If one somehow ignored ideology, there are some odd conclusions from this Emerson poll. I’d like to chalk it up to methodology and design, but I’m posting this to see what the DK community thinks.
Then again, there are odd general conclusions:
In a head to head ballot test, Joe Biden appears the strongest opponent against Trump of the major Democratic candidates with a 53% to 47% advantage. This result is down 4 points from Emerson’s March poll, where Biden led Trump 55% to 45%. This general tightening is seen in the other head-to heads against other potential opponents: (n=914, +/-3.2%)
- Biden 53%, Trump 47%
- Sanders 51%, Trump 48%
- O’Rourke 51%, Trump 49%
- Harris 50%, Trump 50%
- Buttigieg 49%, Trump 51%
- Warren 48%, Trump 52%
emersonpolling.reportablenews.com/...
Fortunately it’s still early as the bi-weekly DK polls indicate, but there are some strange observations in the Emerson poll.
for example:
- More than one-in-four of Bernie supporters say they would rather vote for Donald Trump’s second term instead of voting for Elizabeth Warren.
- Because nearly 30% of those who currently support Bernie say they voted for Trump or a third-party candidate in 2016, this statistic could support the claim that Bernie has crossover appeal and can expand on what Hillary was able to do in 2016
No. 4: Only 42% of those who voted for Bernie in the 2016 Primary selected him as their top choice in the 2020 Primary.
Many assume that Bernie’s supporters from 2016 are a deeply loyal group, but it would appear that with more alternatives in 2020 (beyond Hillary Clinton) former Bernie voters have new top choices. For example, of Bernie’s 2016 supporters, 15.7% now selected Beto O’Rourke as their top choice, 11.7 % selected Joe Biden, 7.9% selected Pete Buttigieg and 6% selected Kamala Harris.
No. 3: 26% of current Bernie Sanders supporters said that they would rather vote for President Donald Trump over Senator Elizabeth Warren, if that were the eventual 2020 matchup.
While many have assumed that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren appeal to a similar progressive voter, many apparent Bernie supporters would seem to disagree. More than one-in-four of them say they would rather vote for Donald Trump’s second term instead of voting for Elizabeth Warren. In the overall head-to-head between Warren and Trump, voters suggest that they would prefer Trump 52% to Warren 48%.
No. 2: While 100% of Buttigieg’s supporters said they would support Bernie against Trump (if that were the General Election matchup), only 79% of Bernie’s supporters said they would vote for Buttigieg over Trump in a General Election.
[...]
No. 1: Only 51% of current Bernie supporters actually voted in the 2016 General Election for the Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton – 7% voted for Trump, 23% voted for a third-party candidate, and 19% did not vote.
This result is the most difficult to interpret. Because nearly 30% of those who currently support Bernie say they voted for Trump or a third-party candidate in 2016, this statistic could support the claim that Bernie has crossover appeal and can expand on what Hillary was able to do in 2016. If 19% of non-voters now say that they would go to the polls for Bernie, it would support the narrative that Bernie can motivate many more people to go out and vote for a Democrat in 2020. If we take these potential voters at their word, it would appear to be a good sign for Bernie.
www.forbes.com/...