A few years ago, I found Prius or Pickup in an airport book stand. What a find! Marc Hetherington’s and Jonathan Weiler’s work is made for electability debates. And it can really inform campaign strategy. Both these reasons have had me reflecting upon this book recently.
Found here: www.amazon.com/…
or here: books.apple.com/…
The book uses four apolitical questions with a choice of answers to determine one’s mindset. The answer options are both desirable attributes though one must choose which is more appealing. Having all eight would be great but you only get four. Once binned by mindset, the book looks at how each bin or flavor or people sees the world and interacts within it. This is done for the three peoples at large, there may be instances of exception with persons inside each people. The book notes that identity politics, particularly race, creates such an exception and shows a history as to why. This history, however, can recede into the past giving us a warning that mindsets in non-whites could come to the fore though also shows roadblocks in a certain party achieving such. Seems to be a case of short term strategy beating long term viability. For the other party, the book also has significant impact as humans tend to have a consistent breakdown into the three peoples, no matter their race or ancestral origin. If you want to win the masses, or even a sufficient percentage of the masses as to gain political power, you need to know how the masses are actually constituted.
The Open tend to be more liberal, the Closed more conservative. The Mixed go to the middle though slightly offset right. Note, the authors refer to the Open as “Fluid” and to the Closed as “Fixed.”
The Open tend to like more total information and to see all angles before deciding, the Open are more receptive to contravening information and adjusting course. This tends to slow the speed of action, which situation dependent, can be good or bad. They are understanding oriented.
Once the Closed believe they’ve seen sufficient information, they like to make decisions and move onto the next issue. This can be an enabling characteristic both in our modern times of information overload and in geopolitical settings where information is often lacking or incomplete as in a fog of war. Adjusting course, however, is a little more difficult. They are action oriented.
Times of stress push the Mixed to be more like the Closed, outright fear pushes even the Open rightward. Hence we should be vigilant to the tactic of political machinations for fear mongering.
Now to the piece regarding electability. Percentages within populations tend to break down as:
16% are Closed
26% are Mixed leaning Closed
26% are Mixed with no bias
19% are Mixed leaning Open
13% are Open
While considering nothing about the correctness of policy and everything about electoral success, think about this: 68% are either in the Closed people or in the Mixed leaning Closed or Unbiased subsets. As the Mixed will favor policy slightly right of center, and a majority of the total electorate are in the Mixed or further right, Progressives can’t win the masses except through the short term near sighted exclusionary tactics of Republicans. As Republicans use these tactics for geographical advantage, Progressives can’t adequately counter in the Electoral College or Senatorial quests. Democrats have less room for error, must be more savvy, and need more reach across the spectrum. They need broad appeal. They need to avoid fear inducing speech and issues. They probably shouldn’t introduce identity politics and wedge concerns but should be ready with robust defenses and counterattacks in these areas. They need to appear decisive. They need to show they understand problems, have answers, and are moving on to the next problem. While many claim emotional appeal drives campaigns, having answers drives peace of mind, and peace of mind is an emotion.
Implications for Democrats:
1. Bernie Sanders is not a good candidate; supporting him in the primaries may waste opportunity in the general election.
1a. Even were a mass anti-Trump wave to materialize enabling a Bernie victory, Bernie would hurt down ballot candidates furthering Washington gridlock.
1b. Bernie’s style infuses excitement in his supporters but incites fear in others; fear drives people rightward.
2. Centrist candidates do have a claim towards electability.
3. While Elizabeth Warren is nearly as Progressive as Bernie hence favorable to the Open, and one would think, scary to the Mixed and the Closed, her robust policy positions show a tendency for strong decision making while moving to the next item, a characteristic appealing to the Closed and the Mixed. Hers is a calming demeanor reducing fear enabling leftward exploration.
Now to the Four Questions: Which one you think is more important for a child to have:
1. (A) Independence, or (B) Respect for elders
2. (A) Obedience, or (B) Self-reliance
3. (A) Curiosity, or (B) Good manners
4. (A) Being considerate, or (B) Being well behaved
Answer set ABAA puts one in the Open people
Answer set BABB puts one in the Closed people
All other answer sets put one in the Mixed people