Well the seating chart is out for the Debates.
Night one, June 26, will be laid out right to left: de Blasio, Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH), HUD Secretary Julián Castro, Sen. Cory Booker (D-NJ), Warren, O’Rourke, Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI), Washington Gov. Jay Inslee and Delaney.
Night two will feature, from left to right: Williamson, former Colorado John Hickenlooper, entrepreneur Andrew Yang, South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg, Biden, Sanders, Sen. Kamala Harris (D-CA), Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Swalwell.
Who looks like America. Diversity will be in almost every shot. The opening wide shot of the first night will be powerful. Women, Youth and Minorites front and center with the older white males on the outside. Night two will pretty much put the older white males in the center and that is fine as a total balance.
We have never seen anything like this before. I don’t think we have really absorbed just how different this will be. We all have been socialized and it is very difficult to overcome that. Having three women on the stage at the same time each night will have a profound effect on the interplay. Democrats in early debates tend to want to play nice, this will be dramatically reinforced because of their presence. There will be differences and contention but tempered and because of that it will reflect very well on the party as a whole.
Night one is very nerd heavy and that will inform night two. Out of the two nights will be a broad agreement on goals if not on the path to them. This will allow the Democrats up and down the ballots to run over the summer on a generally forward looking optimistic view. This is enhanced because most of the major candidates have basically settled on the impeachment question as a yes inquiries need to go forward and the pivot to election security or some other connected policy. Putting it in the by the way, part of the job and not central.
I may be a bit optimistic but I also believe it will defuse a lot of the socialism attacks on the policies and politicians. People don’t think of Medicare as socialism for example, and having various buy in options offered make Medicare for all just one endo of a broad spectrum.
I also don’t think this will allow for any dramatic break out moments. Positionally and Timing wise Beto is the big loser. He is on stage between two wonks from the left and more moderate wings of the party, sharing the night with a fellow Texan, with polls coming out that show Texas in play without him. He will have to be very careful. He is the most wounded one and most likely will take most of the gentle incoming as those below him want to knock him off. I can just see Klobuchar countering the all counties campaign line with “I do that every year and win most of them”.
Nobody is really going after Warren yet as they are all in different lanes then she is.
Harris appears to be the big visual and positional winner. Between Sanders and Gillibrand she appears to be on the progressive side and visually dilutes both of their rationales. With Sanders and Biden next to each other the expectation will be a head to head. Both of them will avoid that.