register voters could make a difference. Plus, this area has seen an influx of Puerto Ricans displaced by hurricanes. It’s unclear how many have settled here, and what their turnout rate will be, but the combination of a favorable national environment, a more diverse district, and a strong Democratic campaign could be the recipe for success. But at this point, I don’t think that’s likely, to the detriment of Democrats’ statewide chances. This district is one that Democrats are probably winning if they win a Senate majority. I think a narrow Stargel win, probably 52-48, is the likeliest outcome—and Doyel gaining that final 2% will be hard. Doable, but hard.
District 23
- Counties: Sarasota, parts of Charlotte
- Rating: Likely Republican
- 2016 Presidential Result: 56% Trump, 41% Clinton
- Incumbent Senator: Greg Steube (R), running for Congress
- Analysis: After just two years in the State Senate, State Sen. Greg Steube is running for Congress in the race to replace retiring Republican Congressman Tom Rooney. He leaves behind an open seat in a district that includes all of light-red Sarasota County and the western part of solidly-red Charlotte County. The clear frontrunner is Republican State Rep. Joe Gruters, who was Donald Trump’s Florida campaign chair. Gruters is buoyed by the fact that this is an area with a fairly strong Republican lean, and a greater tendency to vote for Republicans downballot—Steube was winning his first term 59-41 as Trump won here 56-41, and Republicans running in State House races experienced a similar benefit.
Opposing Steube is Democratic nominee Olivia Babis, an experienced grassroots organizer and disability rights advocate. Babis, in turn, might be buoyed by the fact that David Shapiro is running a strong campaign in FL-16, which overlaps with the Sarasota County portion of this district, and that State Rep. Margaret Good is running a strong re-election campaign in FL-HD-72, which is fully contained within SD-23.
Overall, Gruters starts with a solid advantage over Babis—so I’m putting this at Likely Republican. I also think it’s likelier that this race moves to solid Republican, but I’m not there yet. If Babis’s fundraising picks up, if swing voters express their disapproval of Trump by voting against his state campaign chairman, and if Shapiro’s and Good’s organizing trickles down, Gruters might lose, or this might become a closer race that he’s still favored to win. But those are a lot of “if”s and I don’t think that all of them are likely. The likeliest outcome is Gruters winning by low dougle-digits, something like 56-44 or 57-43.
District 24
- Counties: Parts of Pinellas
- Rating: Leans Republican
- 2016 Presidential Result: 51% Trump, 45% Romney
- Incumbent Senator: Jeff Brandes (R)
- Analysis: This district is a testament to several things—the strength of Republican gerrymandering, the extent to which Pinellas County lurched to the right, and incumbent Republican State Sen. Jeff Brandes’s strength as a candidate. If the Florida Supreme Court agreed that FL-SD-19 (parts of which are shown in orange) didn’t need to jump across the bay in order for black voters to elect a black Senator in the Democratic primary, Brandes would be in a lot more trouble. This district also flipped from a narrow Obama district to a slightly more comfortable Trump district. And, on top of all that, Brandes is a great candidate—he turned back a well-funded Democratic challenger in 2014, 58-42, and is a fundraising machine.
Democrats are running attorney Carrie Pilon, the daughter-in-law of former Republican State Rep. Ray Pilon, who endorsed Brandes. (Really.) Pilon enjoys strong support from the state Democratic Party, local Democrats, and trial lawyers, and has been raising decent money. Her difficulty is that Brandes is a well-liked, relatively moderate incumbent who will probably outspend her 4-1 or 5-1 unless the Florida Democratic Party intervenes. And unfortunately for the state party, this is probably one of the districts that it needs to win if it wants a chance at Senate control.
I’m starting this race at Leans Republican, but it wouldn't surprise me if it moves to Likely Republican. But here’s why I’m keeping it at Leans for now. Less than a year ago, the conventional wisdom was that St. Petersburg Mayor Rick Kriseman would lose to popular former Mayor Rick Baker—and instead, Kriseman managed a narrow victory. While Brandes will run a better campaign than Baker did, it shows St. Pete voters are willing to toss a well-liked Republican for his Democratic opponent because of their disapproval of Trump. I think that if Pilon is able to nationalize the race—especially if she gets endorsements from Barack Obama, Joe Biden, and the like—and raise cash more than she’s done so far and benefit from Crist’s organizing machine, she can pull out a narrow win. This district is quite willing to vote for Democrats downballot, shown by Democrats’ majority on the Pinellas County Commission. A coordinated effort among Pilon, Crist, and someone like Jennifer Webb, running for State House in south Pinellas, could make a real difference in this race.
Here’s why I might move it to Likely: Brandes is a known quantity, and won in 2014, even as Crist was romping here. He clearly has an ability to convince swing voters to support him, even if they’re supporting Democrats elsewhere on their ballot. If his fundraising advantage kills any chance Pilon has of building momentum, he’ll win with relative ease. Still, Brandes shouldn’t get comfortable—Pilon is probably the most serious challenger he’s faced to date.
District 25
- Counties: Martin, St. Lucie, parts of Palm Beach
- Rating: Likely Republican
- 2016 Presidential Result: 54% Trump, 43% Clinton
- Incumbent Senator: Joe Negron (R), retiring
- Analysis: Until this district lurched right in 2016, it looked like Democrats might make a serious play for it in 2020, when Negron faced term limits and when Democrats hoped that State Rep. Larry Lee would run. A lot’s changed since then—Martin and St. Lucie Counties trended toward Republicans, and though Patrick Murphy carried St. Lucie in his Senate campaign, Hillary lost it after Obama won it twice. And Negron's decision to resign, triggering a special election in November, caused the district to open up this year. A competitive Republican primary is brewing between long-time Republican State Rep. Gayle Harrell and Keiser University Vice-Chancellor Belinda Keiser.
I think that Harrell is probably the frontrunner—she’s represented her Republican-leaning HD for sixteen (non-consecutive) years, and enjoys wide support from the Republican Party of Florida. But Harrell will definitely be outspent. Keiser wrote herself a check for $500K, which dwarfs Harrell’s $124K (including a $100K check from Harrell herself). If Keiser has the resources to introduce herself to the voters in Martin and Palm Beach Counties who have never been represented by Harrell, nor seen her name on a ballot since her 2008 congressional campaign, she might be able to win. And while Keiser’s affiliation with the University might cut against her—the University has a reputation, fair or not, as a diploma mill—Republican primary voters in Florida have shown that they’re willing to look past a questionable business background to support someone whose vision they agree with. I’m interested to see how Keiser’s campaign develops.
Accordingly, I think that Keiser as the Republican nominee would open the door to Robert Levy, the Democratic nominee. Levy is a personally wealthy physician and businessman with deep roots in the area, and has already written himself checks for $150K. He’s a first-time candidate, and if he proves to have campaign chops, he could turn this race into a sleeper pickup opportunity. Accordingly, I’m putting this race at Likely Republican. I’m bullish on Levy’s chances, especially against Keiser, but I hesitate to move this race to Leans Republican until I know how the Republican primary develops and until Levy has a chance to prove himself. Definitely check back on this race as the year develops, however—I wouldn't be surprised if I move the rating in Democrats’ favor, but I don't think that there’s a likely universe in which this race turns into a Safe Republican race. Watch this space.
District 26
- Counties: DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Highlands, Okeechobee, parts of Charlotte, parts of Lee, parts of Polk
- Rating: Safe Republican
- 2016 Presidential Result: 64% Trump, 33% Clinton
- Incumbent Senator: Denise Grimsley (R), retiring
- Analysis: This seat, based in southern Polk County and the state’s Heartland region, is the safest Republican seat outside of the Panhandle. Incumbent Republican State Sen. Denise Grimsley opted to run for Agriculture Commissioner rather than seek re-election. Either way, this race won’t be competitive for Democrats. Term-limited Republican State Rep. Ben Albritton, a farmer who’s represented this area since 2010 in the State House, is the clear favorite to succeed Grimsley, and has a clear path to do so—he’s unopposed in the Republican primary, and faces teacher Catherine Price in the general election. Price is a serious, earnest candidate, and I think that a serious organizing effort by the FDP or a national group to get Hispanic residents of the Heartland registered to vote could pay serious dividends. Many of these counties are approaching plurality Hispanic status, and registering Hispanic farmworkers could put several HDs—along with this SD, possibly FL-17, and countless county offices—into play. But such an effort would take years to bear fruit, and Price has neither the time nor the resources to launch it before Election Day. Albritton will win easily, and is probably one of the few Republican State Senate candidates who could end up outperforming Trump—I wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up winning 66-34 or 67-33, but I think that a 64-36 or 65-35 win is likeliest.
District 28
- Counties: Collier, Hendry, parts of Lee
- Rating: Safe Republican
- 2016 Presidential Result: 61% Trump, 37% Clinton
- Incumbent Senator: Kathleen Passidomo (R)
- Analysis: An under-discussed trend of the 2016 election was the notable trend to the left that Collier County experienced—it went from 65-35 Romney to 61-35 Trump. Though it's far from being competitive, the wealthy, white voters of Collier are trending toward supporting Democrats long term. But for now, the area’s solid Republican lean is to the benefit of first-term State Sen. Kathleen Passidomo, seeking her second term this year. She faces a Democratic opponent this November—and it’s the first time since 1990 that this district or its predecessor has had a Democratic candidate. Annisa Karim, who briefly ran for Congress against Congressman Mario Diaz-Balart in FL-25 before Mary Barzee Flores entered the race, is the Democratic nominee here. Karim works for the Lee County Department of Parks and Recreation, is the former Chair of the Collier County Democratic Party, and ran for the Collier County Commission in 2016. Karim is a serious candidate running a serious campaign, but her odds of winning this year are quite close to zero. Expect Passidomo to underperform Trump’s 2016 score, and to win re-election with an end result somewhere between 58-42 and 62-38. Safe Republican.
District 36
- Counties: Parts of Miami-Dade
- Rating: Tossup
- 2016 Presidential Result: 56% Clinton, 42% Trump
- Incumbent Senator: Rene Garcia (R), term-limited
- Analysis: This district, like many heavily Cuban-American Miami-based districts, is historically Republican—but the nomination of Donald Trump changed many Cuban-Americans’ voting patterns. This district flipped from a narrow Obama victory to a sizable Hillary victory, while incumbent Republican State Sen. Rene Garcia won re-election only 55-45 against an unheralded, underfunded Democratic opponent. This year, Garcia, a well-known moderate with a strong electoral history, is term-limited, and Democrats are ready to pounce. Republicans have nominated State Rep. Manny Diaz, Jr. (no relation to the former Miami Mayor), a three-term state representative who’s represented a 59-39 Hillary, 55-45 Obama HD based in Miramar and Hialeah. Diaz won re-election in 2016 against a strong Democratic challenger, 53-47, and he’s no slouch.
Democrats tried to convince former Miami-Dade County Mayor Alex Penelas to run here, but he demurred. Instead, they recruited David Perez, a former Penelas spokesman who currently works as a firefighter lieutenant in Coral Gables and has strong support from the party.
This race starts out as a Tossup. Each party has a reason to feel confident about their chances to win this seat. Republicans like Diaz’s electoral success, his behemoth fundraising, and the area’s strong tendency to vote for Republicans downballot, even while it votes for Democrats at the top of the ticket. Democrats like Perez’s profile, the partisan lean of the district, the national environment, the antipathy that many Hispanic voters have for Donald Trump, and the long-term trends of the area. This far out, it’s hard to tell which of these factors will weigh most heavily, but there are some factors that hint toward a possible Democratic victory. Democrats recently won a hotly-contested race for the Miami-Dade County Commission—with an underfunded (white) candidate squaring off against the wife of the former County Commissioner—which gave them a majority on the Commission. Just earlier this year, Democrat Javier Fernandez won a special election in FL-HD-114, which mirrors this district’s partisan lean, despite also being outspent and running against a strong Republican candidate. And last year, in SD-40, which is only slightly more Democratic-leaning, Annette Taddeo won a blockbuster special election despite being outspent by popular Republican State Rep. Jose Felix Diaz. And in 2016, then-State Rep. Jose Javier Rodriguez unseated Republican State Sen. Miguel Diaz de la Portilla, the scion of a well-known Republican family, 49-46. Notice a trend? On the other hand, Republicans can point to their own successes—on the same day that Taddeo won, Republican Daniel Perez won a special election to the State House in a 51-46 Hillary HD in a 66-34 landslide. Indeed, despite Hillary winning every single Miami-Dade SD/HD in 2016, Republicans only lost one SD, keeping their other two seats, and one HD, keeping their other six seats.
In the end, this is one of Democrats’ likeliest pickups, along with SD-18. If Democrats don’t win here, they’re absolutely not winning the Senate. At this point, I think that the environment favors Perez, and that the national environment is more important than Diaz’s strengths and cash, though I’m not confident in that conclusion. And unless the FDP wants Perez to stall out, it needs to send in the reinforcements, because Diaz has been organizing and walking the district for months. This is definitely a district to check back on, and here are the things to look for:
- Is Perez able to avoid being outspent 4-1 or 5-1?
- By late September to mid-October, has the NRCC triaged Carlos Curbelo in FL-26 and/or the open seat in FL-27?
- Have the NRCC or other Republican-affiliated groups made television reservations to protect Mario Diaz-Balart?
- Have either the Democratic gubernatorial nominee or Bill Nelson opened up at least a modest lead over their Republican opponents?
District 40
- Counties: Parts of Miami-Dade
- Rating: Likely Democratic
- 2016 Presidential Result: 58% Clinton, 40% Trump
- Incumbent Senator: Annette Taddeo (D)
- Analysis: In the aftermath of former Republican State Sen. Frank Artiles’s resignation, many looked to the special election in SD-40 as a sign of what to expect in 2018. The Republicans ran term-limited State Rep. Jose Felix Diaz, who was highly-regarded in the State House and raised good money. Annette Taddeo—perhaps best known for serving as Charlie Crist’s running mate in 2014—emerged as the Democratic nominee. Diaz and Taddeo squared off in an election that was widely seen as Diaz’s to lose—he had the substantial financial advantage, the history of Miami-Dade Cuban American voters supporting Republicans downballot, and the conventional wisdom that he was the stronger candidate. Indeed, Republicans entered Election Day with a lead in absentee balloting (though a narrowing lead) with many anticipating that they would win the Election Day vote. The election also took place in the aftermath of Hurricane Irma, which left some of the district’s predominantly black neighborhoods without power longer than other areas in the county.
But instead of the modest Diaz win that many expected, Taddeo was the one who came out ahead, 51-47. It was a substantial underperformance from Hillary’s landslide a year prior, but an incredibly strong performance for a Democrat in a downballot race in Miami. Diaz swore off a rematch this year, instead returning to practicing law, and for a while, Republicans were without a candidate. Some speculated that former State Sen. Frank Artiles would launch a comeback bid, but it didn’t end up panning out. Republican Marili Cancio, a Miami Dade College trustee who moved into the district to run, ended up as the Republican nominee, and has the support of the state party.
While Cancio will probably prove to be a strong candidate, she’ll have a hard time unseating Taddeo. Demographics may not be destiny yet for Florida Democrats, but Taddeo has the wind in her sails—this area is rapidly trending blue, this isn’t the year to unseat an incumbent Democrat, and the top of the ticket should perform well here. Taddeo may not win by a huge margin, but I think that she’ll end up winning 54-46 or 55-45. Cancio might keep it closer than that, but she’ll have a hard time pushing Taddeo below 50%. This race starts at Likely Democratic. I think it'll stay that way until Election Day.
Conclusion
Democrats’ optimism that they can win the Florida State Senate this year isn’t entirely misplaced—the map makes that optimism warranted, though perhaps slightly unreasonable. If Democrats run the table on competitive races, they could win the chamber. I just don’t think that’s very likely right now.
To rank these races in order of their likelihood of flipping:
- SD-18 (Young)
- SD-38 (Garcia, open)
- SD-08 (Perry)
- SD-16 (Vacant, open)
- SD-24 (Brandes)
- SD-22 (Stargel)
- SD-25 (Negron, open)
- SD-14 (Hukill)
- SD-20 (Lee)
- SD-23 (Steube, open)
- SD-04 (Bean)
- SD-28 (Passidomo)
- SD-10 (Simpson)
- SD-12 (Baxley)
- SD-26 (Grimsley, open)
- SD-02 (Gainer)
The likeliest outcome to me is winning between 2-3 seats, which would still be an excellent position heading into 2020, and a pretty significant gain, given Republicans’ geographic advantage in the Senate maps. I think that the likeliest gains are obviously SD-18 and SD-38—if Democrats aren’t winning those, they’re probably not having a great night in Florida. And if Democrats win even just one of SD-08, SD-16, SD-22, or SD-24, they’re probably having a very good night. But winning back the chamber means that the candidates run close to perfect campaigns, and that the national environment continues developing in a way that greatly favors Democrats. So the chamber’s rating starts off at Likely Republican. But we’ll see what happens this year.
What do you think will happen?