Old West legendary gunfighter Wild Bill Hickock was murdered (shot in the back of the head) while playing poker. The game was five card stud and legend has it that when his hand was picked up off the floor he’d been holding “two-pair” — a pair of aces and a pair of eights. with the hole card being ignored in the telling although some have said it was the Queen of Hearts. The important part of the legend that would grow in the 20th century was that “Aces & Eights” were the infamous “Dead Man’s Hand. Anyone who’s played regular poker knows the reference and where it comes from.
We’ve long known Donald Trump was facing a world of hurt, with plea deals already mounting amongst folks who can tell things he’d rather Mueller not know. Still, the really big fish have until now been theoretical problems. I for one think in the end Jared Kushner will cut a deal and throw the Trump family under the bus — if it isn’t too late to do so. However on the priority list of “high value targets” he’s likely #2 behind only Trump himself so unless he get’s “proactive” and fast cutting himself a deal he’ll remain one of the big prizes — that will be delivered up to Mueller by others.
But the two biggest potential problems for Trump have been (correctly I believe) have been thought to be Paul Manafort and Michael Cohen. In different ways each has some really serious dirt on Trump to deal and unlike Fredo Don Jr. or Kushner they aren’t part of Trump’s family. The family Trump is the pot of (fake) gold at the end of the rainbow — the actual ultimate targets. Either Manafort or Cohen could likely be the crucial link that provides evidence that would result in criminal convictions for Trump and his (crime) family.
Today was a very, very “bigly” bad day for Trump. Aces & Eights. The shit has gotten really real.
The “Aces” in my version of this are the Mueller Investigation and the Southern District of New York which is routinely referred to as “the Sovereign SDNY.” The are an operation unto themselves and part of Mueller’s allowing them to take over parts of the investigation was a way of making it a lot tougher for Trump to shut the whole thing down. But Mueller’s people have been hard at work getting plea deals and indictments. So far only one person has gone to jail, and only for 30 days. That’s about to change. People have wondered why Manafort didn’t cut a deal. Some think it’s because he’s scared of Putin but I believe it’s more because he has been so corrupt for so long, he’s gotten away with so much over the decades in his mind he just couldn’t accept he would actually be held accountable. But EIGHT times he heard the word guilty this afternoon. Worse, there were three types of charges among the eighteen for which he was on trial and prosecutors won convictions in all three categories on at least one charge. The eight guilty counts btw were in spite of a Judge who repeatedly trashed the prosecution (and their case) in front of the jury, allowed the defense to repeatedly violate a ruling (about what the defense could bring up) during closing arguments and who refused to allow prosecutors to “publish” exhibits (let the jury see them) during the trial making it quite difficult to match up exhibits during deliberations to specific charges & witness testimony. White collar cases are complicated enough and the Judge made things a lot more confusing for the jury which likely accounts for their being unable to reach verdicts on so many charges. With all that going for him Manafort still heard GUILTY over and over today. The long nights in jail are going to start seeming a lot longer starting tonight. A lot longer. If his lawyers didn’t already tell him during “verdict watch” they will in the days ahead that they won’t be so lucky moving forward with a Judge. DC will be a whole different animal to confront and if the prosecution really wants to put the screws to Manafort they can try him again on the “hung” charges. Oh, btw Gates will surely have (with prosecutor’s help) learned something from his less than stellar performance on the stand in the just concluded trial. Including a warning from prosecutors to be straight and not play games on the stand or they will mention his reticence/attitude when it’s time for his sentencing.
At the very same time that was playing out (verdicts being read) in Virginia, up in NYC Trump’s longtime (sort of) attorney and not all that great “fixer” was pleading guilty in federal court to EIGHT charges — two of which go straight to the Trump campaign and Trump himself. Like Manafort, Cohen is now guilty of EIGHT federal criminal offenses. Federal practice is not to name names except when a person is charged/convicted but clearly Trump is the “Candidate” referenced in counts 7 & 8. IOW Trump is now an unindicted co-conspirator.
Two “Aces” (Team Mueller and SDNY), and two “Eights” (the number of criminal convictions both Manafort and Cohen now have) and the other card? As I noted earlier the “hole card” was the Queen of Hearts. Or perhaps in this case “Hearts.” Stormy Daniels. Karen McDougal. Even Melania Trump perhaps if she (as I think she will do after the election) divorces Trump? Take your pick. Or maybe even Omarosa, or one of the myriad of women besides Daniles or McDougal who have accused Trump of sexual misconduct and worse. Michael Avenatti popped back up on TV today and makes it clear he is moving ahead with forcing Daniel’s civil case and deposing (under oath) Trump. Popcorn time.
Today someone likely able to provide serious evidence against Trump flipped, and another was convicted and faces years in prison AND is about to go on trial in DC where he won’t be as lucky when it comes to the Judge trying the case. He’s going to die in prison if he doesn’t flip, and he can’t continue paying millions in legal fees every month.
IOW Trump had himself a bad day. A day where proverbially speaking he was dealt a legal version of the infamous “Dead Man’s Hand.”
It won’t be the instant death of a bullet in the back of the head as happened to Wild Bill Hickock but will I believe turn out (legally speaking) to be just as deadly.