Hi everyone! Sorry for taking 5 months to post another edition of #RbPi.
#RbPi (#RESIST-by-Plugging-in) diaries expand awareness that:
- When the government is run by oil interests and global-warming deniers, switching to a Plug-in vehicle (a.k.a. electric car or EV) becomes a direct, effective act of #Resistance.
- On the merits, EVs are viable and increasingly attractive in many segments of the US new and used auto market.
If you are serious about resisting, have a car, and you haven’t plugged in yet, I hope to help you and your community move ahead in the inevitable path to electrification, sooner rather than later. Because #Resist.
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To be honest, it felt very wrong to chirp here about the EV revolution, while in Gaza unarmed demonstrators were being mowed down by soldiers like I used to be, with the entire Western world caring approximately zero minus about this atrocity it's enabling, and with me too paralyzed to write anything about Israel-Palestine for a long time.
Well now I wrote something, will likely write more, and feel a bit more entitled to write about EVs again. And I should do EVs, because I know I've been making a difference on that, while on I-P I don't feel I've made any difference in years.
That aside, I want to stay in this post at a bird's eye level view, away from recent news tidbits, and address the question why EV adoption hasn't yet skyrocketed and invaded the mainstream - outside of a few enclaves (Norway, Iceland, Major Chinese cities, US West Coast cities).
I am fairly optimistic it will happen sooner or later, partly because West Coast cities set global consumer trends, and Chinese cities set global industrial production trends - and partly because most of the world's leading economies now take climate change very seriously. Don't get me wrong: EV sales *are* increasing rather fast (globally through July, almost +70% over 2017) . But the growth pattern in the US has become very odd and potentially problematic (see below). And believe it or not, we need EV adoption to accelerate even faster, and to start toppling the oil economy so that we won’t have to deal with nonsense like Keystone XL.
Why isn't it happening sooner?
There is not one single reason, of course. But as the diary title states, I think the main reason has become awareness. Mostly consumer awareness.
We can exempt the less-wealthy world for now. In fact, one not-wealthy country, Ukraine, will be our hook into the story. For two years running, Ukraine made my annual Top 10 EV countries list. The vast majority of Ukraine's EVs are used short-range BEVs imported from the US, most of them Nissan Leafs.
Ukraine's feat has been made possible only due to the Western consumer's general EV cluelessness. There are many millions of City Cars in the US. The owners of most don't think of them as "city cars", but that's how they use them. The vast majority of Americans live in cities and suburbs. There are >50 million urban/suburban multi-driver family households, and the vast majority of them are also multi-car.
Now, I’m already envisioning comments like “I only use bicycles”, or “We’re too poor to own a car”, or “We’re out in the boonies, why are you wasting my time?”. Well, look around you and you’ll likely find a friend or relative or neighbor who meets the definition, because this is the majority.
In such households, at least one of these cars is almost exclusively dedicated to city driving (in the broad sense, that includes short-to-medium commute drives regardless of urbanicity). What kind of EVs have been available for such households.
The 2011-2012 Nissan Leaf was a relatively expensive technological unknown. Indeed, its encounter with American reality revealed that its average range is only 73 miles (rather than the advertised 100), and that its battery wilts in hot climates. So awareness or not, consumer caution was well justified. However, the 2013 model came out with better range, gradually improving battery life, and a highly affordable lease system that allowed the American middle class to have a risk-free taste of the EV flavor, if it so chooses. By 2014 and 2015, the early battery issues had greatly diminished. In 2016 the Leaf finally crossed the real-life 100-mile threshold, and started being offered with an 8-year, 100k mile battery warranty. In short, we have an initially experimental product rapidly acquiring better and better consumer value.
Let's get back to those consumers, focusing on American urban-suburban multi-car households, those who have at least one City Car in all but name. A BEV like the Nissan Leaf, even a used version of the early ones with ~60 miles average range, can likely function perfectly well as those households' City Car. Even after excluding households with no regular access to charging, there are millions of American City Cars that could be replaced by a short-range EV tomorrow.
Leaf sales peaked in the US in 2014 at 30k cars/year (which was the US record for any EV, until the Tesla Model 3 shattered it this year). By 2015 US demand started choking. Some blamed it on the promised 2016 upgrade (the oft-mentioned Osborne effect??). But when the 2016 model rolled around in late 2015, demand slowed even further, despite the fact that at the time there was still no comparable competition to the Leaf. Now it's 2018, the Leaf is offered with a 151-mile range and a new mainstream look - and sales are even worse. Used Leafs are selling well and at great prices - but only after a good number of them are shipped offshore which prevents cratering. Our own first Leaf was shipped in 2014 following our lease return, all the way to Norway. We know because it sent us a selfie from the road.
Part of the story in 2015-2016 was falling gas prices. But that still doesn't explain why over 99% of City Car owners never seriously considered an EV, Leaf or otherwise. I took the Leaf just as an example. For people requiring frequent long-range drives, The Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid has been on the market since 2011, proved to be a great car by 2012, and was available via affordable leases (or as an affordable used car) since 2013. For people with more mainstream design tastes, there are electric versions of Ford Focus, Kia Soul, and the VW Golf, all of them affordably available new and used nationwide. And there are now countless affordable PHEVs.
And don't get me started on the Chevy Bolt, nearly 2 years after its launch still the best midmarket BEV you can find. Bolt sales in the US are dramatically down (they are in high demand in Korea though).
Most dealers are clueless and/or hostile regarding EVs. That has been proven many times over, e.g., via this hilarious "mystery buyer" study which took place in Scandinavia, mostly in EV-friendly countries. One can only imagine what behavior a similar study would reveal in the US. But why are American car consumers not demanding EVs from dealers? It's not like American consumers are shy about demanding a product when they really want it.
If I was less charitable I'd say it's all about hype and cool, or lack thereof. In the US, Tesla owns EV cool. Tesla is cool, and all other EVs are ugly eat-your-veggies golf carts. July 2018 shattered the all-time monthly EV sales record in the US. But EVs not named Tesla were actually down collectively, year-over-year.
No, I *am* charitable. The Cool Factor is a multiplier, but it's not core. At core is lack of awareness. Any EV driver in the US and elsewhere, has funny stories about the questions and statements they hear about EVs. They've been on the mass market almost a decade, and people are still clueless about nearly all aspects of EVs.
People are also clueless, or not honest with themselves, about what the cars they drive actually do for a living. If you and your loved one have two cars, how often do both of them need to drive over 50 miles straight on the same day? Over 100 miles? I'm sure some readers would answer "every day". But this misses the point that millions of American drivers would answer "almost never". And with today's online car/ride sharing tools, do you really need your vehicle to meet that rare need, or would a temporary solution be more cost-effective?
And now, as the Mis-Administration officially proclaims "saving oil is not a national priority anymore", are you willing to seriously examine those questions, or to help a friend or relative for whom these questions are relevant? Or both?
If not, what are you waiting for?
PS: whether the Mis-Administration likes it or not, at the moment each new EV sold in the US takes a crisp $7,500 directly out of its grubby, corrupt, Humanity-hating, ICE-loving hands, and into the pockets of the buyers (or to the leasing companies, which nowadays pass most/all of the savings to the buyer). An modest but sweet opportunity to stick into directly into the eye of Drumpf, Wheeler et al. What are you waiting for now?