On Monday, the statistical analysis website, FiveThirtyEight.com profiled nine Republican candidates running for Senate, House and Gubernatorial offices who attended the January 6, 2021 insurrectionist mob. One of the insurrectionist candidates profiled was Elizabeth “Liz” Lemery Joy, the Republican candidate for New York’s 20th Congressional District, who is now challenging long-time Democratic incumbent Paul Tonko. On January 6th, Joy helped to organize a charter bus that transported dozens of “Stop the Steal” protesters from Upstate New York down to the capital in Washington D.C.
To make matters even worse, shortly after attending the insurrection, Joy had the audacity to write a series of posts on her Twitter account where she joined the echo chamber of far-right conspiracy theorists who continue to parrot false claims that the January 6th attacks actually were the work of Antifa and other left-wing organizations.
Last week, one of the leading newspapers in the district, The Daily Gazette in Schenectady, had an outstanding editorial contrasting the experiences of Congressman Tonko on January 6, 2021 versus those of Joy. The editorial states that while “(Joy) was posing for selfies during a rally that questioned the results of a legitimate Presidential election…Tonko was fearing for his life while doing his job.”
From The Daily Gazette, Schenectady, NY, October 29, 2022:
WEIGHING IN – On the morning of Jan. 6, 2021, U.S. Rep. Paul Tonko noticed that Washington, D.C., seemed busier than usual, perhaps akin to crowds that arrive in town for a State of the Union Address. Tonko, a Democrat from Amsterdam, didn’t expect that hours later a mob would be marching toward the House chamber, where Tonko sat in the balcony with about two dozen fellow legislators. Members of the Capitol Police force barricaded doors with bookcases, but outside the chamber the noise was getting louder and louder to the point of pulsating.
Around the chamber, Capitol Police officers rushed to lock doors, even pausing to consider whether a handicap-accessible entrance should be closed off, Tonko recalled this past week during a meeting with The Daily Gazette’s editorial board.
Tonko said he heard doors rocking and shaking. Then, he heard gunfire.
One colleague was so overcome with fear, she lay flat on the floor screaming for police officers to help her put on a gas mask.
“I thought it was curtains,” Tonko said in an emotional retelling of his Jan. 6 experience. “I thought we were done.”
Meanwhile, Liz Joy, a Republican from Glenville who is running against Tonko in New York’s 20th Congressional District, was also in D.C. on Jan. 6. She helped organize a charter bus trip down to the nation’s capital to participate in the “Stop the Steal” rally.
“Still, the Jan. 6 experiences of the 20th Congressional District candidates stand in stark contrast. Two months after Tonko defeated Joy in their first Congressional matchup, she was posing for selfies during a rally that questioned the results of a legitimate Presidential election and spreading misinformation about left-wing groups being responsible for the violence at the Capitol; Tonko was fearing for his life while doing his job. “
Besides her attendance at the insurrection, another shocking fact about Liz Joy that hasn’t really garnered any attention by local television ornewspaper outlets is that she currently sits on the Board of Directors of the New York State Rifle and Pistol Association (NYSRPA), the statewide affiliate of the National Rifle Association. At one point, Joy even posted a tweet where she bragged about her position with the New York NRA group while she also expressed her strong support for the Supreme Court ruling last summer that overturned most state concealed carry laws.
Although the race between Tonko and Joy hasn’t attracted much statewide attention, as Tonko had long been presumed to be safe after defeating Joy by over 20 points two years ago, the changing political dynamics both nationally and locally here in Upstate New York may now be of concern.
In the statewide Gubernatorial race, most polls now show that Kathy Hochul’s lead over Lee Zeldin has been reduced down to single digits. In an October 20th co/efficient poll which broke down the crosstabs of the gubernatorial race, as well as the popularity of major political figures in every region of the state, the numbers in the Capital District (Albany/Schenectady/Troy), which mostly is represented by Tonko, did not look too promising. The co/efficient poll showed Biden with a dismal 37% approval rating and Hochul with a similarly dismal 36% favorable rating in the Capital District, and that Zeldin would carry the area by an 11 point margin (51%-40%) over Hochul. Now, two of the most powerful and influential Democratic lawmakers in Tonko’s district look like they may be threatened. Yesterday, an article in the Albany Times Union focused on how long-time State Assemblyman Phil Steck (D - Albany County), who normally only faces token opposition, is now facing an incredibly difficult challenge in a suburban district that Biden won by over 20 points two years ago and includes some of the most heavily Democratic communities in Tonko’s district, such as Colonie and Guilderland in Albany County, as well as Niskayuna in Schenectady County. That same article also mentioned that further to the north, the Republicans are spending more money to unseat State Assemblywoman Carrie Woerner (D - Saratoga County) than any other Democratic member of the chamber in a district that Biden won by more than 10 points in 2020. At this point, without any credible public polling data, it is anybody’s guess as to how secure Tonko may be.
I, however, will choose to remain optimistic that on November 8th that this district will retain its bluish-purple hue and will continue remain a holdout and a throwback to the pre-Trunp Upstate New York, which previously had a reputation for electing some of the nation’s most centrist and pragmatic House members, such as Sherwood Boehlert (R), Richard Hanna (R), Scott Murphy (D), Bill Owens (D) and Chris Gibson (R).
Let’s all hope that from Hadley Mountain south to the Helderbergs and from the shores of Sacandaga east to Schuylerville, sanity will prevail on Tuesday night and Paul Tonko will be elected to his eighth term in Congress.