Not so very long ago it was unthinkable that a United States president would call his supporters to the capital to disrupt the certification of the president-elect and initiated an insurrection. But it happened. What’s next? Barton Gellman, staff writer for The Atlantic who months before January 6 accurately anticipated many of that day’s events, has more recently written, “January 6 was practice.” Perhaps for something like a new civil war?
Gellman went on to say, “Trump has built the first American mass political movement in the past century that is ready to fight by any means necessary, including bloodshed, for its cause.” His voice is far from alone. Not much more than a year ago political scientists and experts who have spent their careers studying the causes and consequences of civil wars in other nations cautioned against alarmism when considering the possibility of widespread political violence in the United States. Now many are themselves alarmed. Two books in the last ten days and dozens of article in the past year have been published examining the possibility of a new American civil war.
Very troubling information is coming from recent polls. Profound pessimism is widespread. A new NPR/Ipsos poll finds that 64% agree that American democracy is in crisis and at risk of failing. An even larger percentage, 70%, say the America itself is at risk of failing. Pervasive suspicion and deep partisan hostility have darkened the views of many about the future of the country. More than two-thirds of Americans surveyed in another new CBS News poll said the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol was not an isolated event but a sign of things to come, as Gellman has maintained above. A significant majority believe there will be violence around the next presidential election.
This should be no surprise given that a growing number of Americans hold that political violence is justifiable. Still another poll, one done by Washington Post-University of Maryland, indicates that 34% of Americans believe violent action against the government is justified. This is considerably higher than in past polls dating back more than two decades. The new survey reveals 40 percent of Republicans, 41 percent of independents and 23 percent of Democrats declare political violence is sometimes justified.
Certainly, answering on a poll that political violence is justifiable does not mean that those who gave such an answer are ready and willing to pick up a weapon and go out to fight. However, many are willing to do exactly that. Researchers at the University of Chicago Project on Security and Threats have been tracking insurrectionist sentiments in U.S. adults. They have concluded that there is a small but significant minority of mainstream America who support violent insurrection. Their estimate is at 22 million. This group agree both that force is justified to restore Trump to office and that Biden is an illegitimate president. They also have at least one of two additional beliefs:
“African American people or Hispanic people in our country will eventually have more rights than whites” – a belief sometimes called “the Great Replacement.”
and
“A secret group of Satan-worshipping pedophiles is ruling the US government,” which is central beliefs in the QAnon movement.
If only a quarter of that number act on their convictions, the possible death and destruction will be horrifying.
Ordinary Americans, even those who have embraced the most radical viewpoints, are unlikely to act without some form of encouragement –explicit or implicit- from those in leadership. Rachel Kleinfeld , senior fellow in the Democracy, Conflict, and Governance Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, recently wrote that "while social factors may have created the conditions, politicians have the match to light the tinder. In recent years, some candidates on the right have been particularly willing to use violent speech and engage with groups that spread hate."
Examples are easy to find.
We can recall Rep. Paul A. Gosar (R-Ariz.) sharing an altered, animated video that depicts him killing Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Then there was the Christmas cards of Rep. Lauren Boebert, (R-Colo) and Rep. Thomas Massie, (R-Ky), that could not have been further from the spirit of the Prince of Peace, depicting their family members holding deadly weapons. There have been numerous comments by conservative members of Congress suggesting that political violence might be necessary to insure America is their America…but their words always fall just barely short of actually advocating for violence. And of course Donald Trump has made many comments and gestures that by all appearances condone violence. All of this fosters greater hostility and helps create an atmosphere in which violence against political adversaries is more thinkable, increasing the likelihood that some will take action.
None of this is to say that there is no hostility or violence on the left. But it is tremendously misleading to claim that the threat of widespread violence we are currently facing is a product of both sides. It is overwhelmingly from the right. The threats of violence that are being made in city commission meetings, school board meeting, toward election officials and members of Congress are almost exclusively from Trumpist conservatives. But when violent words begin to be replaced by deadly force those on the left will surely respond. And as Rachel Kleinfeld remarked, "Once violence begins, it fuels itself. Far from making people turn away in horror, political violence in the present is the greatest factor normalizing it for the future."
“We’re heading into rough waters,” wrote John Kiriakou, former CIA counterterrorism officer and a former senior investigator with the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. And then in a statement as depressing as I have ever heard, he wrote, “We can’t count on enlightened political leadership. We can’t count on bipartisanship. We can’t count on those public servants hired to keep the peace. I know that in business school they teach you that “hope is not a strategy.” But all I can do is keep my fingers crossed.”
I recall the dark and dismal words of Franz Kafka: “There is an infinite amount of hope in the universe ... but not for us.” I don’t want to believe that is the case. Yet I have seen politically hostile interactions, paid attention to the news, and read from those who know the most about civil war and social breakdown. None of it leads me to have a positive outlook for the United States.
Some experts are wondering if the nation has already passed the point of no return, believing that something like a civil war is nearly inevitable. Too few are offering substantial guidance for how the deep and hate-filled fractures can be mended. As an ordinary citizen my ability to make a difference is limited. What I will do is vote for political candidates who are committed to democracy, commit myself to nonviolence regardless of what others do, and pray. And I will hope against hope that this helps make a difference.