As Senate Democrats prepare to pass President Biden's wildly popular COVID-19 rescue plan, the race for control of the upper chamber in next year's midterms is starting to heat up. That Biden ran on his ability to mount a competent pandemic response and Senate Democrats are now poised to help him deliver on a package that polls extraordinarily well (even among GOP voters) is a boost to Democratic efforts to maintain control of the Senate.
But it's going to be a dogfight. CNN released a list Wednesday of their top 10 flippable Senate seats based on the outlet's reporting and historical data about state and candidate performance. Though it wasn't by design, CNN’s list happened to show an even partisan split in potential flips, with five Democratic and five Republican seats ranking among the most likely to change hands.
Historically speaking, Democrats are fighting an uphill battle given that the party gaining control of the White House almost always suffers some backlash in the following midterm election cycle. But frankly, these are ahistorical times and Democrats will start with the advantage that they are only defending 14 seats to Republicans' 20.
Still, the partisan split among those races taking place in battleground states is also even, with Democrats defending in Arizona, Georgia, New Hampshire, and Nevada and Republicans defending in Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. But even there, Democrats have an advantage because all of their incumbents appear to be running for reelection, while Republicans will be fighting to maintain control of two open battleground seats following the retirements of Sens. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania and Richard Burr of North Carolina. The potential retirement of someone like Iowa's 87-year-old Sen. Chuck Grassley could also create more Democratic opportunities.
But any way you slice it, there's a lot for progressives to like in terms of GOP targets. First of all, CNN's No. 1 pick for a flippable seat is the open seat in the Keystone State. The outlet's No. 3 pick is the seat of Wisconsin conspiracy theory lover and spreader Sen. Ron Johnson. North Carolina's open seat is also in the top five, and then there's Florida GOP Sen. Marco Rubio clocking in at No. 9. Here's CNN's ranked top 10 list:
- 1. Pennsylvania (open): Retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey
- 2. Georgia: Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock
- 3. Wisconsin: GOP Sen. Ron Johnson (most vulnerable GOP incumbent)
- 4. North Carolina (open): Retiring GOP Sen. Richard Burr
- 5. Arizona: Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly
- 6. Nevada: Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto
- 7. New Hampshire: Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan
- 8. Ohio (open): Retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman
- 9. Florida: GOP Sen. Marco Rubio
- 10. Colorado: Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet
Just eyeballing that list, it's easy to like Democrats' chances of netting one or two seats, but certainly nothing is a given—particularly once the GOP's frantic efforts to disenfranchise Democratic voters are factored in.
That said, Democrats are gearing up to run for reelection on a legislative initiative that seems to get more popular by the poll. The latest Politico/Morning Consult poll found that a 53% majority of Republican voters backed the $1.9 trillion package even when they were told it was Democrats' plan (59% of GOP voters backed it when they weren’t told). Overall, 77% of voters backed the stimulus plan when its Democratic origin was not disclosed, while 71% supported it when the Democratic label was included.
As Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said Wednesday responding to GOP criticisms of the $1.9 trillion plan, "This bill is not a liberal wish list. It's an American wish list."
That's a good opening bid for 2022 that will be even stronger if the country is starting to return to some sense of normalcy by early next year.