Gonzales’ win, belated as it was, gives national Republicans their preferred nominee for this west Texas seat, which swung from 51-48 Romney to 50-46 Clinton. Gonzales had the backing of House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy and Rep. Will Hurd, who is retiring from this district, and he earned Donald Trump’s endorsement in the final days of the contest. Sen. Ted Cruz, though, backed Reyes, who had been waging a long-shot primary bid against Hurd before the incumbent decided not to seek another term.
Cruz’s support wasn’t quite enough to get Reyes over the finish line, but it may have badly hurt Gonzales by dragging out the primary for an extra five weeks. Gonzales was already facing a difficult battle in the fall against Democrat Gina Ortiz Jones, who won her party’s nomination in the fall and ended June with a hefty $3 million on-hand.
Gonzales would have almost certainly been outspent by Jones no matter what, but the recount appears to have only made his cash struggles worse. On Tuesday, days before Reyes ended his campaign, Gonzales put out a statement griping, “This process is costing tens of thousands of dollars that could be used to defeat Gina Jones. So far, legal costs on both sides could be enough to fund weeks’ worth of television advertising.”
Still, while Gonzales is the underdog, neither party is acting like this contest is over in what has been a competitive district for years. Earlier this month, the Republican’s campaign released a poll from Public Opinion Strategies that showed him trailing Jones just 41-40, while Joe Biden led 48-45; so far, Democrats haven’t released their own polling here. Outside groups from both parties have also booked millions in TV time in this area, though many of those ads could be used in races in nearby House seats. Daily Kos Elections rates this contest as Lean Democratic.
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