Russian aerial bombardment continues even as Ukraine continues a steady advance in both the east and south. A series of explosions in the central Shevchenkivskyi district of Kyiv left at least five people dead and dozens wounded, according to a government official.
- Russian forces conducted massive missile strikes across Ukraine for the second day in a row.
- The Russian Federation is likely extracting ammunition and other materiel from Belarusian storage bases, which is incompatible with the notion that Russian forces are setting conditions for a ground attack against Ukraine from Belarus.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct counteroffensives east of the Oskil River and in the direction of Kreminna-Svatove.
- Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian troops continued ground attacks in northern and western Kherson Oblast.
- Ukrainian forces are continuing an interdiction campaign to target Russian military, technical, and logistics assets and concentration areas in Kherson Oblast.
- Russian forces continued to conduct ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast.
- Russian reporting of explosions in Dzhankoy, Crimea, indicated panic over losing further logistics capabilities in Crimea following the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion.
- Russian federal subjects are announcing new extensions and phases of mobilization in select regions, which may indicate that they have not met their mobilization quotas.
- Russian and occupation administration officials continue to conduct filtration activities in Russian-occupied territories.
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Russia continued to attack key infrastructure in Ukraine with missile strikes on Tuesday. Amid warnings from the UN and some Nato countries that Moscow may be committing a war crime with its continuing deadly blitz on civilian targets, Russia’s defence ministry confirmed its troops continued to launch long-range airstrikes on Ukraine’s energy and military infrastructure.
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The leaders of the G7 condemned Russia’s most recent missile attacks on cities across Ukraine “in the strongest possible terms” and vowed to stand “firmly” with Kyiv “for as long as it takes”.
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Ukraine’s president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, asked G7 leaders to supply more air defence systems and for an international monitoring mission on the Belarusian border.
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The French president, Emmanuel Macron, described Russia’s attacks as “a profound change in the nature of this war”. During Russia’s strikes in recent days, cruise missiles and armed drones rained down on parks, playgrounds, power stations and other civilian targets.
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Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, is a “rational actor who has miscalculated significantly,” US president Joe Biden said in a clip of a CNN interview broadcast on Tuesday.
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Ukrainian authorities said on Tuesday they exhumed the bodies of dozens of people, including civilians and a one-year-old baby, to determine the cause of death after the retreat of Russian troops from Lyman and Sviatohirsk, two recently liberated towns in the eastern Donetsk region.
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Roughly 30% of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been hit by Russia since Monday, officials said. As millions in Ukraine are facing blackouts due to the attacks, the government has urged civilians to cut their electricity use and not use domestic appliances such as ovens and washing machines.
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The Kremlin has confirmed that Putin will meet Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, on Thursday to discuss Ukraine.
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Moscow would not turn down a meeting between Putin and Biden at the G20 meeting next month, Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, said. Moscow was open to talks with the west on the Ukraine war but had yet to receive any “serious offers” to negotiate, Lavrov said in an interview on Russian state television.
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Putin has told the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency that he is “open to dialogue” on the Russian-occupied Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant.
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Meanwhile the deputy head of the Zaporizhzhia power plant has been kidnapped by Russian forces, Ukraine’s state nuclear energy company Energoatom said. Valeriy Martynyuk was taken on Monday and is being detained in an unknown location, Energoatom said in a post on Telegram.
www.theguardian.com/...
The Kremlin hopes that the nuclear threat will compel Washington to step in and “freeze” the conflict with Russia’s current territorial gains, though there does not appear to be unanimity among the Russian leadership on whether the conflict should be frozen temporarily, until Russia can regain its strength, or forever.
Moscow has also changed its rhetoric on U.S. military assistance to Ukraine. This is now being referred to as “direct participation in hostilities,” and the Kremlin is warning that it could lead to an inevitable military conflict between the United States and Russia—though all the actions of the Biden administration have been aimed at avoiding such a conflict, and supplying weapons and intelligence was common practice even during the Cold War.
The Kremlin is also sending Washington other signals that it is serious. In particular, the Diplomatic Academy of the Foreign Ministry organized a conference to mark the sixtieth anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crisis, focusing on lessons learned from the crisis, such as “respecting other countries’ red lines” and resolving conflicts through secret channels.
Simultaneously, Moscow is taking actions that can be interpreted by the United States as boosting the readiness of its nuclear forces: releasing footage of a train carrying the equipment of a Defense Ministry directorate responsible for Russia’s nuclear arsenal; announcing military exercises using Iskander missile systems in Kaliningrad; preparing to test a Burevestnik nuclear-powered cruise missile in Novaya Zemlya; closing air space to test-launch a Sarmat intercontinental ballistic missile from Plesetsk to Kamchatka; and surfacing the Belgorod nuclear submarine, carrying Poseidon nuclear torpedoes, in neutral waters, where it is sure to be seen.
All of the above are routine exercises, albeit grouped more closely together. Even if the Defense Ministry begins shuttling trains with nuclear warheads back and forth, this is common practice for both Russia and the United States, and might raise the nuclear threat level, but will not faze Biden. Moscow could take a page from the Cuban Missile Crisis playbook and keep escalating the combat readiness of the Strategic Nuclear Forces to its maximum, with bombers armed with nuclear cruise missiles on full alert or even up in the air, and submarines deployed to patrol zones. However, it would be easy to get carried away and make a fatal mistake.
For now, Moscow is not making any extraordinary steps, and the Pentagon is not taking the bait. This means that Washington is not motivated to rush in and stop Kyiv on the battlefield.
Despite the frenzied television coverage, it is unlikely that Moscow is serious about using nuclear weapons. A showcase detonation of a nuclear warhead over Novaya Zemlya, the Black Sea, or the Chernobyl exclusion zone will not scare off Kyiv. What it will do is destroy any remnants of Russia’s reputation as a signatory of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty and deprive Moscow of Turkey, India, and China’s amicable neutrality.
carnegieendowment.org/...
Russian forces conducted massive missile strikes across Ukraine for the second day in a row on October 11. The Ukrainian General Staff stated that Russian forces fired nearly 30 Kh-101 and Kh-55 cruise missiles from Tu-95 and Tu-160 strategic bombers and damaged critical infrastructure in Lviv, Vinnytsia, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia oblasts.[1] Ukrainian air defense reportedly destroyed 21 cruise missiles and 11 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).[2] Social media footage shows the aftermath of strikes throughout Ukraine.[3] Russian forces additionally continued to launch attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure with Iranian-made Shahed-136 drones.[4] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian air defense destroyed eight Shahed-136 drones in Mykolaiv Oblast on the night of October 10 and 11.[5]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Supporting Effort—Southern Axis (Russian objective: Maintain frontline positions and secure rear areas against Ukrainian strikes)
Russian forces continued routine artillery, air, and missile strikes west of Hulyaipole, and in Dnipropetrovsk, Mykolaiv, and Odesa oblasts on October 10. Russian and Ukrainian sources reported that Russian forces struck Zaporizhia City, Mykolaiv City, Kryvyi Rih, Dnipro City, and unspecified locations in Odesa Oblast.[41] Ukrainian sources also stated that Russian forces fired on Kutsurub Hromada, Mykolaiv Oblast, from positions on the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast.[42]
Russian sources reported explosions in Dzhankoy, Crimea, on October 11. A Russian milblogger reported that the explosion occurred at a rail junction between the Kherson-Kerch and Kharkiv-Sevastopol rail lines but did not identify a cause.[43] The source noted that the only logistics route through Crimea that supplies Russian forces in southern Ukraine runs through Dzhankoy.[44] Russian news outlet Baza reported that a Russian tank accidentally fired while undergoing repairs, striking a house in Dzhankoy and wounding a child.[45] The reporting and claims over this incident indicate Russian panic over losing further logistics capabilities in Crimea following the Kerch Strait Bridge explosion.
Russian occupation authorities intensified efforts to strengthen their physical control over the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant (ZNPP) in occupied Enerhodar, likely to set conditions to take control over ZNPP operations and integrate the ZNPP into the Russian power grid. Ukrainian nuclear agency Energoatom reported that Russian occupation authorities kidnapped and tortured the ZNPP’s Deputy General Director Valeriy Martynyuk on October 10 and continue to hold Martynyuk in an unknown location.[46] Energoatom stated that Russian occupation authorities are torturing Martynyuk to obtain personal information about ZNPP personnel to force them into working for Russian nuclear agency Rosatom instead.[47] Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that occupation authorities are forcing ZNPP personnel to sign contracts with Rosatom and use Russian passports for official work.[48] Energoatom stated that Russian authorities have begun transporting beds, mattresses, heaters, and other household items to the ZNPP.[49] Energoatom stated that Russian authorities are either trying to establish a winter base at the ZNPP or intend to take Ukrainian ZNPP personnel hostage as they did during the occupation of the Chornobyl Nuclear Power Plant in February and March 2022.[50] Zaporizhia Occupation Administration Council Member Vladimir Rogov stated that the ZNPP has been reconnected to external power lines but that it is too early to talk about restarting the reactors.[51]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Eastern Ukraine: (Oskil River-Kreminna Line)
Russian sources claimed that Ukrainian forces continued to conduct offensive operations east of the Oskil River in the direction of Kreminna and Svatove on October 11. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces repelled Ukrainian forces near Krokhmalne in Kharkiv Oblast (20km northwest of Svatove) and Stel’makhivka in Luhansk Oblast (15km northwest of Svatove).[19] The Russian MoD also claimed that Ukrainian forces unsuccessfully attempted to cross the Zherebets River southwest of Svatove in the direction of Raihorodka and Novovodiane, Luhansk Oblast, on October 11.[20] [21] A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces are regrouping and restoring combat capabilities near Kupyansk to prepare for assaults near the Pershotravneve-Kyslivka line.[22] The milblogger also claimed that Ukrainian forces are concentrating personnel and equipment in the Lyman-Svatove direction to launch an offensive on Svatove and Kreminna with a strike group of up to 40,000 personnel.[23] ISW makes no effort to forecast Ukrainian operations or to evaluate the likelihood of Russian forecasts about them.
Russian sources claimed that Russian forces conducted a local counterattack and recaptured territories west of Kreminna while continuing to establish defensive positions in the Kreminna-Svatove area on October 11. Russian milbloggers claimed on October 11 that Russian forces conducted counteroffensive operations east of Lyman and recaptured Terny, Torske, Novosadove, Makiivka, and Nevske, although ISW cannot independently verify any of these claims.[24] Russian sources posted videos on October 11 purporting to show Russian forces constructing trenches with BTM-3 entrenching machines along the Svatove-Kreminna line, with one source dubbing the effort a Russian-made “Maginot” line (referring to the massive belt of French fortifications built between the two world wars that the Germans simply drove around).[25] Luhansk Oblast Head Serhiy Haidai also reported that Russian forces are continuing to mine territory in Luhansk Oblast to slow Ukrainian counteroffensive operations.[26] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces conducted routine indirect fire along the Oskil River-Kreminna line on October 11.[27]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian Subordinate Main Effort—Donetsk Oblast (Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas)
Russian forces continued to conduct ground assaults in Donetsk Oblast on October 11. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Ukrainian forces repelled Russian ground assaults near Bakhmut itself, northeast of Bakhkmut near Soledar and Bakhmutske, and south of Bakhmut near Mykolaivka and Mayorsk.[36] A Russian source stated that Russian forces tried to advance in the areas of Ozeryanivka south of Bakhmut and Kamianka, southeast of Bakhmut on the N20 highway.[37] The Ukrainian General Staff also reported that Ukrainian forces repelled a Russian ground assault west of Avdiivka near Pervomaiske.[38] A Russian source claimed that Russian forces conducted ground assaults in the directions of Nevelske and Pervomaiske.[39] The Russian Ministry of Defense claimed that Russian forces repelled three Ukrainian tactical company groups near Mykilske, Novomayorske, and Stepne in western Donetsk Oblast.[40]
www.understandingwar.org/...
On the limitations of
#casualty figures reported by conflict parties, see this
#thread:
"Killed soldiers" on the #Russian side, according to @MFA_Ukraine (reported Russian total #fatalities and newly daily reported Russian fatalities):
• • •
Bremmer is likewise adamant, writing on social media that Musk "told me he had spoken with [P]utin and the [K]remlin directly about [U]kraine."