I happened to catch Hardball last night, when Steve Kornacki asked his panel about Democrats being motivated by Trump. Here’s what Republican strategist Susan Del Percio had to say (sorry, no link):
We don’t know what [millennials] are going to do. We know that they definitely have a horrible view of the Republican Party. If there’s a way of tapping into that … Here’s a problem with [the enthusiasm gap]: The Republican base turns out; they know what the numbers are. The Republicans have been focused on “this is the number I need to win.”
On the Democratic side — and we saw this in New York, in the [June] primaries, in more than one seat — when you don’t know who’s showing up to vote, it doesn’t poll the same.
And you can get a much wider diverse turnout than you can ever expect. We’ve seen it in 2017, we’ve seen numbers, 30-40 percent — in districts, county executive races here in New York — increase on the Democratic side. So that’s the unpredictable part. The Republican side is very predictable, they’re not going to appeal to anybody else.
I write a lot about primary turnout, which I believe is a good preview of general election turnout. Turns out some Goopers do too. I also agree with her about millennials. There are indications that the under-30’s will be voting in record numbers.
And Ms. Del Percio is spot on about polling: This year, polls are not a dependable means of forecasting the upcoming election results. We know that Republicans will vote — that’s what they do. But the ceiling for Democratic turnout is much higher, with the potential for an electoral massacre in November.