I’m in full pundit mode today and this will be all process. This will lay out her possible path to the nomination. As it sits today I see five candidates with a chance at the nomination. In order Biden, Sanders, Klobuchar, Warren, and Bloomberg. Buttigieg is not on the list because to be blunt he will never be able to capture enough of the AA community to matter, the press has just been to relentless.
To understand Amy’s chances you need to understand that she always knew that her path was through Iowa and there was no path if she didn’t survive that. She has done enough work to capitalize on a good showing there but has kept her focus on Iowa. Until very recently the Minnesota caucuses have been the be all and end all of campaigning for Minnesota candidates, Amy’s team have caucus in their blood in a way no other campaign can. She also has deep connections to Iowa and the party structure there. She has been doing campaigning and fundraising for the party for over a decade. Also from her position on the AG and Commerce committees she has been to a huge amount of Farm Bureau and Chamber of Commerce events in the state.
Amy’s chances also depend on understanding the caucus. There will be close to 1700 precinct events on Tuesday. Each will be an independent event. With this number of candidates clustered around the 15% threshold in most of those 1700 no more then one or two candidates are likely to clear that in the first round. Despite what you may have heard that doesn’t mean that those who didn’t make it are out, So lets say we had a caucus that exactly matches the last Seltzer poll where Bernie gets 20% and Warren 17%, Buttigieg 16% Biden 15%. Now that is 68% leaving 32% so it is possible for another candidate that did not cross 15% to end up with 32% and “win” in the second round. The other thing to understand in the Caucus is that motivations are not straight forward. While not the majority a significant number of participants will deny a candidate that they may support later just because they do not want to harm their favorite. This is more true in Iowa then elsewhere because they see themselves as winnowing the field. One reason we see some surprising results from there.
So why do I think Klobuchar’s chances are better then the other pundits think?
The Des Moines Register poll didn’t tell us as much as we would like but one thing it did tell us is that Lanes are alive and well. In one lane Buttigieg has fallen and in the other Sanders has risen. But what is as interesting and important is that nobody else suffered or benefitted. When you consider that first choice has hardly solidified at all, the race is more fluid at this time then any I can remember. There is just way to much I like X but can they beat Trump. So considering lanes I give Klobuchar a slightly better chance then Warren because Sanders is much more likely to consolidate his lane faster then Biden his. Sanders just has a more solid base and consistent persona.
In the Progressive Lane (for lack of a better term) Sanders is in a much better position to gain from the Ideological component of Warren’s support then Warren is from Sanders. So all of those precincts that Warren fails to get the 15% Bernie will benefit. When you add the majority of the Yang Gang to his totals he is probably approaching 30% and that is in this environment a clear Iowa win. With the Bernie rising polls and stories his supporters are on a high going in. Warren is in the uncomfortable position of not really being able to go after Sanders and not hurt herself and anyone else going after him will only help his case with those inclined towards him.
In the moderate lane the dynamics are quite different. First Biden’s Iowa support is half of his national. Now Iowa and Iowa caucus goers are a unique set of voters, that actually implies a weakness not apparent. A major part of his rational is electable and while Iowa is not representative of the diversity of the nation it is an important indicator of outside of the base support. Biden is not showing that. With Buttigieg’s slide without Biden gaining there must be some deep seeded doubts about the entire electability argument. This is playing out in the most campaigned saturated environment in the country right now. He is sure to take lots of hits in the coming days. Iraq war and all. Every doubt people have about him will be aired from all sides. That when Bloomberg is airing millions of Dollars worth of Ads reminding everyone that he is in the Race because he didn’t think Biden could seal the deal. Now if Buttigieg has peaked to early as it looks like and he continues to decline then with the Biden doubts and the blush off of Pete a turn to a familiar neighbor is entirely in the cards. When you look at it only Amy is in a position to have a surprising outcome at this point. Even a third place finish for her will look massive.
I’ll come back after the Debate to tell you if any of that is probable, but right now consider it possible.
Remembering that I’m doing this from her perspective what would a good finish for her do for her overall chances? Assuming that she either finishes ahead of Biden for second or right behind him for third on To New Hampshire. First the narrative and the cash, both will be extremely positive for her. The New Hampshire debate will then probably be mostly about her. The cast of characters is likely to be the same so both Warren and Buttigieg would have a great incentive, Bernie not so much and Biden would be constrained because most of what he could go after could really rebound on him. But what would be apparent is she is top tier. Something people miss with Klobuchar is she is good in defense, it isn’t clear because she has avoided most incoming. It will be her first real chance to show how she will handle the incoming that Trump will provide. Seeing that is different then talking about it and having watched her for some time it will be a telling moment. Here also age and sex start to play a bigger role. Both for and against her. But one thing she and to an extent Warren and Harris have been pointing out is that Trump doesn’t handle strong women well. While many after Hillary don’t think a woman can beat Trump and that has played out. There are probably as many who see the opposite and find it a bit more then condescending that the path to a woman as president come through a VP pick. That goes to the core of the Biden voter.
Going into Nevada as the daughter of a Union household as the electable younger woman is a state with two women Senators and something of a Harry Reid acolyte, is not a bad position. Quite frankly after Nevada I expect the moderate lane to collapse into her and Bloomberg. Quite frankly I never saw Biden’s support lasting once there was a clear alternative in his lane. If this turns into a Hillary without the Emails race then I’m betting on Klobuchar.
This is the pivotal week of the election. It either remains very static or things shift bigly.