On Friday morning, U.S. intelligence predicted that the Ukraine capital of Kyiv could fall to Russia forces “within days.” At the same time, Ukraine appears to be digging in for a long fight. Civilians are being instructed in how to make Molotov cocktails, and weapons are being handed out on the streets. If Kyiv falls, it is not going to go down without a fight.
On Friday afternoon, President Joe Biden spoke again with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy professed his gratitude for U.S. efforts while hinting that the conversation went well beyond current sanctions.
Even as Russian forces move in along the west and north sides of Kyiv, there are still reports that Russian armored units have been held up between Kyiv and the border with Belarus. Some of this delay comes from bridges that Ukraine deliberately took out along the Russian route, but there continue to be reports of active military engagements north of Kyiv, pinning down portions of the Russian advance.
In the south, reports of large amphibious assaults are coming from areas west of Mariupol in the east, as air attacks have been made on Odessa in the west. Some reports are suggesting that increased use of amphibious assaults may be a Russian attempt to bypass defensive positions where Ukrainian troops have halted columns moving in from Russia. Night has now fallen across Ukraine, but the fighting continues. That includes the running battles near Kharkiv and Kherson where control of positions continues to go back and forth between both sides, and the collection of wrecked and abandoned military hardware keeps growing.
One thing that has absolutely died in the last 24 hours: any perception that Russia is holding back, or trying to avoid civilian targets. Russia is attacking indiscriminately. And Ukraine is simply putting up a helluva fight.
Friday, Feb 25, 2022 · 7:42:00 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
A warning from the Foreign Minister of Ukraine
At this point, it’s hard to believe anyone would believe Russia. Even Russians. The frightening thing is thinking that Putin might sacrifice lives to this farce, just so he can make a claim that no one believes anyway.
Friday, Feb 25, 2022 · 8:22:25 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Multiple sources now confirming the Ukrainian victory at Konotop. Indications are that Russian forces outran their supply lies and found themselves short on both ammo and fuel. There are also reports that Russian troops were doing something that has literally cost battle since the Bronze Age — they abandoned their vehicles to spend some time looting local stores.
Friday, Feb 25, 2022 · 8:25:57 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Amnesty International is cataloging the war crimes that Russia is committing in Ukraine. This comes as there are reports Russia intends to threaten the families of Ukrainian soldiers.
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine has been marked by indiscriminate attacks on civilian areas and strikes on protected objects such as hospitals,… Indiscriminate attacks violate international humanitarian law (the laws of war) and can constitute war crimes.”
Friday, Feb 25, 2022 · 8:37:55 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Video in Moscow shows several nuclear-capable ICBMs on the move. All of these have plenty of range to reach any reasonable target, meaning that moving them is likely unconnected to anything going on in Ukraine. Except that moving them through heavily trafficked streets around Moscow was likely meant to be noticed, so that news would be filled with “gee, Russians are rolling out the nukes!” stories.
Friday, Feb 25, 2022 · 9:24:26 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
Multiple reports of extensive bombing of airbase and fuel depot near Mykolaiv. This is another city in the south, about 30 miles inland and halfway along the coast between Crimea and Odessa. That it hasn’t be taken to this point is a good sign. However, there are suggestions that Russia is deliberately holding back from taking city centers, waiting to see what happens when / if Kyiv falls.
Friday, Feb 25, 2022 · 11:10:18 PM +00:00 · Mark Sumner
The UN Security Council has voted on a draft resolution condemning Russia’s attack on Ukraine. As expected, Russia vetoed the resolution, breaking with a rule that members are expected to sit out votes on conflicts where they are involved.
‘The good news out of the vote is that China abstained. So Russia was the only no vote. Not that it makes any difference as far as the UN taking action.
One thing is becoming very clear: This is not going the way Putin expected. Ukraine is a nation the size of Texas with a population as large as California. Russia may have surrounded it with 190,000 troops, tanks, and planes, but that’s not enough to defeat and subdue Ukraine. Not when Ukraine is willing to stand and fight.
Ukrainian troops are armed with many of the same systems as the Russians they are facing. Those systems may be a generation or two older, but they’re not massively outclassed by the more modern Russian equipment. (One exception: GRAD missile systems.) Part of this is a matter of how these systems are being used. Russia stopped using the MiG-29 fighter—the plane supposedly being flown by the “Ghost of Kyiv”—because it has a very limited range. For a Russian military designed to advance aggressively into foreign nations, that range issue was a big one. For a Ukrainian defender flying over their own city … not so much.
In reaction to their failure to achieve easy victory, Russia is responding in two predictable ways: More numbers, more brutality. Many of the troops moving into Ukraine are veterans of combat in Syria. Utterly destroying civilian neighborhoods to crush the will of defenders is nothing new. Russia also has a bigger pool of forces to dip into. It’s dipping.
Even as this war continues, politicians and pundits continue to make the claim that we—President Biden, the U.S., and the West in general—have "underestimated” Vladimir Putin. That's exactly backwards. Everyone who has painted this guy as some kind of master tactician with a “long game,” or pretended that he has some special insight into human nature, is dead wrong. He’s a brute. A thug. He likes to break things. He likes to kill people. His understanding of the consequences is limited, because until now there have been few consequences. The mistake is treating him as if he's something more.
More large explosions in Kyiv on Friday night. Source unclear.
Russian troops exiting transports near Kherson earlier on Friday.
Civilian driver in Kharkiv comes under fire from GRAD system.
In Mariupol, said to be the site of an amphibious landing.
A thread on Odessa and the people who live there as Russian forces attack and damage historic buildings in the area.
This is just one of several reported attacks on power plants across Ukraine. Cities may soon find themselves in the dark as Russian forces attempt to encircle population centers.
