It all may wind up being a futile attempt to extract a promise that Ukraine will never be in NATO.
WASHINGTON, Feb 5 (Reuters) - Russia has in place about 70% of the combat power it believes it would need for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine and is sending more battalion tactical groups to the border with its neighbor, two U.S. officials said on Saturday.
In the last two weeks, the number of battalion tactical groups in the border region has risen to 83 from 60 as of Friday and 14 more are in transit, the officials told Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the information.
As to the timing of an invasion, the ground is expected to reach peak freeze around Feb. 15, the officials said, allowing for off-road mechanized transit by Russian military units. Such conditions would continue until the end of March.
That timeline and the growing number and capability of Russian forces close to Ukraine could suggest the window for diplomacy is shutting.
The U.S. officials did not provide evidence to back up their estimates of Russia's forces.
As Russia masses more than 100,000 troops near the border, it has said it is not planning an invasion but could take unspecified military action if its security demands are not met. Those include a promise that NATO will never admit Ukraine, a demand Washington and NATO have said is unacceptable.
Washington believes Russia may choose other options than a full-scale invasion, including a limited incursion, and does not believe President Vladimir Putin had made a final decision, the officials said.
But they said Putin is putting in place a force that can execute all scenarios.
If Russia were to invade the capital of Kyiv, it could fall within a couple of days, the U.S. officials said.
A full-scale invasion would cause major casualties, one of the officials said.
Ukraine could suffer 5,000 to 25,000 troop casualties, while Russia's troop casualties could be between 3,000 and 10,000, and civilian casualties could range from 25,000 to 50,000, according to U.S. estimates, the official said.
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"It was part of a series of protests and political events that had begun in 2002 and continued as the invasion, war, and occupation took place. The day was described by social movement researchers as "the largest protest event in human history"2/
"According to BBC News, between six and ten million people took part in protests in up to sixty countries over the weekend of 15 and 16 February." 3/
"The largest protests took place in Europe. The one in Rome involved around three million people, and is listed in the 2004 Guinness Book of World Records as the largest anti-war rally in history."
"Madrid hosted the second largest rally with more than 1.5 million people protesting the invasion of Iraq; Mainland China was the only major region not to see any protests on that day, but small demonstrations, attended mainly by foreign students, were seen later." 4/
So why so few anti-war protests against Putin now?
Why does the world seem to care less about Ukrainians than Iraqis? Less about democratic Ukraine than autocratic Iraq? I honestly don't get it. Because people don't believe Putin will attack? Other theories? 5/ END THREAD.