Russia may soon be able to rationalize a putative victory in the Donbas. Losses and diminishing of Russian combat power continues even as Ukraine prepares to mount counteroffensives in several areas. Weapons still pour into Ukraine and advanced longer-range missile tech may come into play while Russia tries to operate without declaring a full mobilization by changing age requirements for more contracted troops.
Key Takeaways
- Russian forces pressed the ground assault on Severodonetsk and its environs, making limited gains.
- Russian forces in Kharkiv continue to focus efforts on preventing a Ukrainian counteroffensive from reaching the international border between Kharkiv and Belgorod.
- Ukrainian forces began a counteroffensive near the Kherson-Mykolaiv oblast border approximately 70 km to the northeast of Kherson City that may have crossed the Inhulets River.
- Russia’s use of stored T-62 tanks in the southern axis indicates Russia’s continued materiel and force generation problems.
- Ukrainian partisan activity continues to impose costs on Russian occupation forces in Kherson and Zaporizhia oblasts.
Main effort—Eastern Ukraine (comprised of one subordinate and three supporting efforts);
- Subordinate Main Effort—Encirclement of Ukrainian troops in the cauldron between Izyum and Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts
- Supporting Effort 1—Kharkiv City;
- Supporting Effort 2—Southern Axis;
- Activities in Russian-occupied Areas
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian forces unsuccessfully attempted an offensive operation southeast of Izyum, likely in an effort to advance toward Slovyansk or Siversk. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces retreated after attempting to advance to Pasika, approximately 20 km southeast of Izyum.[4] Russian Telegram channels reported that Russian forces successfully seized Pasika on May 28, but ISW cannot independently confirm this claim.[5] Russian forces did not attempt to advance directly south of Izyum and are likely prioritizing an advance north of Lyman.[6] The Ukrainian General Staff also noted that Russian forces continued launching air and artillery strikes on settlements near Siversk, approximately 30 km west of Severodonetsk.[7] Russian forces from Izyum may join units in Lyman to conduct an offensive on Siversk or pursue a separate drive on Slovyansk. Russian forces are also reportedly transferring additional artillery and military equipment via Kupyansk, approximately 40 km west of the Russia-Kharkiv Oblast border.[8]
www.understandingwar.org/...
Russian forces continued ground assaults on Severodonetsk’s northern neighborhoods and have not fully encircled the city from the west. Luhansk Oblast Administration Head Serhiy Haidai reported that Russian forces seized a hotel and advanced to Severodonetsk’s bus terminal on May 27 and continued fighting with Ukrainian defenders in the area on May 28.[9] Haidai stressed that Russian forces have not isolated the city, despite damaging a bridge along the Lysychansk-Severodonetsk road.[10] Haidai indicated that Ukrainian forces may withdraw from the area to avoid getting surrounded.[11] Pro-Russian milblogger Alexander Sladkov (who has 850,000 followers) criticized Russian military commanders for beginning the Battle of Severodonetsk before fully encircling Ukrainian troops.[12] Sladkov also criticized the lack of coherent offensive tactics among Russian commanders, despite their successes around Lyman.
www.understandingwar.org/...
The Russian invasion of Ukraine that aimed to seize and occupy the entire country has become a desperate and bloody offensive to capture a single city in the east while defending important but limited gains in the south and east. Ukraine has twice forced Putin to define down his military objectives. Ukraine defeated Russia in the Battle of Kyiv, forcing Putin to reduce his subsequent military objectives to seizing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine stopped him from achieving that aim as well, forcing him to focus on completing the seizure of Luhansk Oblast alone. Putin is now hurling men and munitions at the last remaining major population center in that oblast, Severodonetsk, as if taking it would win the war for the Kremlin. He is wrong. When the Battle of Severodonetsk ends, regardless of which side holds the city, the Russian offensive at the operational and strategic levels will likely have culminated, giving Ukraine the chance to restart its operational-level counteroffensives to push Russian forces back.
www.understandingwar.org/...
Now, amid recent progress by Russia, the situation in the region is reaching a critical point.
Despite heavy losses, Ukraine’s military continues to fight hard, trying to wear out Russian forces. Surprisingly, given the circumstances, morale remains high among Ukrainian troops.
Russia has, over the past few weeks, largely abandoned its axis near the city of Izium, Kharkiv Oblast, and concentrated on areas at the border of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, as well as on the northern bank of the Siversky Donets River.
Rather than trying to encircle the entirety of Ukraine’s military in the east, Russia was forced to suppress its appetite by instead isolating and destroying smaller pockets of troops.
After over a month of stalled offensives, Russian forces have finally managed to make steady progress in the southeast near the ruined community of Popasna, Luhansk Oblast. Russian forces have compromised the key T1302 highway (nicknamed “the road of life”), which connects the twin cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk in Luhansk Oblast with Donetsk Oblast.
Russia now keeps the principal Ukrainian supply line under fire control and threatens to cut it off completely.
A continuous onslaught of Russian forces from the north has also pushed weary Ukrainian defenses towards the banks of the Siversky Donets River. Following Russian airstrikes and a massive artillery barrage on Lyman, Ukrainian forces have had to retreat south again.
Continuous attempts by Russia to cross the river and merge with the Popasna axis raise fears of a large Ukrainian group getting cut off in Sievierodonetsk-Lysychansk.
However, the latest developments indicate that the Ukrainian command decided to reinforce the Sievierodonetsk garrison, rather than withdraw. Russia has to get through over 20 kilometers of fighting to close the pocket.
kyivindependent.com/...
2. Scholz & Macron accommodated Putin in spreading his lies "that the Russian Armed Forces are strictly observing the norms of international humanitarian law". We all know that is not true. Hang up when anybody lies like that to you!
3. Putin proceeded with his lies: He "spoke about the systematic work being carried out to establish peaceful life in Mariupol and other liberated cities in Donbass." We all know that Putin has levelled them to the ground & murdered tens of thousands of civilians.
4. More Putin lies: "Special attention was paid to the progress on the negotiation track, which has been stalling through Kiev’s fault. Vladimir Putin reaffirmed the Russian side’s openness to the resumption of dialogue."
5. Putin propagates the destruction of Ukraine: "The President of Russia was critical of the continued dangerous practice of pumping Ukraine with Western weapons, cautioning against the risks of the country’s further destabilisation and aggravation of the humanitarian crisis."
6. Putin also lied about Russia's blockade of the Black Sea: "Putin explained the real reasons for the unstable food supplies, saying that the disruptions were due to Western countries’ erroneous economic and financial policies, as well as their anti-Russia sanctions."
7. Putin also lied about Russia's policy: "Russia, on the other hand, is ready to help find options for unhindered grain exports, including the export of Ukrainian grain from the Black Sea ports."
Why do Macron & Scholz assist Putin in isolating Ukraine & propagating his lies. Are they dumb? They do not serve their nations by ridiculing themselves & they split the EU and the West. Why not leave that to Orban & Nehammer?
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Some mistakenly think that for mass murder to qualify as genocide a certain number of victims needs to be reached. No. Let's look at the official definition of genocide by the UN. It is two-fold. It has a mental element and a physical element. 2/
Let's start with the physical:
a. "Killing members of the group" - both civilian and military victims count, and there are plenty of both. Bucha, Irpen, Borodyanka, Mariupol. We still don't know how many dead are in the occupied territories of Ukraine. The list is long. 3/
b. "Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group" 4/
c. "Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part" - Mariupol is 95% destroyed, Kharkiv was indiscriminately shelled until the Russians were pushed back, missile strikes. 5/
d. "Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group" - Zelenskyy: "Russian troops have destroyed or damaged nearly 400 healthcare institutions: hospitals, maternity wards, outpatient clinics." Remember the Mariupol maternity ward? 6/
e. "Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group" - 121 000 (one hundred twenty-one thousand) children taken to Russia as of April 13. 7/
The number grew to 181 000 (one hundred and eighty thousand) "evacuate" children as of May 2. Adoption rules were also significantly simplified in Russia recently. 8/
Hence, every single requirement on the list for the physical part of the UN definition of genocide is sadly satisfied. All victims, or virtually all, are Ukrainians, which satisfies the deliberate targeting of a group of "a national, ethnical, racial or religious" trait 9/
Obviously, I am providing only some evidence for every point. I am not a legal professional and Twitter is hardly the platform for legal case building. This thread is to prove a point. Now let's get to the mental part or intent, dolus specialis. 10/
The intent is difficult to establish. However, it is not the case with Russia. They have been quite vocal and clear about their plans for Ukraine - they've been consistently denying the country's existence on state TV. Here is an example: 11/
In a since-deleted article on RIA Novosti, a Russian state media outlet, the Russians declared their intent: "...Ukraine will no longer exist as anti-Russia. Russia is recovering its historical completeness, gathering the Russian world, the Russian people together." 12/
And the Russian people are "...in their totality Velikorossy, Belorussians, and Malorossy." Velikorossy, or Great Russians, are what the Russian are calling themselves in this article. Malorossy, or Little Russians, are Ukrainians. This terminology is of old imperial origin. 13/
However, such terminology has been popular among the Russian irredentist circles since the 1990s. And is now adopted by the official authorities, though not openly. Though the article got removed, the Internet remembers. 14/
The Russians were either stupefied by their own propaganda or they severely underestimated the Ukrainians. They are filled with intense hate against the resistance. So much so that they openly call for the murder of two million Ukrainians on state TV
15/
The speaker is not some random wackjob. His name is Aleksey Zhuravlev, he is a member of the Russian State Duma and chairman of the Rodina party. Besides he is first deputy chair of the Duma defense committee and a member of the national defense and security budget committee 16/
Zhuravlev started off his political career in post-Soviet Russia in the ethnocentric The Congress of ethnic Russian Communes. In the early 2000s, he joined Putin's United Russia and started working for the more extreme offshoot Rodina, where Rogozin is one of the founders. 17/
Politicians like him have been used by the Kremlin to probe the public for more extreme ideas and generally could be considered harbingers of the Kremlin's plans. Kremlin's chief herald and court jester position was recently vacated with the death of Vladimir Zhirinovsky. 18/
However, nothing signals intent more than Putin's February 21 speech and Ukraine's history of Holodomor combined. According to Putin: "So, I will start with the fact that modern Ukraine was entirely created by Russia or, to be more precise, by Bolshevik, Communist Russia." 19/
He also added: "...the union republics did not have any sovereign rights, none at all. The practical result was the creation of a tightly centralised and absolutely unitary state..." 20/
"...it is a great pity that the fundamental and formally legal foundations of our state were not promptly cleansed of the odious and utopian fantasies inspired by the revolution, which are absolutely destructive for any normal state..." 21/
"...The virus of nationalist ambitions is still with us, and the mine laid at the initial stage to destroy state immunity to the disease of nationalism was ticking. As I have already said, the mine was the right of secession from the Soviet Union." 22/
Putin's revanchist speech should be viewed through the lens of Holodomor, a Moscow engineered famine to reduce Ukraine's population as a rebellious colony. Putin claimed that the Ukrainians and Russians are "one people." He gave them an option of assimilation. 23/
However, should they resist, which they are, the alternative is death. Putin's Feb 21 speech also lays out the Kremlin roadmap for future conquests - every single former Soviet colony is a legitimate target for the Russians. 24/
Every former Soviet colony is an internationally recognized sovereign state, yet they are infected with "the disease of nationalism." Let me give you the list: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan... 25/
...Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan (going counterclockwise on the Mercator projection). They, the collective Putin, decided to start with Ukraine. And now Ukraine is resisting, holding back the floodgate of Russian fascist imperialism.
Дякую за ваш опір та відвагу
End of thread. 26/
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