Quinnipiac released a poll today that has contains some very confounding insights into the psyche of the American people.
First, Americans are split down the middle, 46/46, on whether Trump committed a crime while in office:
On the other hand, Americans are far more convinced that Trump committed crimes before becoming president, with 57% thinking that:
Furthermore, 54% of Americans believe Trump tried to obstruct the Mueller investigation:
Considering, all of that, you’d think the American people would at least be somewhat in favor of impeachment, or at least close to it. But instead...
That’s right, an overwhelming 66% of Americans oppose impeachment. Basically, the American people think Trump obstructed justice, most think Trump is a crook, yet they don’t want to impeach him.
A part of it clearly is tribalism, with 72% of Whites opposing impeachment. Surprisingly though, Non-college Whites are less opposed to impeachment than college-educated Whites. Which sort of puts into question the notion popular among some Democratic circles that college-educated Whites will be a reliable Democratic constituency going forward.
But at least with regard to this poll, it’s not just tribalism. 61% of women oppose impeachment, 57% of Latinos oppose impeachment, 59% of people between 18-34. The only groups in favor of impeachment are Democrats and Blacks, but even then the numbers are not exactly overwhelming — Dems support impeachment 56/38, and Blacks support 57/38.
Looking at this, it seems as if cynicism is an even greater factor than even tribalism. The American people, including significant numbers of people who are reliable Democratic voters, seem to be fine with having a crook as president. Why that’s case, I can only guess. My view is that it’s the result of the rich and powerful getting away with stuff for so long, and trust in government has plummeted so low, that people have just come to accept it as just the way things are.
If there’s any consolation to be had from this poll, it’s that Americans at least seem more open toward commencing investigations to determine whether or not to bring impeachment charges:
Even then, 51% still oppose such investigations. But I will take some solace in the fact the Democratic constituencies are in favor of investigations, with 52% of women, 51% of people aged 18-34, 57% of Latinos, and 77% of Blacks who support it. Also, independents and college educated Whites seem considerably more inclined toward investigations to determine impeachment than actually commencing impeachment itself.
Still, this poll is consistent with the Washington Post poll last week that showed that while a plurality, 47%, of Americans believed Trump obstructed justice, just 37% believed he should be impeached. Both polls show that Americans think Trump is a crook but they don’t want him impeached.
Cynicism beyond anything else is what causes democracies to die. And right now the American public is deeply infected with cynicism.