This continues an ongoing series about the 2020 Senate elections (my most recent update on the Presidential race is here). With a week and a half to go until election day, I’ll do one final update the Sunday or Monday before. However, it’s worth keeping in mind that more than 53 million people have already voted — and Democratic voters are outpacing Republicans almost 2 to 1, based on states that provide the partisan breakdown of voters who have already cast their ballots.
As usual, we’ll review the total seats each of the sites we’re tracking forecasts, then the polling averages provided by 270towin (270) and RealClearPolitics (RCP). Numbers are from 10/23:
538: D 51, R 49 (updated daily; no change). The site offers three different models to choose from; the Deluxe version forecasts the 51-49 split, while the ‘Lite’ and ‘Classic’ versions forecast a 52-48 split. Toss-ups (less than a 60% chance for either candidate) include IA and the GA-special election (where Warnock is given a 54% chance of winning).
DailyKos : D 48, R 49, 3 toss-ups (no change). This is based off of the DKos competitiveness map for Senate races, not the polling averages. Toss-ups are IA, ME, and NC.
Princeton Election Consortium: D 53, R 47 (updated daily; no change). AK, MT and IA are now the Senate “Moneyball” states.
Electoral-vote.com: D 50, R 49, 1 tie (updated daily; R +2). D pickups are AZ, CO, ME, and NC; R pickup is AL; the tie is IA.
Rachel Bitecofer: D 51, R 49 (October update; D +1). Ds pick up AZ, CO, ME, and NC; Rs pick up AL. IA is the only race still rated a toss-up.
Inside Elections: D 50, R 48, toss-ups 2 (updated 10/16; no change). Ds pick up AZ, CO, ME and NC; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are IA and MT.
Sabato's Crystal Ball: D 50, R 49, toss-ups 1 (updated 10/20; D +1). Ds pick up AZ, CO, ME and IA; Rs pick up AL. Toss-up is NC.
Cook Political Report: D 48, R 45, toss-ups 7 (updated 10/13; toss-ups +1). Ds pick up AZ and CO, Rs pick up AL; toss-ups are GA-Perdue, GA-Special, IA, ME, MT, NC and SC.
RealClearPolitics: D 45, R 46, toss-ups 9 (updated daily; toss-ups +2). Ds now pick up only CO, on the RCP map; Rs pick up AL. Toss-ups are AZ, GA-Perdue, IA, ME, MI, MN, MT, NC, and SC. Continuing their bend-over-backwards GOP lean, RCP is the only site that does not see AZ flipping to the Ds and that thinks the D seats in MI and MT are actually in play.
Although most sites did not change in their forecasts, both Ds and Rs had others shift in their direction. However, 6 of the 9 models we are now tracking favor the Ds to win 50 seats or more; NONE of them do so for the Rs. The GOP continues to play defense everywhere, and with tens of millions of votes already cast, they’re falling further behind. Now for the individual races:
CO (Hickenlooper/D vs Gardner/R): D +9.2 (270), D +8.5 (RCP). Hickenlooper extends his lead.
MI (Peters/D vs James/R): D +5.4 (270), D +5.2 (RCP). Peter’s lead drops back down a couple of points, but is still solidly outside the margin of error for the only D seat on this list. A single poll by the R-leaning Trafalgar Group pulled down his average.
AZ (Kelly/D vs McSally/R): D +5.5 (270), D +5.6 (RCP). Again, a single poll with McSally leading pulls down the D margin; there is literally not one other poll since February that shows McSally ahead. Everything else in the most recent polls shows at least a 4-pt Kelly lead
ME (Gideon/D vs Collins/R): D +4.0 (270), D +4.2 (RCP). Gideon’s average shrinks a little.
NC (Cunningham/D vs Tillis/R): D +2.9 (270), D +1.7 (RCP). Cunningham’s lead on 270 shrinks 1 more point, compared to my update 2 weeks ago. Still, his lead has held up remarkably well despite his recent sex scandal. A single tie poll reported by R-leaning Rasmussen drags his average down a bit.
IA (Greenfield/D vs Ernst/R): D +1.2 (270), D +1.8 (RCP). Slight tightening here as well.
GA (Ossoff/D vs Perdue/R): Tie (270), R +0.6 (RCP). For now, the most closely balanced race.
MT (Bullock/D vs Daines/R): R +0.8 (270), R +3.3 (RCP). Every poll on 270 from the last week has shown a 0-2 pt gap, so MT is as much a toss-up as IA.
SC (Harrison/D vs. Graham/R): R +1.2 (270), R +1.8 (RCP-last 4 polls). The most recent poll on 270 has a 2-pt Harrison lead, but the prior two had 6-pt Graham leads.
KS (Bollier/D vs Marshall/R): R +3.6 (270), R +3.0 (RCP). The two most recent polls (both in the last week) average out to a 2-pt Marshall lead, so this one can still go either way.
AK (Gross/I vs Sullivan/R): R +5.5 (270), R +8.0 (RCP-single most recent poll). Some more recent polling finally comes out and shows a firmer R lead here.
The wild card:
GA-Special (Warnock/D vs multiple others). Warnock has surged into the top spot in this race (33% on the RCP average), but is still well short of the 50% he needs to avoid a runoff. The R vote is still split between two competitive GOP candidates, but a couple of minor D candidates still siphon votes from Warnock. This one remains very unpredictable.
And the man we’d love to see lose:
KY (McGrath/D vs. McConnell/R): R +9.5 (270); R +9.0 (RCP — the only October poll). This may have tightened a little from McConnell’s 13.5-pt margin of 2 weeks ago, but McGrath is still far behind.
Entering the last few days, it’s looking like a minimum of 50 D senators with the top-tier pickup opportunities remaining the same as they always were in this election: AZ, CO, ME and NC (with the NC race tightening the most). The second tier includes another 4 races where polling averages are all within 1.2 pts either way (GA-Perdue, IA, MT, and SC). Assuming KS and AK remain where they are and AL is a R pickup, the most optimistic outcome for the Ds is a maximum of 54 seats (or 55, depending on the eventual outcome of the GA-Special race). But it remains possible that the Ds could still fall short of Senate control at 49 seats. Final forecasts are up in a week!
