This race race was not supposed to lean Democratic.
But the incumbent’s unpopularity within his own party and a national environment that continues to benefit Democrats has pushed Sen. Tillis into a defensive crouch.
Cunningham’s biggest concern is that he is still polling below 50%. If, as many assume, Republican voters “come home” on election day, then suddenly this becomes a one point race.
But Cunningham has to be feeling good about the fact that he has led almost every poll since February, except for a handful of East Carolina polls that consistently have Tillis up 1 point.
This is set to be the most expensive Senate race in history — an enduring feature of North Carolina Senate politics.
But the question is whether money will make the difference this time. With the pandemic and Trump dominating the environment, will the onslaught of negative ads by Tillis be enough to slow Cunningham’s clear momentum?
Trump continues to visit North Carolina to buttress his own chances of carrying the state. But it’s no accident that Tillis never shares the stage. As a result, this state is perhaps the most likely to split its president/senate ticket.