The above figure is a daily count of new symptomatic Covid-19 cases reported by the PRC since March 1 (they also release a separate list of asymptomatic cases, but these are not included in the data reported via worldometer).
Following is a week-by-week comparison of the current Omicron outbreak in China with similar prior outbreaks in select other countries that also started from a position of less than 1,000 new Covid-19 cases per week, along with last year’s late Alpha outbreak in Taiwan that was successfully contained after just 3 weeks.
Note that in Hong Kong and Brunei there was a period of quasi-stability in new cases lasting 2-4 weeks after the initial runup before things really fell apart, but in Japan and New Zealand it was a more straightforward progression to the saturation peak — which was generally reached within 6-9 weeks of their initial outbreaks (defined as the first significant increase over the prior weekly average).
This week will probably prove decisive as to whether China will be successful in choking off the current outbreak by doubling down on its “Zero Covid” policy of draconian lockdowns, or if they are already too late to actually contain it at this point the way Taiwan managed to do last year. If they can push the weekly caseload back under 10,000 by next week, they may have a chance. But if they can’t, this table should provide a guide as to how it's likely to progress. Rather ominously, China also reported their first new deaths in nearly two years from covid yesterday.
Weekly Progression of Omicron Outbreaks
|
Taiwan |
Japan |
Hong
Kong
|
Brunei |
New
Zealand
|
China |
Start: |
13-May |
15-Dec |
31-Dec |
6-Jan |
26-Jan |
16-Feb |
Wk 0 |
Wk 1 |
Wk 2 |
Wk 3 |
Wk 4 |
Wk 5 |
Wk 6 |
Wk 7 |
Wk 8 |
Wk 9 |
Wk.10 |
|
83 |
1,569 |
4,191 |
3,121 |
2,076 |
1,370 |
806 |
464 |
296 |
197 |
165 |
|
922 |
1,300 |
2,034 |
4,478 |
41,980 |
154,225 |
344,710 |
533,288 |
657,192 |
587,433 |
551,354 |
|
94 |
4,350 |
4,565 |
4,365 |
5,055 |
5,080 |
9,674 |
24,858 |
72,403 |
421,421 |
266,669 |
|
142 |
498 |
539 |
502 |
1,108 |
6,353 |
18,557 |
46,714 |
65,035 |
62,772 |
37,858 |
|
495 |
1,070 |
1,685 |
5,005 |
15,830 |
103,530 |
143,755 |
132,060 |
120,000 |
|
562 |
998 |
1,556 |
2,107 |
10,599 |
15,324 |
|
All data compiled from worldometer