Despite Colorado becoming a Democratic-leaning state in recent years, Republicans control the Senate by just 1 vote (18-17). This puts Democrats on the offensive in their attempt to flip the chamber and complete the trifecta in the Centennial State after the 2018 elections. In November, 17 of the 35 seats are up for election and without further ado, let’s go to the race rating chart:
Colorado Senate Ratings
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
|
5 (D) |
16 (R) |
|
6 (R) |
|
20 (D) |
24 (R) |
|
15 (R) |
|
22 (D) |
|
|
|
Lean D: 5, 20, 22
5th District: Kerry Donovan
SD-5 encompasses a large portion of the eastern half of the state, including skiing resort towns like Aspen and Vail. It is a very swingy district, with a D+1 PVI and Clinton and Obama both won here by about 5 points. The incumbent Donovan won this seat when it was open in 2014, an impressive feat given the poor national environment for Democrats, snaring it by about 2 points. In 2018, she will be facing environmental public service dude Olen Lund, who seems like a solid candidate. However, the power of incumbency + district lean and national environment being Dem friendly makes me put this in Lean D.
20th District: Open (Jhan)
Located in the western Denver suburbs, SD-20 is a slightly Democratic leaning district, with a D+2 PVI. In 2014, the incumbent Cheri Jhan won reelection by the slimmest of margins and is term limited for 2018, meaning it is open. However, Democrats have the clearly stronger candidate in the race, with State Rep. Jessie Danielson running for Team Blue, while the GOP has small businesswoman Christine Jensen. While this is a swingy district, Clinton won here by about 9 points in 2016 and it’s just hard to imagine a Democrat losing this district in 2018, especially when they are the stronger candidate. Thus, this district belongs in Lean D.
22nd District: Open (Kerr)
SD-22 is pretty close by, in the southwestern corner of the Denver area and has a similar D+3 PVI. Also like SD-20, it is an open seat that Democrats must defend. But in similar fashion, they are the favorites to do so, with the district lean in their favor (Clinton and Obama both won SD-22 by 9) and Dems have a State Rep. in the race, Brittany Patterson. On the other side, Republicans are running Tony Sanchez again, who lost to the incumbent Kerr by a narrow margin in 2014. He will have to prove he can outperform his 2014 numbers in a worse 2018 environment for GOPers. Not impossible, but again, I think Dems are the favorites here.
Tossup: 16, 24
16th District: Tim Neville
Democrats have two good pickup opportunities and this is option #1. The good news for Republicans is they have an incumbent in the seat in Tim Neville, but it’s going to be an uphill battle to hang on here. SD-16 is on the outskirts of the western Denver area stretching outwards to take in some rural area. Clinton improved on Obama’s margins here, with President 44 winning by 3 and Clinton winning by 9, underscoring the problems for Neville, who won by a small margin (2 points) in 2014. Unfortunately for Democrats, they don’t have a great recruit, with Tammy Story being in the race. She is an education activist who’s been rather active in that regard, but she was unable to win a State House election last fall which raises some questions about the caliber of her candidacy. But the district fundamentals as a D+1 PVI seat and the national environment make this a clear tossup.
24th District: Beth Martinez Humenik
Here is the best pickup opportunity of all for Democrats. Located in the northern Denver suburbs (Northglenn area), this is a D+2 PVI seat that Clinton and Obama both won by over 5 points, presenting a great shot at the one crucial flip. Martinez Humenik won the seat by less than 2 points when it was open in 2014, making her distinctly vulnerable in 2018 and Dems have State Rep. Faith Winter in the race. If I had to guess at this point in time, I’d probably make Winter a favorite to unseat Martinez Humenik with the national winds at her back and favorable district fundamentals, but you can’t count out Martinez Humenik since she is an incumbent. So for now, we’ll leave it in tossup.
Likely R: 6, 15
6th District: Don Coram
These final two competitive seats are in wave territory, ones that are probably only falling in an extreme tidal wave scenario. The incumbent Coram became State Senator via a vacancy comittee last year, so he’s never actually been on the ballot here, though he’ll get a leg up from the district’s lean. SD-6 is an R+7 PVI district that saw Romney and Trump win by at least 9 points, though a substantial third party presence left their vote shares at barely above 50%. Retired guy Guinn Unger seems to be running an okay campaign for Democrats, but he’s a major underdog at this point in time.
15th District: Open (Lundberg)
The incumbent Lundberg is term limited which is why this R+7 seat is potentially competitive, even when Romney and Trump won by margins of 8+ points. Restauranteur Rob Woodard is running for the GOP and he’s fine, while Dems have Loveland City Council member Rebecca Cranston who seems good enough to make things interesting, but this is a pretty red district so it’s not really one to watch.
Democratic Path to a majority
This is pretty simple. Step one is to defend your seats, which shouldn’t be too difficult given that they all lean Democratic in a Democratically leaning year. Step two is to flip one of the two tossups. At this time, the 24th is more likely to flip and probably favored to do so. While the incumbents make SD-16 and SD-24 tricky, the district fundamentals favor Dems and you only need one to take the majority.
Bottom Line
This chamber really deserves Tilt D, but I don’t do tilt ratings, so I’ll call it a tossup chamber. It’s not a sure thing that Democrats flip it but they are the favorites to do so at this time.
Chamber Rating: Tossup
Estimate if election were held today: no change to D+2