As the temperature has been rising on COVID-19 stimulus negotiations the past couple weeks, I said a daily prayer that Democratic House leadership would not blow an easy opportunity to not only do the right thing, but tip the scales in favor of the GA Senate candidates. My prayers were not answered.
My premises were as follows:
- Winning the GA runoffs and gaining control of the Senate must be the Democrats’ top priority, By far. If the last 6 years of unprecedented obstructionism and bad faith by McConnell et al, e.g stolen SCOTUS seat(s), doesn’t make the reason for this obvious, there is probably no use in your reading on.
- The House has been proposing COVID-19 packages with real relief for months, only to get shot down by McConnell. But the average voter doesn’t know this (for reasons discussed later)
- With the clock ticking and stimulus media attention peaking, Democrats had an obvious opportunity to leverage this spotlight to get the stimulus story out to the average voter, and in the process energize GA voters with a timely, relevant, and relatable message: “Democrats are trying to help you, but Senate Republicans are blocking that help. Your vote can directly fix that”.
My dream was of the House employing a winning strategy that looked something like:
- Stop the behind the scenes negotiations, and pass a no-compromise, responsible, and popular bill, giving individuals and small businesses relief, without corporate/crony handouts.
- Immediately hold a press conference, sticking to a simple message: “The Democratic House has passed a bill giving you $X relief. All that needs to happen for the check to hit your mailbox is for McConnell and Senate Republicans to do their job”. Include whoever is needed at the presser to make sure it gets headlines and trends on social media (e.g. Biden, Harris, Sanders...).
- One of two things would then happen:
- (less likely): McConnell caves. People get a strong stimulus. House Democrats get rightful credit in the eyes of voters/media, and also telegraph to Republicans “don’t mess with us”
- (more likely): McConnell holds his ground. It becomes obvious to even the most casual observer that Democrats are for you, and the Republican Senate (including Perdue/Loeffler) are against you. The GA runoff messaging writes itself.
This approach seems pretty obvious to me, and I think would be to most Republican strategists as well — as they unfortunately own Democrats when it comes to messaging strategy and optics. No doubt some Democratic advisers somewhere suggested a similar approach. But sadly, the way it was handled turned a golden opportunity into what will likely be a net negative or neutral message at best:
- The House conducted endless behind the scenes negotiations, effectively obscuring from the average voter the fact that the Senate has been obstructing and holding out for a less popular bill that disproportionally benefits their wealthy and connected contributors.
- In the end, they caved to McConnell. My quarrel is not that they compromised, but that they did so in a way the left them vulnerable to blame for the shortcomings of what will likely be an unpopular bill. Since the bill originated in the House, from an optics perspective it’s easy to assign them the blame for it (“you watered it down, you own it”)
- Making this compromise right before the GA runoff is inexplicable political malpractice. Waiting two weeks would have allowed them to continue the message “The stimulus still isn’t passed, you need to vote out the Senators holding it up”. That has now been flipped to the voter perception of “Democrats passed a half-assed stimulus bill, thanks alot”. McConnell, Perdue, and Loeffler no doubt breathed a huge sigh of relief. And to those that will say “the people could not afford to wait any longer”, I argue that you aren’t doing them any favors — most voters consider the compromise bill a joke, and would gladly wait two weeks for the chance at getting a Democratic Senate that will pass a much more beneficial bill.
As the horrifying amount of support Trump received in the recent election proved, connecting with voters isn’t all about having the right policies or doing the right thing, it’s about messaging. And if you don’t believe House leadership failed to drive home the true message of what happened with this stimulus, take a look at a few random tweets that pop up under the trending stimulus topic:
Senate Republicans have been trying since July to get more targeted, bipartisan relief into the hands of the American people. Until the election, Democrats kept saying no.I’m glad for our country that we are finally moving ahead together.
The Targeted COVID-19 Relief Agreement
5:32 PM · Dec 21, 2020
Congressional Democrats have reached an agreement with Republicans and the White House on an emergency coronavirus relief and omnibus package that delivers urgently needed funds to save the lives and livelihoods of the American people.
7:01 PM · Dec 20, 2020
Nancy...$600 is a slap in the face and you know that.
7:02 PM · Dec 20, 2020
Great. $600 for the last 8 months = 1/16 teaspoonful of cough syrup when we have pneumonia. This is how Pelosi cares for us. She could have approved and forced $2000 per month, but she didn't even try.
The Republicans are winning the messaging battle on this. This was unbelievably predictable and easily avoidable, had a strategy similar to what’s outlined above beat the Republicans to the punch and preempted their lies and the public’s misperception.
This is what happens when you don’t know how to or don’t choose to employ basic messaging strategy. What’s the root of this failure? I’m not sure. My best guess is that there is a false assumption that most people are just like us, i.e. they are engaged and thoughtfully study current political events. But the opposite is true -- the average eligible voter has little to no interest in political details, and these days is particularly cynical and predisposed to believe all politicians are equally bad. They are simply not going to seek out details on their own. That is why presenting them with relatable, common sense stories/messages that are digestible in headline form is critical.
To those who say “why are you attacking/undermining your own, providing aid and comfort to the enemy”, I say the merest reflection will reveal that is not the case — nothing I have said questions the ideas, policies, integrity, or good faith of Democratic leaders, nor would it provide the least bit of cause for someone who believes in our party’s principles to look elsewhere.
And to those who say “lighten up on the leaders, they have done the best they can given Republican intransigence, media bias, etc”, I say it is the duty of party faithful to point out shortcomings that need to be fixed, and the hard truth is that we are not doing our best when it comes to messaging strategy. This is not about disagreeing with the leaderships’ policies, or even the compromises they reach — it is about their inability to convince voters of the reality that that we are fighting for good popular ideas and are good faith actors, and the other side is not. Most of the time, the failure to deliver this message is only marginally damaging, but in our current situation, the botched stimulus messaging might directly cost us control of the Senate — and that is a miscarriage that is outright unacceptable. Fixing this may be a bit difficult but it is far from impossible, and if we or our leadership throw up our arms saying “the media is unfair, the Republicans fight dirty, the electorate doesn’t pay attention” and give up, we deserve the title of “losers”.
Edit — as we now know, this story has a happy ending. Democratic leadership got a “second bite at the apple” to employ the strategy above and pass a no-compromise relief package, which, as predicted, resulted in the Senate being very publicly blamed for obstruction when they blocked it. The stimulus blockage message was used in the GA runoff campaign, assisting in the Democratic win. Unfortunately, this “second bite” was not a planned strategy, but rather a “lucky break” we caught as fallout from Trump using the COVID relief bill to punish Mitch McConnell.