Campaign Action
The nation as a whole really doesn't want Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court. In three national polls released this week, he was underwater, the most unpopular nominee since nominee popularity has been polled. NBC finds 38 percent opposed, Reuters 36 percent, and Gallup 42 percent. He's really unpopular. But he's even more unpopular in Maine and Alaska, where the nominally undecided Republicans Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski have to think about re-election.
A Civiqs poll in Maine finds that 56 percent of registered voters opposed Kavanaugh's confirmation, including 57 percent of Independents. Collins's key support, women, oppose him by a 39 point margin, 67 percent oppose to 28 percent support.
When asked to choose what was more important—stopping Kavanaugh or re-electing Susan Collins—stopping Kavanaugh beat keeping Collins more than a 2-1 margin, 52 percent to 25 percent. Collins has also lost her claim to be an independent voice for Maine, with 48 percent of Mainers "believe that Senator Susan Collins answers more to Republican leaders like Donald Trump and Mitch McConnell, than she does to Maine voters." Just 32 percent say she's on the side of Maine. And while Collins likes to keep saying that Kavanaugh promised to her that he believes Roe v. Wade is settled law, 57 percent of Mainers aren't buying it and believe he'd vote to overturn it if given the opportunity.
So, that's Collins, out of step with her constituency. Let's turn to Alaska, where a PPP poll also finds that keeping Kavanaugh off the Supreme Court is more important to voters, by a 2-1 margin, than re-electing Sen. Lisa Murwowski. Stopping Kavanaugh is more important to 48 percent of voters than re-electing Murkowski at 24 percent. "This finding is consistent across all party lines," the polling memo points out, "with a majority of Democrats (65%), and a plurality of Republicans (39%) and independents (47%) saying it is more important to stop Trump’s nominee from being confirmed." Even Republicans in Alaska don't want him!
It's politically safe, ultimately, for Murkowski to oppose this nomination. There's some hints that she's preparing to do just that, lining up backing and arguments to support her. In contrast, it's getting more politically unsafe every day for Collins to support Kavanaugh, as she's giving every appearance of intending.