When I first wrote about the town of Popasna on April 16, I had absolutely no idea that this was an important military stronghold for Ukraine, or that it would become the focus of Russian attention for the following month. I stumbled across the town in a list of locations, looked it up where everyone looks things up—Wikipedia—and realized it had an interesting history. Popasna had been captured by Russian forces in 2014, recaptured by Ukrainian forces just three months later, and stayed in Ukrainian hands when a neighboring town, Pervomaisk, was captured a second time by pro-Russian separatists.
I then took the next step, pulled these two towns up on Google Earth, and started looking at that small strip of land that separated them. Sure enough, what had clearly been unremarkable farmland eight years ago, had since then been crisscrossed by trenches and dotted with bunkers. The images were good enough that you could even see how the short stretch of road separating Popasna and Pervomaisk was dotted by a pattern of mines.
It was easy to imagine a certain tragic romance around these places. Surely there were families who lived in Popasna after leaving behind parents or grandparents in Pervomaisk. There must have been sweethearts severed by the line running between these towns. Friends and business partners could look out a window and see the place they used to meet for coffee on Tuesdays, or go to church on Sundays. Only now that place was on the other side of mines, trenches, and machine gun nests.
Since 2014, the population of Popasna, which had been 20,000 before the first Russian invasion, had declined. There were only a handful of functioning stores remaining in the town and an unknown, but much smaller, population when the second invasion began. However, I had no idea how fortified the town had really become, or what would happen again, and again, and again over the following weeks as Russia and Ukraine engaged in what I cheekily named the Popasna Polka.
Thanks to the deep, heavily fortified bunkers Ukraine had built in and around Popasna, they could draw Russian forces into the city, then attack them with artillery kept well back from the line. That tactic accounted for the repeating pattern in which Russian forces announced they had entered Popasna, then announced that they had entered Popasna, then announced that they had entered Popasna.
But when Russian troops entered Popasna on May 6, there were few Ukrainain forces left to oppose them. You could see this coming. For the better part of a month, Russia had 7 Battalion Tactical Groups concentrating their fire on Popasna. When Russia began withdrawing forces from Mariupol, many of those that left the ruined city came to join these other BTGS in battering this much smaller town.
On NASA’s FIRMS fire map, you could watch Popasna being slowly reduced. At first Russia was firing all around the city. Then it was firing into the west and the north. The last two days before Russia rolled in to Popasna in force, all of the artillery had been directed at just a few remaining blocks on the slightly higher ground at the north end of the town. Reports from evacuees who escaped the town in its last days stated that there was not a single building, anywhere in the town, still standing.
Though Chechen forces are now engaged in using Popasna for what seems to be their principle role in the war—making propaganda videos in which they chuckle over the idea of how cruel they can be to Ukrainians—indications are that all but a handful of fighters left the ruins of the town on Friday evening as the barrage of shells finally compromised the last bunkers. Surviving Ukrainian forces withdrew to the north and the west of Popasna, to positions that local officials describe as “prepared fallbacks.” However, it's not clear where those positions might be.
I had no idea when I started writing about it, but the reason Popasna was so important was that, in this part of the field, at least, it held the southern flank. Having turned that flank, Russian forces now threaten forces along the line that runs toward Severodonetsk and Lysychansk, which are already being pressed from the north and east.
Maybe Ukraine does have well-prepared fallback positions that will make Popasna, for all the effort that Russia put into it, just two miles of road won at a very high price. Maybe the increased presence of Western weapons in this part of the battlefield will prevent Russia from being able to exploit this breakthrough. Maybe Russia’s own repeatedly demonstrated incompetence will be enough.
There’s not really any evidence that Russia did anything new at Popasna. It didn’t organize a large scale movement or a swift operation using combined arms. It just pounded with artillery until there was nothing left to pound, which has been the Russian tactic going back through decades.
But there are definitely reasons to be concerned about what’s going on in this area, concerns that only increased on Sunday with Russia’s capture of the town of Nyzhnie, about 20 kilometers northeast of Popasna.
Kharkiv
If what’s happening at Popasna is all sad news, what’s happening north of Kharkiv is anything but. Though there have definitely been some reversals — Ukraine lost several vehicles in what seems to been ill-considered attempt to drive into first Kozacha Lopan then a couple of miles south near Tsupivka—everything else happening in the area seems to be falling in the direction of the folks waving blue and yellow flags.
Russian forces are reportedly digging in near Kozacha Lopan, which is less than 4km from the Russian border. The intention appears to be to protect the large border crossing just a few kilometers to the east at Nekhoteevka. This crossing became famous early in the war as satellite imagery showed Russian convoys passing through on their way to assault Kharkiv. Now Russia seems to be anxious to keep Ukrainian forces back from the area just in case they get a taste for going the other direction—the Russian base at Belgorod is just 30km up the road. And honestly, that has to be tempting.
In any case, Nekhoteevka has mostly lost its value as a place to bring Russian materiel into Ukraine, as Ukraine now blocks every route coming from that crossing.
What continues to be most puzzling, and interesting, is what’s going on along the western bank of the Siverskyi Donets River. Ukrainian forces raced into position at Staryi Saltiv last week, surprising observers — and the Russians. From there, they shelled the town of Rubiznhe to the north, where a bridge crossed the river. However, that bridge has now been blown, reportedly by Russian forces. Which makes the latest NASA FIRMS data very interesting.
Just for this map, I’ve added some fire icons to denote areas where NASA FIRMS data indicates hot spots on May 6-7. Two of these are west of Staryi Saltiv, where Ukraine appears to be working to clear towns along another highway and potentially cut off Russian forces who still appear to be occupying the area around Petrivka.
But another big area of fire is now in the area east of Starytsya, well to the north of previous activity and quite close to the Russian border. What’s at Starytsya? One of two bridges across the Siverskyi Donets in this whole area of Ukraine still believed to be intact.
Just as it did at Rubiznhe a few days ago, Ukraine appears to be pounding the area around the bridge. Also worth noting, Ukraine no longer seems to be hitting positions around Rubiznhe or the bridge to the east, both of which were shelled earlier in the week.
Does this mean that Ukraine is racing up the west side of the river, and is now closing on Starytsya? That’s completely unknown.
What is clear is that Russia’s main site for moving men and equipment into Ukraine at this point is less than 10km east of Starytsya at Vovchansk. But if Ukraine wants to reach Vovchansk soon, they need to take an intact bridge.
Izyum
What’s happening at Izyum continues to be fast moving and complex. As was discussed on Friday, Ukraine seems to be operating primarily in the area immediately northwest of the city, where a complex network of roads provides access that’s difficult to cut off and forests provide good cover. Fires within that forest make it difficult to tell where there are areas of fresh firing, and just areas of plain old fire.
In any case, we can hope this is true.
Monday, May 9, 2022 · 5:05:43 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
Reports now indicate that Russia blew up the bridge at Starytsya sometime on Saturday evening. They may have also blown up the bridge a mile to the north at Ohirtseve, leaving no intact bridges in northern Ukraine.
Both of these reports are unconfirmed.
Monday, May 9, 2022 · 5:19:31 PM +00:00
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Mark Sumner
There are now reports that Ukrainian forces have taken Rubiznhe (the one north of Kharkiv, not the one east of Izyum, or any of the other Rubiznhes) and have entered Lyptsi. Ukraine still appears to be shelling positions just north of Lyptsi, which may now represent the edge of Russian control. Updated map coming soon.