I happen to absolutely agree with Speaker Nancy Pelosi that the real goal needs to be getting Donald John Trump sent to prison for his actions in the White House, and that Impeachment just may be the worst obstacle to achieving that goal.
I agree not because I’m a huge fan of Mrs. Pelosi, but because I wrote a long form FP Diary on exactly that subject over a month ago: Impeachment just might be too good for Trump and Co, they need to go to Jail.
This will be a cliff notes version of that argument, which was extensive.
Trump’s path to prison requires that he lose the election in 2020 and William Barr is replaced by any one of the 900 former members of the Justice Department who have signed a letter indicating the Trump should be prosecuted for obstruction of justice.
Every indication is that the Senate won't even take articles of Impeachment against Trump seriously so there is literally no chance of his removal.
“Why on earth would we give a platform to something that I judge as a purely political exercise?” said Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC).
“We have to perform our constitutional duty,” he added, “but if people think that we’re going to try and create a theater that could give you the perception that this is a matter that rises to the level of Watergate, that’s nonsense.”
Assuming the House approves articles of Impeachment — and it’s not even clear that will happen yet with only about 60 Dem members of the House who support an Impeachment Inquiry — they won't go anywhere in the Senate and Trump won't be removed creating the likelihood that he’ll gain the type of 10 point approval bump that Bill Clinton received when he was Impeached in 1998. And even if he doesn't get a great big bump by this “partisan attack”, Trump will certainly take a Huuge victory lap on a failed removal vote and continue to market his “Witch-Hunt", "Attempted Coup” delusions.
It might even help him get re-elected and if that happens the OLC rules preventing his prosecution will keep him safe from obstruction charges until after the five-year statute on limitations have run their course.
That is all kinds of bad. It can’t be allowed to happen.
Having only Rep. Justin Amash in support on an Impeachment vote simply isn't good enough to call this "bipartisan" when removal will require 17-20 Republican Senators. We don't need all the votes up front, but having the indicator that we can get just one — and right now we don’t even have Mitt Romney — would show a little daylight for avoiding a total failure.
Even under the extreme case that the Senate actually votes to remove Trump, the very next action will be that he’ll receive a pardon from President Pence and get away scott free.
Both of those scenarios are unacceptable. A clear concise signal that the rule of law still exists in the country needs to be made.
For those people who say that Congress should at least get on with hearings anyway, they have essentially already started but Trump's stonewalling of all subpeonas and document requests have bogged everything down in court. So far Congress has been winning at the district court on the subpoenas for Trump’s financials and bank records and the appeals have been fast tracked. I expect the appeals will all support Congress and that the SCOTUS will probably decline to take up the cases letting the appellate decision stand because it's not anywhere near to a close call. Best case scenario is all of that will probably take a few more months if they remain on fast track.
Judiciary Chairman Nadler has been pushing behind the scenes to officially call their current inquiry "Impeachment" because he feels it will give more weight and urgency to the court cases, and it possibly might, but I think it’s important for Congress to establish case law that supports their essential power to do oversight without having to begin an Impeachment inquiry first so that future White Houses will already know that similar stalling tactics like this are fruitless.
What matters is doing the inquiry, getting the documents and the testimony of Mueller, McGahn, Mnuchin, Hope Hicks and others whom the White House has blocked access to and laying out the case clearly to the American people and defeating the bullshit spin job that nearly all the GOP from Trump to Bill Barr have used to gaslight the American public. This won’t be easy, but it’s what the House needs to be focused on.
Pelosi is willing to wait for the courts to solve the subpoena issue, Nadler is getting impatient and that's understandable — but slowly changing public sentiment and guaranteeing that Trump loses in 2020 is going to require methodical patience IMO. He think Democrats will grow tired and give up, or that they’ll tear themselves apart with impatience and recriminations.
We can’t fall for that this time, not like when we split apart over Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton and let Trump slide into office in the first place.
If we want a loud Congressional condemnation of Trump’s crimes and malfeasance there is an alternative to Impeachment. That statement can be made with a Censure vote if we want to make a large basically empty symbolic gesture that also probably won't get through the Senate, but also won't grant Trump a victory lap during the election. I think there's even a small chance that once the case is laid out clearly that a Censure vote might make it to 51 votes in the Senate because McConnell might consider it a large step up from having a removal vote, but that’s only possible if the House is able to make the case, and they can't even begin that — no matter what it’s called — until the courts break through the current subpeona logjam.
I think Nadler is simply trying to speed up that process and that's fine, but it isn’t looking far down the field for a time when we have to deal with something like this again. I think it's critical that it's made crystal clear to any future White House resident that there will be consequences for committing crimes under color of Presidential authority. It has to be totally unambiguous, and beyond all doubt tha they will pay. a. price. for their actions.
Pelosi is playing the long game, trying to make sure that Trump has no escape, no exit ramp, that he will be held accountable for him crimes.
That he goes to jail.
I'm fine with avoiding the unforced error of a failed removal in the Senate if his defeat in 2020 and prosecution in 2021 is the result.