SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults statewide 10/08/2020 through 10/11/2020.
Senior citizens, who typically have more traditional views of marriage and fidelity, are turned-off by the salacious details. In September, Cunningham had led by 8 among voters age 65+ but now trails Tills by 6, a 14-point GOP swing .
But among all voters, especially younger voters , it is not an affair to remember.Men and women react to the dalliance differently. Among all men , there is a 13-point month-on-month move to Cunningham. Among all women , who are often the jilted when a man breaks his marital vows, there is a 7-point shift to Tillis. Last month, 13% of women were undecided between Cunningham and Tillis; all of those undecided voters have picked the incumbent Republican. In greater Raleigh, Cunningham had led by 19 points, today leads by 20 points.
An ebbtide sinks all boats, and Tillis' fight for a 2nd term in the USA's quintessential battleground state cannot be judged absent the larger context of how Republicans are faring nationwide in the final weeks of President Donald J. Trump's first term. Movement in the Presidential contest between Trump and Democrat Joseph Biden and movement in the election for Governor of North Carolina, poll results from which will be released over the coming 48 hours, provide context to interpret Tillis' failure to thrive.
The nomination of Judge Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court of the United States, following the death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, appears to be a push for Tillis. 17% of voters statewide say Barret's nomination makes them much more likely to support Tillis. But 19% of voters say the nomination makes them much more likely to support Cunningham.
By contrast, whether Tillis' fault or not, NC voters are twice as likely to say that the fact that Tillis contracted the Coronavirus, COVID-19, makes them much more likely to vote for Tillis' Democratic opponent. A majority of voters, 58%, say Tillis catching COVID does not affect how they will vote. 10% of voters statewide say the virus makes they more likely to support Tillis. 23% of voters statewide say the virus makes them more likely to support Cunningham.