I saw today an article from Rolling Stone, pointed out in dkos's Abbreviated Pundit Roundup. It's by Tim Miller. It's really worth reading the whole thing.
Miller talked to nine Republican consultants and strategists. All seemed to be pretty pessimistic about Trump's and Republicans' chances in the fall. But three things really jumped out at me. The first and second are amazing enough, but the third is really astonishing.
1. They are afraid to talk about distancing their candidate clients from Trump, even in private.
2. They really believe their own bullshit. Stuff like that Biden's will be an "extremist Democrat administration."
3. Even expecting to lose in 2020, in 2022 "we go back to a semi-normal Republican party" and "probably take back the house in two years, maybe even gains on the state level...."
That last one made me laugh. It's precious, another clue that they're high on their own supply.
When Trump loses in November (Dog willing), the Republican Party will not get back to "normal." Republicans right now are a bunch of different factions held together only by their various hatreds, of brown people, of non-Christians, of "socialists," etc. And they all hate each other, too. It's just they hate non-Republicans, especially brown people, even more. For now.
But when they lose, that coalition will fly apart. The blame game will start, each blaming the other. The fights will be epic. The Never Trumpers who stayed within the party will blame the Trumpanzees, the Trumpanzees will blame them back for not having enough faith in Trump, the remaining moderates will blame the talibangicals, etc., etc.
And each subgroup will put up their saviour for the party as a candidate for every race. They'll have 897 candidates for president in 2024. Every little county party will be suing its members for trying to cheat in the local party officer elections. They'll dig up and publicize dirt on each other. They'll fragment into dozens of parties: the Constitution Party, the Libertarian Party, the Neolibertarians, the Founder's Constitution Party, the Bible Party, the White Supremacy Party, the Tax Cuts Lead to Nirvana Party, the Anti-Immigration Party, ....you get the idea. They're all arrogant enough and hate the others enough to think that only they, and they alone, can save conservatism.
There is no chance they will have a thoughtful moment and decide they've been a bunch of hate-filled pigs, and decide to solve that problem.
So, why didn't the Democratic Party fragment after its horrific defeat in 2016, as I expect the Republican Party will? Because Democrats are driven by different motivations. Democrats aren't about who you hate, we're about trying to make things better for everyone. That's a unifying force, even when we don't all agree on the method or timetable.
Republicans are being held together now because Trump hates everyone, so each of their factions can find their own hatred in him. But once Trump is gone, they won't be able to pull that off.
By the way, when someone says they worry that Trump might resign before the election and Pence could step in and win, I point out to them what I've said above. Can't happen. Trump resigns, and the Republican Party explodes into a little hate group circular firing squad.