Our next state legislative chamber in this series can be found in the Granite State, New Hampshire. With its State Senate up every 2 years, it is often reactive to large swings in the national environment, and Democrats are hoping that that fact will put them back in the majority. Republicans hold a narrow 14-10 majority entering these elections, making it a pivotal battleground chamber. Before we get into the ratings table, I’d like to give Daily Kos Elections’s own ProudNewEnglander a big shoutout, for sharing insight on NH politics that was very helpful for the making of this piece, so kudos! Without further ado, let’s take a look at the ratings table:
New Hampshire Senate Ratings
Likely D |
Lean D |
Tossup |
Lean R |
Likely R |
18 (D) |
16 (D) |
2 (R) |
6 (R) |
11 (R) |
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7 (R) |
23 (R) |
17 (R) |
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8 (R) |
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9 (R) |
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12 (R) |
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24 (R) |
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Likely D: 18
18th District: Donna Soucy
One of just two Democratically-held seats that I consider to be competitive, SD-18 is found in part of Manchester, New Hampshire. Donna Soucy first one this seat by winning a fractured three-way field in 2012 and then she followed it up by beating George Lambert in 2014 by 7 points and another win over a foe by 10 in 2016. In 2018, she’s facing George Lambert again and while this is an R+2 district that went to Trump, she remains a heavy favorite to win re-election given her stellar track record and a strong national environment.
Lean D: 16
16th District: Kevin Cavanaugh
This is the most likely seat to flip from D → R, and it’s still not very likely. Found in Merrimack and Hillsborough Counties, SD-16 had a special election last year that saw Democrat Kevin Cavanaugh hold an R+2 seat that Clinton narrowly won. He won that special election by a 55-45 margin, an impressive showing that mirrors special election results nationwide. Cavanaugh heads into the fall as a favorite to keep his seat, facing either David Boutin, who lost the special to him, or Bill Kuch, a State Rep..
Tossup: 2, 7, 8, 9, 12, 24
2nd District: Bob Giuda
This district is split between three counties, Belknap, Merrimack, and Grafton, and it is one of the geographically largest districts in the State Senate. It has an R+1 PVI and it is held by Bob Giuda, who won it in 2016 as an open seat by an 8 point margin. With a better national environment, Democrats are hoping to topple Guida in 2018, behind candidate Bill Bolton. Bolton is a retired state employee and has served in some capacities in local Plymouth government. He has a sizable amount in the bank, enough to compete with Giuda, and this is a district to watch in the fall.
7th District: Harold French
The closest race in this chamber in 2016 by far was Harold French’s contest against then-incumbent Democrat Andrew Hosmer. French won by just 17 votes in this Belknap/Merrimack Counties district that simultaneously swung from Obama +5 to Trump +13. In 2018, Democrats are going after French to try and win the seat back via Mason Donovan, a business owner and a board member in the Town of Webster. Donovan has raised a fair bit of money and this should be a competitive race in a swingy seat that could be crucial for the majority.
8th District: Ruth Ward
This seat was open in 2016, when Republican Ruth Ward won it by a 6 point margin, 53-47. That result was pretty similar to Trump’s 7 point win in this R+2 district that Obama won by 4.5 points in 2012. Ward will be out to defend her seat in 2018 and is faced with Democrat Jenn Alford-Teaster. Alford-Teaster has a very compelling personal backstory and she’s raised quite a bit of money so far, so I get the sense that she is going to be a very good candidate for the NH Dems to run. Given the narrow margin of victory in 2016 and the swinginess of this chamber as a whole, this profiles as a tossup race.
9th District: Open (Sanborn)
Another Democratic pickup opportunity can be found here in SD-9, split between Cheshire and Hillsborough Counties. It’s an R+2 district and won that Clinton won. Republicans have a pair of State Reps. in the race, Terry Wolf and Dan Hynes, while Democrats have an intriguing three way field. That field consists of Jeanne Dietsch, who serves in local government, Mark Fernald, who was once a State Senator and his party’s unsuccessful gubernatorial nominee in 2002, and Bruce Fox, a guy who runs a local farm. All three either have the credentials or the money to be legit candidates, though it’s thought that Fernald could be hazardous given his past harsh pro-tax stances. For that reason, I’m exercising caution and marking it down as a tossup.
12th District: Kevin Avard
SD-12 is found mostly in Hillsborough County at the bottom of the state along the Massachusetts border and is held by Republican Kevin Avard. He first won this seat narrowly in 2014 by beating incumbent Democrat Peggy Gilmour. Gilmour returned for a rematch in 2016, losing again by just 2 points. In 2018, Democrats have different candidates to try and beat Avard in this R+3 seat, Tom Falter and Melanie Levesque. Falter is a glazier and has the backing of labor unions, while Levesque is a former State Rep.. Avard and the two Democrats have raised very similar amounts of money at this juncture of the race and given that this is a seat that has had close elections and was fairly recently held by a Democrat, it is a tossup.
24th District: Dan Innis
Here we find a Rockingham County district that is the only GOP-held seat with an incumbent that Hillary Clinton won. SD-24 has an R+2 PVI and it’s a Romney/Clinton district, though both elections were very narrow. In 2016, this seat was open, with Innis snaring it by 4 points over Tom Sherman, a gastroenterologist. Now, Sherman is back for a rematch, raising a significant amount of money and hoping a better national environment will put him over the top. I’m not sure it will, but this is going to be a tight race, so I chalk it up as a tossup.
Lean R: 6, 23
6th District: James Gray
Another open seat win, Republican James Gray moved up from State Rep. to State Senator in 2016 by winning this district 55-45. Now he’s faced with the task of defending it against former State Rep. Anne C. Grassie. Not a lot of money has been raised on either side yet, so it’s hard to get a great sense of what’s going on in this race. While the national environment should eat into Gray’s margins, this is an R+7 district at the presidential level, so I make Gray a favorite entering November.
23rd District: Bill Gannon
SD-23 was open in 2016 and was won by Bill Gannon rather comfortably, as the Republican took it home by a 57-43 margin. That was significantly better than Trump’s 51-44 margin, but he definitely got a lift from a strong Republican environment in this Rockingham County seat. In 2018 he will have to face very different political winds than what he had last time around. He’s also staring down a different opponent, Jon Morgan, who used to work at the Department of Defense. Morgan has raised a lot of money for this race and so I expect him to give Gannon a tough fight. But in an R+4 seat, the incumbent starts out as a favorite.
Likely R: 11, 17
11th District: Gary Daniels
Gary Daniels is in his second term representing SD-11 in the New Hampshire Senate. He won his first election in 2014 over Roger Tilton, and then he beat Tilton again in 2016, that time by a 57-43 margin. Tilton is back for a third swing, but he has to win the primary first. His primary opponent is Shannon Chandley, a State Rep. who has raised quite a bit of money and at this point, I have to think she’s probably the favorite to get the nomination. In a showdown with Daniels, I’d make the incumbent a clear favorite and it is an R+3 district, but with how swingy the chamber is, it wouldn’t shock me if this seat flipped.
17th District: John Reagan
Last but not least we have SD-17, a district spread between three counties: Merrimack, Rockingham, and Strafford. It’s a tough R+6 district with a multi-term incumbent, but Reagan has run some closer races before. In 2012, he won by only 6 points and this was only a Romney +1 district, so it’s not totally off the board. Democrats have Christopher Roundy in the race and he needs to raise more money if he wants this district to be anything other than Likely R.
The Path to a Democratic Majority
Since Republicans hold a 14-10 edge, Democrats need to flip 3 seats to get the majority outright. Given that this chamber is very volatile to national swings, that is very doable. It’s pretty much just a matter of flipping 3 out of the 6 tossups. Some chambers have convoluted paths to a majority, this one is as simple as it comes.
The Bottom Line
I’m inclined to think Democrats are tiny favorites entering the fall, but it’s overall a tossup. Many of these races will be decided by small margins and given how small these districts are, that often means raw margins of only a few hundred votes that could decide control of this chamber.
Chamber Rating: Tossup
Estimate if election were held today: D+1 to D+6