So, I have been tracking my own prediction on the outcome of the election, and it is a little scary. Because it comes down to seven states, as I see it. Trump MUST WIN all seven of these states...a loss in any one of them hands the keys to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue to Joe Biden.
The seven states:
Arizona (I am not ready to put this one in the bag yet)
Florida (not ready….because it is Florida….’nuff said)
North Carolina (this will be a true squeaker. I live here, so i can say that with confidence)
Iowa (It could happen that Ernst loses and Trump wins, or vice-versa...too close)
Ohio (ok, so about 100 polls show this one to be ours, but not ready to put it in the bag yet)
Wisconsin (this one, I think, is likely ours, but not as strongly as I’d like it to be)
Georgia (I think this one is too optimistic, actually)
So here is a map of my latest and best projection, using my super-secret algorithms which take into account polls from reliable sources, approval/disapproval on COVID, right track/wrong track polls...and the historical voting pattern of states in Presidential elections. It is necessary to take other factors than JUST polls into account, because people lie to pollsters, and you also do not know their algorithms for scaling up the sample.
All of those numbers are fed into my cruncher, and gives me a result which I believe will be close to the actual result. And what I have right now, is 375 — 163, we win. BUT….and here’s the rub...take ONLY the states which are SAFE Dem and STRONGLY Dem — and we get 269. NE-02 is gonna be VERY IMPORTANT this year!!
Here’s a map:
We certainly have an easier path than Trump does. But it isn’t in the bag YET.
A few notes now:
Texas has been trending our way, and we even have polled a win a few times. I am not ready to go there just yet….but a loss of Texas is game over for the GOP.
I see weaker support than normal in Montana because of Steve Bullock. I don’t think his coattails are long enough to win this for us, but Trump’s support should be weaker. Interestingly, Montana is a state likely to pick up an EV in 2021.
I see weaker support in the Dakotas, because COVID is affecting the shale oil industry. Likewise, I see weaker than expected support in Kansas and Nebraska, because agriculture isn’t doing terrific lately, again, due to COVID...and a few other little trade wars…
Iowa is just too tough to call at he moment. Georgia….is a bit optimistic in my view.
Wisconsin ought to be ours...but you never know...and Ohio….well...let’s say this...Democrats have won the Presidency without getting Ohio’s EV’s. The GOP never has.
Anyway...my absolute most conservative call right now is 269 EV’s for us, and my most optimistic is 375 EV’s for us.